vaibhavvali

Michael Terpin Bitcoin bottom- Michael Terpin now assigns a two-thirds probability that the June low near $57K marked the Bitcoin bottom. After the rapid move from the mid-$60s to approaching $77–78K, he says the bull market has likely begun. A weekly close above $80K would raise his confidence to roughly 90%. He still expects a retracement, but believes a full give-back into the low $60s is the less likely path.
Table of Contents
Aura8 Episode 75: The ContextBitcoin: From Caution to Higher ConvictionEthereum’s “White Swan” and the Short SqueezePolicy TailwindsKey TakeawaysWhat It Means Going Forward
Aura8 Episode 75: The Context
On Aura8 Episode 75, host Vaibhavv Ali (aka Vali) sat down again with Michael Terpin for a timely market update after one of the more dramatic weeks in recent months. Bitcoin had spent weeks hovering below the 200-week moving average in the low-to-mid $60K range. Within roughly 48 hours it climbed toward the high $70s, accompanied by a strong move in Ethereum that Terpin described as a “white swan.”
The conversation captured a clear shift in Terpin’s stance—from cautious accumulation while price remained below the 200-week moving average to higher conviction that the cycle bottom is likely already in.
Bitcoin: From Caution to Higher Conviction
Terpin had been tracking the 200-week moving average closely. Price action that stayed below it kept the door open to further downside, including the possibility of another test of the mid-$50s later in the year. The sharp rally changed the probabilities.
He now puts the chance that June was the bottom at approximately two-thirds. A weekly close above $80K would push that confidence closer to 90%. While he still expects a pullback from the current surge, his base case is that the retracement holds above $70K rather than fully retracing into the low $60s. A full retrace remains possible but is no longer the higher-probability outcome in his view.
Terpin framed the current phase as the early stage of a multi-year bull market rather than a short, explosive move. He does not expect a rapid run to previous cycle highs by the end of the year.
BTC
Ethereum’s “White Swan” and the Short Squeeze
Ethereum’s sudden strength stood out. After a prolonged period of relative inactivity, the move generated widespread relief among holders. Terpin linked the broader price action to a large short squeeze—describing it as one of the biggest liquidation events in five years—which amplified the upward momentum once the range finally broke.
Policy Tailwinds
The conversation also touched on the shifting U.S. regulatory tone. Terpin noted that the current administration’s more constructive stance toward crypto, including signals around liquidity and a friendlier environment for building in America, has contributed to improved sentiment. He contrasted this with the prior period of heavier regulatory pressure.
Key Takeaways from Aura8 Ep75
Terpin now assigns ~66% probability that the June low was the Bitcoin cycle bottom.A weekly close above $80K would raise his confidence to ~90%.Base-case retracement support is seen near $70K; a full return to the low $60s is considered less likely.The current rally is viewed as the early phase of a longer bull market, not a short-term spike.Ethereum’s sharp move and a major short squeeze helped fuel the broader risk-on shift.Constructive U.S. policy signals are providing an additional tailwind for sentiment.
Michael Terpin Bitcoin bottom
What It Means Going Forward
Vaibhavv Ali kept the discussion focused on actionable levels and probability shifts rather than narrative excess. The episode captures a clear change in Terpin’s stance from cautious accumulation below the 200-week moving average to higher conviction that the bottom is likely in.
For market participants, the practical implication is a shift in risk management. While a retracement remains expected, the higher-probability path now favors holding above key support rather than preparing for a full retest of the June lows. Confirmation would come with a sustained weekly close above $80K.
Watch the full episode of Aura8 with Vaibhavv Ali (Vali) and Michael Terpin for the complete discussion on price structure, risk management, and the evolving macro backdrop.
#BTC $BTC #bitcoin #MichaelTerpin #VaibhavvAli #AURA8

