Judgement of Bitcoin (BTC) price movement for the upcoming week (March 10 - March 17) based on current market dynamics:
1. Key Support and Resistance from a Technical Perspective
Current Price Positioning:
BTC briefly dipped below the $80,000 level on March 10 but rebounded to $82,400. However, the daily level has confirmed a break below the 200-day moving average (approximately $83,200) and the support at the bottom of the ascending range ($85,000), forming a technical breakdown.
Short-term Support:
$80,000-$81,500: The psychological threshold formed by the intraday low. If it falls again, it may trigger panic selling, targeting $77,800 (Fibonacci retracement level) or even $75,000 (long-term strong support).
Key Resistance:
$83,200-85,000: The convergence zone of the daily 200-day moving average and the previous support turned resistance. If a rebound breaks through, it needs volume support;
$86,500: Weekly mid-line pressure, with significant breakout difficulty.
• Indicator Signals:
RSI Oversold: The hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) has dipped below 30, indicating short-term rebound demand, but the daily RSI remains in a downward channel, and the bearish trend has not changed;
MACD Divergence: The 4-hour MACD bearish energy bars are shrinking; if a bottom divergence forms, it may trigger a rebound, but it needs to confirm a price stabilization above $83,000.
2. Market Sentiment and Fund Direction
• Panic Selling and Leverage Liquidation:
Recent declines have led to a large number of highly leveraged long positions being liquidated, with open interest (OI) dropping from 500,000 BTC to 380,000 BTC, and liquidation amounts exceeding $1.5 billion. The current price has fallen below the cost line for short-term holders ($85,000-$90,000), and further selling pressure may concentrate around $80,000.
• Institutional Fund Outflow:
The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen continuous net outflows (over $200 million accumulated), combined with Trump's tariff policies causing global risk asset sell-offs, making short-term capital inflow difficult.
3. Macro Events and Potential Catalysts
• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (March 12):
If the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals (such as slowing the pace of interest rate hikes), it may boost risk asset sentiment, and BTC could rebound to $85,000; conversely, a hawkish stance will intensify market volatility.
• US Stock Market Correlation Risk:
Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq index has strengthened. If US stocks continue to decline (such as the S&P 500 breaking crucial support), BTC may test $75,000.
4. Operational Strategies and Risk Reminders
Short-term Rebound Opportunities:
Long Position Testing**: If the price stabilizes between $80,000-$81,500 and the hourly line rebounds with volume, a light long position can be taken, with a stop-loss at $78,500 and a target of $83,000-$85,000;
