The #inflación data in the US prepared by Bret Kenwell, US options analyst at eToro.
The data show the impact the decline in energy prices is having on inflation figures, as well as the cost of housing, which was “the factor that most influenced the monthly increase in the index for all items except of food and energy, which shows what the “stickiest” parts of inflation are.”
“This could give the Fed #FED some leeway to talk about 'higher for longer' interest rates and allows it to continue to rely on data,” he says.
Likewise, Kenwell highlights that, although prices continue to moderate and remain "far from the maximums", "the fight to return to 2% will clearly have some obstacles."
US inflation data for November was in line with expectations, although month-on-month CPI results came in slightly above expectations at 0.1% versus estimates of 0.0%.
Energy remains under pressure and continues to impact inflation, with the energy index falling 2.3% in November (after losing 2.5% in October).
More specifically, gasoline prices continue to plummet, with a decline of 6.0% compared to the previous month (compared to a drop of 5% in October).
Gasoline taxes act as an added tax on consumers, so a break at the pump helps consumers a lot at a time when they are spending on other things.
Housing was the factor that most influenced the monthly increase in the index for all items except food and energy, showing what the "stickiest" parts of inflation are.
This could give the Fed some leeway to talk about "higher for longer" interest rates and allows it to continue to rely on data.
In general, inflation continues to moderate and remains far from peaks, although the fight to return to 2% will clearly have some obstacles.
Since there is no unexpected spike in inflation in this report, investors are likely to remain focused on the timing of the first rate cut rather than concerns about another hike.
That said, the markets have been betting on lower rates for weeks and the S&P500 has already accumulated six consecutive weeks of increases.
If inflation had been lower than expected, the chances of a rate cut in March would probably have increased, options that currently sit at just above 40%.
In the absence of this data, perhaps this serves as an excuse for the market to retreat a little or, at the very least, consolidate.
However, tomorrow's update from the Fed will give us a more complete picture of what the interest rate scenario will be in 2024.
Source: Territorioblockchain.com
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation. Past performance is not an indication of future results. CFDs are leveraged products and carry a high risk to your capital
