The exchange balance of #BTC reached a nearly seven-year low last week, briefly rebounding to 2.492 million coins before maintaining a tightening trend, down 12% from the cycle low in 2018.

In contrast, institutional funds continue to pour in: Coinank data shows that Bitcoin attracted $3.2 billion in a single week, marking the largest net inflow since Q1 2024, creating a special market structure of "existing tightening - incremental inflow."

On-chain anomalous indicators reveal that the whale ratio on exchanges (the proportion of large transfers) plummeted from 0.51 to 0.36 within ten days, exposing the retail trading volume proportion that surpassed 64%, marking the first occurrence of a "retail-driven" price breakout since the 2021 bull market.

This round of liquidity fluctuation indicates that the median holding period for long-term holders (LTH) has surpassed 155 days, forming a "on-chain lock-up effect" for value storage; compliant platforms like Coinbase continue to see positive spot premiums, indicating that institutions are hedging against the insufficient liquidity risk of exchanges through over-the-counter channels; furthermore, the ratio of open futures contracts to spot trading volume has risen to a historical extreme of 3.7, with leveraged funds dominating short-term pricing power. For the crypto ecosystem, while the shrinking exchange balance reduces the risk of concentrated selling pressure, it may exacerbate liquidity crises under extreme market conditions. If combined with the high-leverage state of the derivatives market, daily fluctuations of over 5% may become the norm. It is worth noting that the resonance effect formed by the wave of retail entry and institutional allocation demand may push Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio to break through the 70% threshold, further squeezing the survival space of mid and small-cap tokens.