Macro Interpretation: This time we will talk about the analysis of #美联储利率决议 . This week, the Federal Reserve will have its last interest rate decision this year. The market is paying close attention and generally expects that the Federal Reserve will continue to #降息 25 basis points. This expectation coincides with the general view of Wall Street, indicating that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain an accommodative monetary policy.
Economists at Goldman Sachs Group hold similar views and point out that the Fed may hint at a slower pace of easing in the future at this week's meeting. They predict that although the Fed will still cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, the pace of subsequent rate cuts will slow significantly, and may even be suspended in January next year. Goldman Sachs economists believe that the reason for this shift is that the unemployment rate is lower than expected, while inflation is still above the target level. Therefore, the Fed needs to strike a balance between maintaining economic growth and controlling inflation.
At the same time, Nick Timiraos of the New Fed News Agency also expressed his own views. He believes that there are differences within the Fed on the issue of interest rate cuts. Hawkish officials are worried that interest rate cuts will aggravate inflation, while dovish officials are more concerned about the risk of slowing economic growth. Faced with such differences, Fed Chairman Powell needs to strike a balance in policy adjustments to ensure the rationality and effectiveness of monetary policy.
From the perspective of market performance, the current performance of the US labor market is delicate, with both recruitment and layoff rates at low levels, relatively stable economic growth but rising unemployment. In addition, some interest rate-sensitive industries such as the housing market have not yet fully benefited from the impact of the interest rate cut policy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve needs to consider a variety of factors when adjusting its monetary policy to ensure the rationality and pertinence of the policy.
Analysis of the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on the crypto market: The Fed's interest rate cut policy has also had a certain impact on the crypto market. On the one hand, the interest rate cut will help improve market liquidity and reduce financing costs, which may drive an increase in trading volume in the crypto market. On the other hand, the interest rate cut may also cause some funds to flow into the traditional financial market, causing certain capital diversion pressure on the crypto market.
In the long run, the Fed's monetary policy adjustments will have a profound impact on the future development of the crypto market. With the continuous changes in the global economy and the increasing complexity of the financial market, the crypto market needs to pay close attention to the policy dynamics of the Federal Reserve and other central banks in order to formulate reasonable investment strategies and risk prevention measures.
BTC Analysis:
#BTC☀ Last week, the market fell first and then rose, falling twice from the lowest level near $101,350 to the trend line of $94,150, which was in line with our prediction last week that "the closing price is temporarily above the rising trend line, and if it does not break, it is expected to continue the recent overall volatile upward trend." Then it started to rebound-oscillate-rise, and the highest intraday price of $106,648 hit a new record high. Last week, the U.S. stock market hit a record high and then fell back slightly, and the overall trend was relatively similar. This week is a super central bank week. The market expects that the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut is nearly 100%. A number of economic data are released intensively, and more linkage performance is expected. The intraday rise is also mainly affected by #特朗普 's re-promotion of establishing #比特币战略储备 .
After the daily line closed with a medium-sized positive in the morning, it is expected that the overall trend will rise first and then pull back. It has now reached a record high. There is no reference to the historical resistance level except the recent high point. The support below refers to the weekend correction low of US$100,610 and US$99,212. Before it falls below, the market is likely to continue the bullish trend. The trend indicator at the 4-hour level has shown a bullish signal since December 12, and it can be considered to maintain the right-side trading idea of mainly buying on pullbacks.
