When Bitcoin was rapidly oscillating between 94,000 and 100,000, it was already repeating the trend after last April. This kind of oscillation has returned to what I previously referred to as the 'lice-shaking phase'. In this phase, altcoins are not not rising, but they are rising in a distributed manner, in batches, but the overall drop is more significant.
Today, after Trump announced the timely imposition of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the US stock market opened high and then fell.
This drop is not scary. Wang Ge has always believed that the US stock market should have a decent drop (the three major indices at least 5%). This view was actually considered as early as the end of last year.
Compared to the US stock market, looking at the drop in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin fell 8,000 points in one day, which is a bit too sensitive. Of course, there's also the appreciation of the yen and the decline in the Japanese stock market, as well as some impacts from Japan's interest rate hike, but it has still fallen too far. These risks have not just emerged today.
In the crypto circle, anything that is excessive is definitely manipulated and unreasonable.
So this drop, the 2000 points were influenced by the 'tariff' news, and the 6000 points were for harvesting futures and the contract market. This 6000 points can also easily rise back.
In the past two months, Bitcoin has mainly been oscillating and consolidating contracts. Since hitting the peak in December, the amount of liquidation in contracts has increased, averaging 200 million dollars liquidated per day, mainly from long positions.
During Bitcoin's back-and-forth oscillation process, altcoins turned into lice, most MEME coins fell by ten times. Except for a few altcoins that fell less, a small number were halved, and most fell more than three times.
Actually, a long time ago, I said that while Bitcoin is deflationary, altcoins rise together. In this round, most retail investors lost money, one because they trusted Binance, and the other because they believed in Trump.
Binance's unrestrained rapid listing and changes on MEME have trapped many retail investors in MEME.
To win votes, Trump promised a 'cryptocurrency nation'. After taking office, the 'tariff policy', 'trade protectionism', and issuing 'presidential tokens', all of which are negative for the market. The TRUMP token fell from around 90 to today's 13, collecting all the blood from retail investors and the crypto circle, mainly because this approach has exceeded the 'tacit agreement and bottom line'.
The key question has arrived.
Now, in the short term, it seems to have broken the important support of 91,000 dollars. Does that mean the bull market has ended? If it hasn't ended, what should be done?
1. First is the tariff policy. As long as it is not overly aggressive, it basically remains like this. Even if the tariff policy is implemented in early March, it shouldn't fall this much.
Since Wall Street institutions took over, they have always been more patient than retail investors. So whether the drop to 88,000 will end depends on whether a large number of opposing long positions will accumulate. If long positions continue to accumulate a lot and there are no significant favorable policies like 'interest rate cuts' or 'quantitative easing', then it is possible that after rising for a while, it will retrace again to this position.
3. Breaking support. Does the technical line mean a bear market?
As early as the end of last year, I often told many people that this bull market is a distributed bull market, meaning it will rise for a month and drop for two months. The technical lines have already shown a bear market, but given the way the bull market has proceeded in the past two years, the historical cycle has been broken, so it is no longer a 4-year bull-bear cycle, but will be a staged distributed bull market.
After experiencing two years of bull market, although it wasn't as violent as the last round, the operational method for a distributed bull market is reasonable positions, enough patience, timely profit-taking, and reducing pressure.
4. Bottom fishing. In the case of a gradual decline, be cautious. After acceleration, you can bottom fish below important support, but when Bitcoin or Ethereum reaches resistance, you still need to decisively exit, similar to the operational methods from April to August last year. In short, it's about segmentation.
Before the emergence of important indicators, this can basically be done.
5. Try to have a plan for bottom fishing.
If it's a small position, you can consider low market cap altcoins, even MEME and BRC. These are riskier, like today's REZ on Coinbase, and the previously listed B3. As long as the market cap is low enough, they can all be considered for layout.
If it's a large position for the long term, you can consider coins like Litecoin, Dogecoin, MKR, or ONDO, but you also need to see if there will be a large unlock in the future.
No matter what these go through, they will still come back, especially Litecoin. I laid out from 70-80 in this round, which I've been talking about more recently, and it's also one of the few coins that rarely loses money, plus it has stability and cost-effectiveness in the long term.
Also, regarding unlocking coins, it's not that a large unlock means they won't rise. It's just that most coins will fall infinitely between large unlocks, with a drop greater than other similar altcoins, only a few will behave like OM. So the best approach is to try not to look at coins that have recently had a large unlock.
Finance is constantly about breaking and establishing, rising and falling.
Before rising, there is falling. After falling, there will inevitably be rising. This is an unchanging truth.
I believe it's very difficult for Bitcoin to return to any position before this round of rally, and as long as there's a possibility of an ETF for altcoins passing, it will similarly drive a bull market for some altcoins.
Therefore, under reasonable layout, we can look forward to the future of Ethereum and Litecoin, as well as the future of some altcoins.
Finally, I remind everyone to try to participate in risk investments under reasonable positions. Any analysis only represents personal views and comes with certain risks. I hope everyone tries to diversify risk investments and not put all eggs in one basket. This is something I've said quite a lot in the past year.
That's all for today. During the bull market phase, many people hope to have an exchange. If you really can't handle it in the crypto circle, don't force yourself; come find me to be your mentor (see my homepage), get the latest information, lay out, embrace the bull market, improve your winning rate, and say goodbye to being trapped at high positions.
