This week's key macro events and analysis of the cryptocurrency market forecasts:

The core contradiction in the cryptocurrency market this week revolves around the interaction between U.S. economic data and policy dynamics. According to Coinank data, Friday's employment and unemployment rate data will become a key guide for monetary policy expectations: if the data is weak (such as job growth below expectations or an increase in the unemployment rate), it may strengthen market bets on four interest rate cuts within the year, thereby boosting risk assets; conversely, if the data is strong, it will intensify concerns about the duration of high interest rates, suppressing market sentiment. Currently, BTC implied volatility has dropped to a low of 45%, indicating a lack of consensus among investors on short-term direction, but this also lays the groundwork for a rebound in volatility after the data is released.

The impact of Trump's policies on the market remains persistent. Previously, his tariff policies led to significant fluctuations in cryptocurrency assets (with a drop significantly greater than traditional assets), while recent easing of rhetoric has triggered a reversal in the market. This policy uncertainty enhances the correlation between cryptocurrency assets and traditional risk assets, especially against the backdrop of a weak U.S. stock market without signs of recession, where funds may accelerate rotation between the stock-bond market and the cryptocurrency market.

The specific impact path on the cryptocurrency market may exhibit bidirectional volatility characteristics: on the one hand, the interest rate cut expectations brought about by weak economic data may push BTC to test the psychological barrier of $100,000; on the other hand, the resilience of the job market may continue the current oscillation pattern. In the medium term, caution is needed regarding potential black swan events in policy (such as new tariff measures) and repeated adjustments in liquidity expectations. Investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in hedging demand in the options market and the sustainability of ETF capital inflows, as these two indicators will reflect institutional capital's assessment of systemic risk.