Catalog:

The #BTC☀ contract liquidation map, visually reflecting risk control positions.

The #山寨指数 peaked at 88 and then fell back, aligning with the forecasted risk area.

Token #大额解锁 data forecast.

Fundamental hotspots interpretation: Focus on #CPI数据 inflation data.

BTC contract liquidation map, visually reflecting risk control positions.

According to CoinAnk's latest data, if BTC prices break above 100,000 USD, there will be 1.332 billion USD worth of short positions liquidated.

If BTC prices fall below 93,840 USD, there will be 14 USD worth of long positions liquidated.

The altcoin index peaked at 88 and then fell back, aligning with the forecasted risk area.

According to CoinAnk indicators, the current value of the altcoin index is around 63. In last week's report, we mentioned that 'if the altcoin index exceeds 80, we need to be cautious as it approaches the risk area, with the previous high at 85.' Two weeks ago, we noted that 'the short-term status is healthy, but if it exceeds 85 in the future, caution is needed.' This round peaked at 88 before falling back, aligning with our risk area forecast. The overall crypto market is expected to correct tonight, although BTC did not create a new low, the significant drop in altcoins is the reason why the scale of liquidations far exceeds that of the 312 period.

Most sectors in the crypto market have corrected, with declines exceeding 10%. Layer 1, Layer 2 sectors, Meme, RWA, and DeFi sectors led the decline, while BTC, ETH, and CeFi sectors were relatively resilient.

Token large unlock data forecast:

This week, APT, STRK, and SEI will undergo a large one-time token unlock, releasing a total value exceeding 200 million USD.

Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on December 12 at 0:00, worth approximately 163 million USD, accounting for 2.11% of the circulating supply.

Starknet (STRK) will unlock 64 million tokens on December 15 at 8:00, worth approximately 49.51 million USD, accounting for 2.83% of the circulating supply.

Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on December 15 at 20:00, worth approximately 38.24 million USD, accounting for 1.39% of the circulating supply.

Cardano (ADA) will unlock 18.53 million tokens on December 11 at 8:00, worth approximately 22.05 million USD, accounting for 0.05% of the circulating supply.

This week, pay attention to the negative effects of these tokens due to unlocks, avoid spot trading and seek short opportunities in contracts. Among them, APT's unlock volume and scale are relatively large, so take extra notice.

Hotspot interpretation: Focus on CPI inflation data.

The U.S. will announce significant inflation data tonight. As an important indicator of the price level of consumer goods and services, changes in the CPI have profound impacts on investors, consumers, and policymakers. The dollar, #黄金 , and the U.S. stock and crypto markets will all react.

This CPI data is highly anticipated as it is the last significant inflation data before the Federal Reserve's final monetary policy meeting in 2024. The market generally expects the inflation rate for November to rebound, rising from last month's 2.6% to 2.7%, while core CPI is expected to remain in the range of 3.2% to 3.3%. Recent market performance shows that gold prices have risen significantly, reflecting investors' concerns about geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market has seen declines as investors remain cautious ahead of the inflation data release.

Changes in CPI data have significant implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If CPI data unexpectedly rises, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts earlier than expected, or even reverse previous easing policies. This is because high inflation can erode the purchasing power of currency, posing threats to economic growth and social stability. Therefore, the Federal Reserve needs to closely monitor the trends in CPI and adjust monetary policy accordingly. Additionally, CPI data also has broad implications for the global economy. High inflation may lead to increased import costs, pushing up production costs and consumer prices, putting pressure on the global economy. Conversely, if CPI data is stable or below expectations, it may help alleviate market concerns about inflation and boost investor confidence.

CPI data also has significant impacts on the crypto market. On one hand, if CPI data rises and triggers Federal Reserve policy adjustments, it may lead to a decrease in investors' risk appetite, which could exert pressure on the crypto market. On the other hand, if CPI data meets or falls below expectations, it may boost investor sentiment and drive the crypto market upwards. It is important to note that the crypto market is influenced by various factors, including market sentiment, regulatory policies, technological innovations, and its own narrative logic. While we focus on the data, we should also pay attention to the industry itself.