1. Investment Recommendations and Strategies 💰
Short-Term (within 1 month): Focus on oscillation in the $0.30-$0.45 range; if it breaks through $0.50 on volume, a light long position may be pursued, targeting $0.60-$0.82; if it falls below $0.30, watch for systemic risks.
Long-Term (over 6 months): If iUSDe successfully attracts institutional funds and BTC stabilizes at $80,000, ENA may challenge $1.2-$1.5 (corresponding FDV $8-$10 billion).
Risk Control: Single position ≤5%, stop loss set below $0.28, closely monitor Federal Reserve policies and USDe on-chain data.
2. Project Fundamentals and Core Value 💻
1. Innovative Positioning and Product Logic:
ENA is the governance token of the synthetic dollar protocol Ethena, and its core product USDe achieves capital efficiency and yield capture of stablecoins through Delta neutral hedging strategies. USDe supports multi-asset collateral such as BTC/ETH/LSTs, and combines CEX short positions to hedge volatility, with an annualized yield of 8.5% (far exceeding traditional government bonds and similar DeFi products). As of March 2025, the circulation of USDe has surpassed $5.5 billion, making it the third-largest dollar stablecoin.
2. Innovation Highlights:
The first programmatic Delta neutral hedging stablecoin protocol;
Introducing the concept of 'Internet Bonds' to facilitate the flow of funds between CeFi, DeFi, and TradFi.
3. Institutional Endorsements and Financing Progress:
Ethena has raised over $119.5 million, with investors including traditional financial giants such as Dragonfly, Franklin Templeton, and PayPal Ventures. Recently partnered with World Liberty Financial (WLFI), supported by the Trump family, to promote USDe into the compliant institutional market. Completed a $100 million private placement in February 2025, with a valuation of $1.8 billion and an institutional entry cost of about $0.3.
3. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment ⭐
1. Price Trends and Key Support
Short-Term Volatility: Current quote is $0.4548, down 77% from the 2024 peak ($2), but rebounding 82% from the 2025 low ($0.25).
Technical Formations: Daily chart forming a descending wedge breakout; if it stabilizes above $0.45, it may challenge $0.82 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level); strong support below at $0.30-$0.35 (institutional cost line).
On-chain Data: New address weekly growth of 328.7%, active addresses grew by 104.6%, with 67% of holders in profit, reflecting long-term confidence.
2. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows
Derivatives Signal: Contract open interest reached $340 million, funding rates rebounded to -0.06% (previously long-term negative), easing short selling pressure.
Whale Behavior: On February 27, a whale bought 23.93 million ENA (approximately $9.7 million), while capital inflows into the DeFi sector increased during the same period.
4. Risk Factors and Short-Term Challenges 💥
1. Token Unlocking Selling Pressure
On March 5, 2025, 2.07 billion ENA will be unlocked (accounting for 39% of circulation, worth $760 million), with core contributors and investors holding 99.9%. If 50% is sold, a short-term decline of 10-15% may occur, requiring attention to on-chain data (net inflow to exchanges).
2. Stablecoin Business Risks
Funding Rate Risk: In a bear market, short positions may erode profits due to negative funding rates, affecting the attractiveness of USDe;
CEX Liquidity Risk: The automatic deleveraging (ADL) mechanism may interfere with the execution of Delta neutral strategies.
5. Future Catalysts and Long-Term Potential 🚀
1. Compliance and TradFi Entry
iUSDe is about to launch: allowing traditional institutions to hold crypto assets through off-chain custody, expected to attract incremental funds in Q2;
Multi-Chain Expansion: Supporting public chains such as Solana and Avalanche in Q1 2025 to expand the user base.
2. Ecosystem Collaboration and Valuation Space
DeFi Integration: USDe has connected with over 30 protocols including Aave and Curve, ranking fourth in TVL (only after AAVE and Lido);
Valuation Benchmarking: If USDe's circulation exceeds $10 billion, ENA's FDV ($5.6 billion) may converge towards MakerDAO (MKR FDV $9 billion).
