$SOL #solana
SOL current key data and indicator analysis
Price and volatility:
- Current price 217.73 (-6.79%), 24h minimum 212.36, mark price 217.74, short-term accelerated decline and fell below BOLL middle track 223.78, entering the oversold area.
- The price is close to BOLL lower track 212.94. If it cannot stand firm, it may further fall to the 210-209 area.
- 24h turnover 2.967 billion (continuously shrinking), market liquidity is declining, and we need to be vigilant against the violent fluctuations caused by insufficient liquidity.
- MA(5): 794,233, MA(10): 781,754, the short-term moving average crosses the long-term moving average, and the short position arrangement signal is strengthened.
Recent trend forecast
- Direction judgment:
- Rebound scenario: If the price stabilizes in the 212-209 area and is accompanied by a large volume, it may rebound to test the 218-224 range, with the middle track 223.78 as the key resistance.
- Continuation of decline: If the volume continues to shrink and falls below 209, it may accelerate to the psychological level of 200-195.
Medium- and long-term trend forecast
1. Technical drivers:
- The long-term upward trend has not been broken (1 year +114.97%), but it is necessary to verify whether the 200-210 area can form a medium-term bottom.
- If the price stabilizes and breaks through the middle track 223.78, it is expected to repair to the 234-240 range and re-challenge the previous high of 256.99.
2. Target price:
- Conservative expectation: After stabilizing at 210, the rebound target is 230-240;
- Risk warning: If 200 is lost, it may fall back to 180-190 (long-term trend line support).
Operation suggestions
- Short-term strategy:
- Long order: Try to buy with a light position in the 210-212 range, strictly stop loss 208, target 218-223.
- Short order: If it rebounds to 218-223 without volume, you can short, target 212-209, stop loss 225.
- Long-term strategy:
- Observe whether the 200-210 area can stabilize, and arrange in batches after confirming the bottom signal;
- If it falls below 200, stop bottom hunting and wait for the right signal of the 180-190 area.
Support and resistance update
- Core support: 212.94 → 209.97 → 200.00
- Core resistance: 223.78 → 234.62 → 244.10
Risk warning:
- Market sentiment is extremely depressed, beware of panic selling;
- Pay attention to Bitcoin linkage risks
- Changes in project fundamentals (such as on-chain activities, ecological progress) may affect long-term valuations.
