Long Position: 95,700-96,100
Long Logic: The current market is in the third wave of the fifth wave of the rebound, with strong support at 96,000-95,000 for the second wave. Therefore, entering at the gap position has a higher safety factor. Set the stop loss at 1,000-2,000 points, with odds of up to 3-5 times, manageable risk, and considerable returns.
Short Selling Position: 99,000-100,000
Short Selling Logic: Yesterday's market data showed that there was about 10 million short selling funds near the 100,000 USD integer level. This position may become the main resistance for upward movement. Additionally, the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance level is also near 100,000. Considering the integer level, large order pressure, and Fibonacci technical analysis, the short selling win rate in the 99,000-100,000 range is relatively high.
Market Analysis:
Yesterday, influenced by favorable non-farm data, the market broke through the important resistance level of 98,000 and surged to around 100,000. However, the daily close indicates that this was a false breakout, followed by another test of the important support at 96,000. Currently, the upward momentum of the market is weak, with a low probability of reversal, and it is likely still in the fifth wave of a rebound. The endpoint of the rebound may be near 105,000. It is worth noting that the current maximum pain point for options is at 100,000 USD, and there is a high probability that the market will continue to rise next week.
Summary:
Long Position: Enter in the 95,700-96,100 range, stop loss of 1,000-2,000, odds of 3-5 times.
Short Position: Enter in the 99,000-100,000 range, with a high win rate.
Market Outlook: The fifth wave of the rebound continues, with a target of 105,000, bullish for next week.
Friendly Reminder: The market has risks, and investments should be cautious. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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