In the midst of a global landscape marked by sharp changes and controversial political decisions, the economic scenario in the United States presents many uncertainties that force investors to rethink their strategies. Recent labor market reports indicate the creation of approximately 140,000 new jobs in March, a figure that, although slightly lower than in previous months, remains strong and helps sustain optimism in the economy. However, the strength of these indicators is compromised by uncertainty arising from government policies.
This week we will be paying attention to comments on tariffs during "Liberation Day" and the evolution of the strategy to convert certain state balance sheet assets into liquidity. The lack of clarity in trade policy and uncertainty about the direction of the economy make business planning difficult, creating a chaotic environment similar to that experienced during the pandemic.
Meanwhile, in the capital markets, there is a significant outflow of money from U.S. stocks, with flows reaching record levels in ETFs and mutual funds, a clear sign of growing investor unease. This exodus contrasts with the increasing attraction to traditional assets and safe havens, such as gold, which is consolidating as the preferred alternative in a volatile environment. Gold has experienced positive investment flows, and with a price hovering around 3000 USD per ounce, it is emerging as a strategic asset to counter political and economic uncertainty. However, the 3000 USD zone is expected to act as a short-term brake, limiting bullish moves until greater stability in government policies is achieved and confidence in the macroeconomic environment is restored.
Market sentiment, reflecting this duality, combines the strength of the labor market with distrust towards the erratic actions of the government, leading to a revaluation of gold and an exodus of capital towards international markets and assets perceived as safer. Investors, aware of the fragility of relying solely on the dollar and the internal environment, are betting on strategies that diversify their portfolios and protect them against volatility. This scenario underscores the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio and paying special attention to safe-haven assets, as political and economic uncertainty could translate into greater fluctuations in the markets.
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