I. Market dynamics and price fluctuations:
1. Short-term rebound meets resistance:
BTC reached the resistance level of $84,000 after rebounding for two consecutive days but failed to hold, currently falling back to around $83,000, with a 24-hour price fluctuation range of $80,635-$84,358, and an amplitude of about 4.5%
2. Key support and resistance levels:
Support levels: $82,700 (key support at the 4-hour level) and $80,000 (psychological level). If it falls below $82,700, it may further test $78,000-$79,640.
Resistance levels: $85,060 (daily MA30 moving average) and $86,700 (previous high). A breakthrough of $85,000 requires accompanying trading volume.
II. Technical signals
1. Overbought and weakening momentum:
The KDJ indicator shows that BTC has entered the overbought zone (KDJ value 83), and the MACD histogram is shortening, indicating a weakening of bullish strength. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting that short-term fluctuations may decrease.
2. Improvement in on-chain indicators:
The MVRV indicator (Market Value/Realized Value) has dropped to 1.5, approaching historical lows, suggesting that selling pressure from long-term holders is weakening. The miner holding index has risen to 0.85, indicating a reduced willingness to cash out by miners.
III. Macroeconomic and market sentiment
1. Positive factors:
The U.S. February CPI data has cooled down (annual decline of 2.8%), alleviating inflation concerns and boosting risk asset sentiment.
Binance received a $2 billion investment from Abu Dhabi, improving compliance and potentially boosting market confidence.
2. Risk factors:
Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut (expected in June) intertwined with policy uncertainty, leading to cautious investor sentiment.
Severe fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate and Trump's tariff policies may trigger capital outflows.
IV. Operational suggestions
1. Short-term strategy:
If the price stabilizes above $82,700 and trading volume increases,it is advisable to take a light long position, targeting $85,000.
If it falls below $82,700, it is recommended to observe or short on rallies, with support at $80,000.
2. Long-term layout:
If the price falls back to the range of $78,000-$80,000, it is advisable to build a position in batches, with a medium-term target of $100,000.
