The recent expectation is that Bitcoin will break past the previous high before the election at the beginning of next month; today, Bitcoin has already surpassed $71,000, making its fourth attempt at an all-time high.
The market conditions of these days deviate from expectations; Bitcoin did not continue to decline after the technical indicators broke.
Meanwhile, with Bitcoin rising before today, most altcoins, except for a few, are relatively sluggish, with some even breaking new lows in nearly a month.
Regarding the situation with altcoins, I have thought about it. So in the last two articles, I reminded everyone: when there’s a pullback, first consider Bitcoin; be cautious with altcoins.
If Bitcoin can stabilize at this level for a longer period, the rise of altcoins will increase day by day.
Bitcoin hit 70,000 for the first time, Ethereum 4,000.
Bitcoin hit 70,000 for the second time, Ethereum 3,900.
Bitcoin hit 70,000 for the third time, Ethereum 3,300.
Bitcoin hit 70,000 for the fourth time, Ethereum 2,500.
Seeing the above statistics, it seems to be the case; Ethereum seems to be caught in a crisis. Months ago, I wrote an article stating that Ethereum's value would either be 10,000 or go to zero. This round of Ethereum is heading towards that turning point.
A long time ago, it must have been a year, I remember writing an article stating that the Ethereum series exploded too much in the last bull market, so in the early stage of this bull market, there are still many related VC tokens, but these tokens generally have high TVL.
The original statement was 'Perhaps the Ethereum series has died, which will greatly reduce the bubble in the crypto space, and the bull market will come.'
This statement is extreme, but not completely unreasonable; there are indeed too many parasites on Ethereum.
Although I had some fantasies about Ethereum when the exchange rate differences reach a certain extent later on, it was more about laying out a small sector. Even in a very poor situation, the Ethereum series can still perform worse.
Wang summarized several reasons for Ethereum's sluggish performance:
1. Vitalik focuses on women, while the foundation focuses on selling coins.
2. Before the ETF was approved, I mentioned the issue of Grayscale's 2% holdings being sold after approval, reminding everyone to pay attention. So far, Grayscale has sold over 1 million Ethereum.
3. ETHFI, LDO, ENA, BB, and a series of new and old Ethereum concepts have generated huge profits, but are also a massive bubble. ETH seems not expensive, but many large stakers have made huge profits while holding, and in a low state of ETH, the airdrops obtained from staking will also be sold. When large holders feel that the price of staking plus selling ETH is no longer suitable, they will continue to sell Ethereum, which will then affect the prices of Ethereum tokens and create a vicious cycle.
About half a month ago, a large staker sold over 10,000 Ethereum after the staking period ended; this is not an isolated case.
4. Losing the left and right arms (ICO and DeFi), regulatory issues in DeFi, and competition from public chains.
In the last round, Ethereum was almost the largest bull market, despite competition, it still dominated.
This round, mainly because SOL is too strong, along with other public chains.
In a situation where ETH has lost the advantages of ICO and DeFi, MEME cannot catch up with SOL and has no innovation, its survival space is also squeezed by the circumstances.
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This is the reason for Ethereum's recent poor performance.
So the question arises, what has passed is past; does ETH still have a chance in the future?
First, we need to see if Vitalik turns back to shore, actively innovates, and strengthens ETH's competitiveness.
We need to see when Grayscale's ETF reaches outflow balance. If the outflow does not reach balance, the institution won't give Grayscale a chance to exit at high positions. From the data, Grayscale still has 2.63 million tokens, and the outflow speed is slow, which may take a long time.
Third, we need to see the development of competing products, which rise and fall alternately.
So does Ethereum still have a chance?
Simply put: yes, but it may disappoint everyone in the short term; however, there is still hope in the long term.
Ethereum is a trillion-dollar market; no matter what, it is difficult to be knocked down, and there’s also the support of ETFs.
From the perspective of retail investors, if they are already holding high positions, they can only wait patiently; switching positions is unreasonable because the exchange rate is already too low.
If one does not hold and wants to buy the dip, the cost-performance ratio is there, but it feels like even the altcoins are better than ETH at the moment.
Recent hot topics include: fan tokens, the SOL sector, and new meme coins.
Fan tokens and new MEME are equivalent to leveraged gamblers; there's no need to focus too much, all are insider profits, and the SOL series is hot again.
The opportunities I mentioned in my article at the beginning of the month are MEME tokens and the SOL sector; currently, only RWA is underperforming.
Currently, SOL is trying to break through the resistance at $183 for the third or fourth time; I personally think the resistance is still at 190-200, and one can consider taking profits while keeping a base position.
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A news report from the U.S. states 'Investigating Tether has duped countless people, with Israel and Iran playing a double act, causing countless investors to get hurt; it's a circle filled with news and scams.
It's just finance.
As long as there is enough judgment, Wang always believes in one thing: the market will always leave regrets, but regrets will often be smoothed over by time.#BTC触及7W
