The easing of dollar hegemony and the rotation of crypto assets are reshaping the value logic of three major trends.

Macroeconomic Interpretation: Although there has been some progress in US-China trade negotiations, Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates that the downward trend in the dollar/Asian currency exchange rate is difficult to reverse. This judgment is based on two underlying logics: the consensus among institutions for diversified investment in US assets and the ongoing selling of dollars by Asian exporters in exchange for local currency, forming a market inertia. Notably, UBS Group has disclosed that its high-net-worth clients are accelerating the reduction of dollar assets in favor of increasing allocations to gold and cryptocurrencies. This 'de-dollarization' strategy forms a hedge against more than 20 new trade agreements that the Trump administration may propose. If trade protection policies intensify, holding non-sovereign credit-backed crypto assets will become a natural choice for capital hedging.

The US SEC's cautious attitude towards the physical redemption mechanism of Bitcoin ETFs exposes the deep contradictions between the traditional financial system and the crypto ecosystem. Although the physical redemption model proposed by institutions like BlackRock theoretically improves ETF operating efficiency, regulators prefer the conservative strategy of cash redemption. This regulatory lag has resulted in collective approval delays for products like Grayscale Litecoin Trust and Solana Trust. However, the policy balance is shifting: two senators have jointly urged the Treasury Department to adjust cryptocurrency tax rules, pointing out the absurdity of taxing unrealized gains under current accounting standards. If the Treasury can clarify tax details before the third quarter, it may release the entry momentum of billions in institutional funds.

CoinAnk on-chain data shows that in the past three weeks, net inflows into the crypto market have reached $35 billion, a figure close to the capital scale at the beginning of the 2021 bull market. Interestingly, the timing of capital inflow is highly correlated with the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy—CME interest rate observations show that the market's expectation of maintaining rates in June is 91.8%, and this monetary policy stalemate has weakened the attractiveness of traditional fixed-income assets. On a more micro level, UBS clients' trend of allocating cryptocurrency alongside gold confirms the upgrade of Bitcoin's 'anti-inflation narrative' to 'store of value' attributes. When mainstream institutions begin to hold BTC with the logic of allocating gold, its market cap ceiling has opened up a significant increase space.

Trump's approval rating has risen to 44%, bringing new policy variables, and his trade team is rumored to announce more than 20 new agreements, which may exacerbate currency market volatility. Historical data shows that whenever the dollar index falls by 1%, Bitcoin's monthly average increase reaches 7.2%. If Asian currencies continue to strengthen, triggering a sell-off of dollar assets, the crypto market may become the largest liquidity reservoir. On a technical level, if BTC can stabilize above the key level of $100,000, it will attract CTA strategy funds to trigger programmed buying, forming a short-term positive feedback mechanism.

The current market is at the intersection of the deconstruction of traditional financial models and the reconstruction of the crypto ecosystem. The approval progress of Bitcoin ETFs, tax details from the Treasury, and a shift in Federal Reserve policy constitute three major observation indicators; any breakthrough in a single variable could trigger a qualitative change in the market. For institutional investors, the allocation weight of crypto assets has shifted from 'experimental holdings' to 'strategic allocation', and this cognitive shift may be historically more significant than short-term price fluctuations. When $35 billion votes with real money to choose the crypto market, we may be witnessing the moment of value awakening for digital gold.

According to CoinAnk AI intelligent analysis, the BTC 4H market analysis report is as follows:

Main Support Level: 100678 USDT

Main Resistance Level: 104913 USDT

Current Trend: Oscillating with a bullish bias

Detailed Explanation:

Technical Indicators Summary:

Moving Average System: MA5=103942.42, MA10=103407.52, MA20=103551.81, MA120=97647.38. The current price is between MA5 and MA10, and the moving average system shows a bullish arrangement, but MA5 slightly crosses below MA10, indicating some oscillation characteristics.

MACD: DIF=511.45, DEA=630.49, Histogram=-119.05. The MACD is in a death cross state, but the histogram is narrowing, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening, and the market may enter a phase of oscillation or reversal.

BOLL: Upper Band=105248.99, Middle Band=103551.81, Lower Band=101854.63. The current price is near the middle band, %B=0.54%, indicating the price is above the middle band but has not touched the upper band, showing oscillating with a bullish bias.

RSI: RSI6=52.02, RSI12=53.71, RSI14=54.43, RSI24=56.90. The RSI indicator is in a neutral zone, with no overbought or oversold signals, and market sentiment is relatively stable.

KDJ: K=65.61, D=62.50, J=71.83. The KDJ indicator is in a golden cross state, but the J line is slightly above the K and D lines, showing some bullish momentum.

Indicator Data:

Funding Rate: 0.00611500%. The funding rate is in a neutral zone, with no significant bullish or bearish sentiment, and the market sentiment is relatively stable.

Volume Change: The recent trading volume has shown fluctuations, but there has been no significant increase or decrease, indicating a general level of market participation.

Capital Flow Data: Recent net outflow of contract funds and net outflow of spot funds indicate some signs of capital withdrawal, but no obvious trend has formed.

Analysis Results

Direction: Cautiously bullish

Entry Timing: The current price is near the middle track. It is recommended to enter a long position when the price retraces to near the support level.

Stop Loss Setting: The stop loss ratio is about 3%.

Target Price Level: The target price level is set at the resistance level. If the price breaks through the resistance level, it can continue to be held, and the target return can be increased to 5%.

Note: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!