$SOL #solana
Current Key Data and Indicator Analysis
1. Price and Volatility:
- Current Price 197.76 (-8.99%), 24h Low 191.85, Marked Price 197.61, Price has fallen below the BOLL Middle Line 206.93, approaching the Lower Line 195.70, short-term entering the oversold area. If rebounding, must break through the Middle Line to confirm trend reversal.
- Moving Averages bear arrangement (MA5 crosses below MA10), short-term trend is bearish, need to pay attention to whether it can stabilize near the Lower Line.
- 24h Trading Volume 7.357 billion (significant increase), but need to distinguish whether it is panic selling or bottom-fishing funds entering, sustained volume is key.
- K (38.87), D (39.08), J (38.46), approaching oversold but not extreme, rebound requires volume cooperation.
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Recent Trend Forecast (1-7 days)
- Direction Judgment:
- Rebound Scenario: If the price stabilizes in the 195-190 range and is accompanied by volume, a rebound testing of the 206-212 range may occur, with the Middle Line 206.93 as key resistance.
- Continued Decline: If it breaks below 189.21, it may accelerate to 180-175 (long-term trend line support).
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Medium to Long-term Trend Forecast (1-3 months)
1. Technical Driven:
- Long-term upward trend remains intact (1 year +101.88%), but need to verify whether the 180-190 range can form a medium-term bottom.
- If the price stabilizes and breaks through the Middle Line 206.93, it is expected to recover to the 212-218 range, re-challenging the previous high of 235.62.
2. Target Price:
- Conservative Expectation: After stabilizing above 190, rebound target 210-220;
- Risk Warning: If it falls below 180, it may deeply retrace to 160-150 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level).
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Operation Suggestions
- Short-term Strategy:
- Long Position: Lightly test long in the 190-195 range, strictly stop loss at 188, target 200-206;
- Short Position: If it rebounds to 206-212 without volume cooperation, can short, target 195-190, stop loss at 215.
- Long-term Strategy:
- Observe whether the 180-190 range can stabilize, confirm bottom signals before gradually positioning;
- If it breaks below 180, pause bottom-fishing, wait for right-side signals in the 160-150 range.
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Support and Resistance Updates
- Core Support: 195.70 → 191.85 → 180.00
- Core Resistance: 206.93 → 218.15 → 235.62
Risk Warning:
- Market panic emotions have not fully released, need to beware of liquidity traps;
- Bitcoin correlation risk is increasing.
