The current cryptocurrency market is undergoing structural transformation, and the traditional concept of a 'bull market' is facing redefinition. The Bitcoin halving cycle and the ETF capital entry mechanism have essentially endowed this round of market activity with a new market logic.
As the foundational asset of the crypto market, Bitcoin's dominant bull and bear cycles have completely reshaped the market operation rules. Historical data shows that the altcoin market is essentially driven by liquidity spillover created by Bitcoin's bull market, and its profit opportunities depend entirely on two core factors: the overall liquidity saturation of the market and the efficiency of Bitcoin's profit funds being transmitted to other coins. It is noteworthy that the Bitcoin spot ETF approved by the SEC is directly channeling incremental funds from the traditional financial sector into core crypto assets, and this capital composition, which is vastly different from traditional crypto funds, effectively severs the funding transmission path.
The shift in market characteristics has directly compressed the survival space for retail investors. Currently, 98% of altcoin projects are still fundamentally high-risk assets, and their valuation support relies on storytelling simulation economic models and funding takeover games. Data indicates that during this cycle, Bitcoin's market capitalization share has consistently remained above 53%, far exceeding the market structure of the previous cycle, fully confirming the layered effect of capital flow. The negative yield rate for ordinary investors frequently participating in altcoin trading exceeds 83%, and the contract leverage liquidation rate has reached a staggering 93.6%.
Rational participation strategies should strictly adhere to three principles: First, prioritize allocating Bitcoin as a means of value storage; second, eliminate leveraged contracts and other derivative instruments; third, allocate only a small amount of entertainment funds to altcoins. The proportion of asset allocation should be inversely related to risk tolerance; the more stable an ordinary investor's income, the more they should avoid high-risk varieties. It is worth noting that 98% of contract traders ultimately become liquidity providers in the market, which is essentially a negative-sum wealth transfer game.
Faced with a new ecosystem dominated by traditional financial capital, if retail investors do not consciously restructure their cognition and continue to rely on past experiences to participate in the market, their survival dilemmas may persist for a long time.