It has been two months since the last perspective, and looking back now, it truly seems there are no issues, and it has indeed broken historical highs.
However, at this stage, Trump is already in office, and various favorable policies have been implemented correspondingly. The market has already digested these positives early on, and without new forces driving it, it will be hard for the market to have much vigor going forward.
The main reason lies with Trump; it is said that success and failure both rest with him. Currently, the market, including the entire US stock market, is facing uncertainty regarding Trump's policies. Additionally, from the current large non-farm payroll data, we can see that the economy is very healthy.
The uncertainty of Trump (in terms of policies and trade wars) and a healthy economy will make the Federal Reserve bolder and less anxious to cut interest rates. They can take a closer look. In an unfriendly external environment, it will be hard for Bitcoin to find new momentum; more likely, it will just fluctuate, leading many profitable individuals to gradually exit the market. If buying pressure fails to keep up, it will result in a downward fluctuation process.
As the saying goes, 'no breaking, no standing.' If we want a good market to emerge, all prior issues need to be detonated, providing appropriate prices, or we must wait for the market to begin to understand Trump's policy trajectory, after which stability will set in, allowing for new opportunities.
Based on these reasons, I personally suggest to watch more and act less. The outlook for the future market is not very friendly.