Bitcoin price performance– Bitcoin has delivered one of its strongest short-term performances of the summer. After trading near the critical $62,000 zone just days earlier, the world’s largest cryptocurrency staged a powerful rebound, pushing past $69,000 and testing higher levels on August 20, 2026.
The move marks a sharp reversal from the cautious tone that dominated the previous week. On Aura8 Episode 73, veteran investor and “godfather of crypto” Michael Terpin had described $62,000 as a potential “trapdoor.” At the time of that conversation, Bitcoin was hovering around $62,582.
Bitcoin A Trapdoor
“Seven days ago on this show, the godfather of crypto gave you a number. He said sixty two thousand is a trapdoor. Below sixty two thousand it could go to sixty, reach sixty and it’s open its doors to even fifty eight. And now we are below that price,” host Vaibhavv Ali noted at the start of the episode.
Terpin’s response at the time was measured. He expected sideways action rather than an immediate collapse, while acknowledging that further downside remained possible.
What the Numbers Show Since Yesterday
Bitcoin closed August 19 near the $68,400–$69,300 range after a strong daily advance. On August 20 it continued higher, trading between roughly $69,500 and above $71,000–$72,000 across major exchanges at various points during the day. Gains from the previous close ranged from approximately 2% to over 4% depending on the exact snapshot, extending a multi-day recovery that lifted prices more than 10% from the mid-$62,000s.
The rebound has been accompanied by elevated volume and short liquidations, classic signs of a squeeze after prolonged consolidation.
Bitcoin price performance
Terpin’s Framework Still Applies
Even as prices recovered, Terpin’s broader framework from the Aura8 conversation remains relevant for understanding the current environment.
He argued that the market was more likely to face negative catalysts than positive ones over the subsequent two months, pointing to potential macro data, Jackson Hole discussions, and the risk of a crypto-specific shock.
I think we’re going to be going sideways for a while until there is some kind of momentum on either the positive or the negative side. And I think right now most of the indications are that there is more likely bad news in the next two months than good news,” Terpin saidAura8 | Ep73
He maintained that the absolute floor in a normal scenario remained in the $30,000s, with a move into the $20,000s only likely in the event of a severe systemic shock such as a major hardware wallet exploit draining billions.
“Never say no matter what… Imagine if that happened to Trezor… I think that would be a fundamental shock worse than FTX and we could get down to maybe even the twenties. I don’t think that’s going to happen.”
On positioning, Terpin confirmed he still held some previously established short positions at the time of the interview, while emphasizing that whales had already begun accumulating.
“If you look at the net whale positions, they’ve already been buying… They tend to not want to wait for the absolute bottom.”Aura8 | Ep73
He also left open the possibility that the real bottom had already occurred in June, or that one more leg lower toward $53,000–$55,000 remained possible before a more sustained recovery beginning around October.
Why the Rally Matters Now
The speed of the move above $69,000 has shifted short-term sentiment. What looked like a potential breakdown through the trapdoor has instead produced a classic relief rally, liquidating late shorts and forcing some sidelined capital back into the market.
Yet Terpin’s longer-term cycle view continues to provide important context. He reiterated that Bitcoin’s four-year pattern remains intact and that the current period should be viewed as a buying opportunity for those with a multi-year horizon, provided they respect the risk of further volatility.
Bitcoin price performance
“This is not the end of Bitcoin. This is a good time to buy even now… You’ll be able to get in somewhere near this price next week, the week after, the week after.”
Looking Ahead
The coming sessions will test whether the breakout above the high $60,000s can hold or whether the market returns to the sideways-to-lower path Terpin outlined. Key events to watch include any residual impact from macro data, further Clarity Act developments in Washington, and the possibility of a crypto-native shock that could still pressure prices.
For now, Bitcoin has answered the immediate trapdoor test with strength. The question is whether this move marks the early stages of a more durable recovery or simply another sharp swing within a still-fragile bear-market structure.
As Terpin reminded listeners on Aura8, the four-year cycle has not been cancelled. The path from here will depend on both the absence of major shocks and the willingness of larger capital to continue accumulating on dips.
#BTC #CryptoRally #MichaelTerpin #VaibhavvAli $BTC #AURA8

In a special Aura8 episode coinciding with the eve of America’s 250th Independence Day, legendary crypto voice Michael Terpin joined Vaibhavv Ali. The conversation covered Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, potential capitulation, regulatory progress, and reflections on American freedom and opportunity.
Table of Contents
Episode OverviewCelebrating 250 Years of American IndependenceBitcoin Market Cycle AnalysisRegulatory Progress & Trump’s ImpactVaibhavv Ali’s TakeFinal Thoughts
Episode Overview
Vaibhav welcomed Michael Terpin back to Aura8 for an insightful discussion. The episode blended patriotic reflections with sharp crypto market analysis, highlighting the intersection of macro events and digital assets.
Celebrating 250 Years of American Independence
Michael shared heartfelt thoughts on what Independence Day means to Americans:
Emphasis on freedom, liberty, and being a “shining beacon” for the world.Reference to the Statue of Liberty and the American dream of opportunity.Acknowledgment of challenges while maintaining optimism about solving them.
Vaibhavv added a fun trivia: No national flag in the world uses purple because the dye was historically extremely expensive.
Bitcoin Market Cycle Analysis
Michael reiterated his belief in the enduring four-year Bitcoin cycle:
Current price action is within a defined range.Potential for one more leg down before the final capitulation.Possible bottom between $39K and $58K.Strong conviction that the cycle structure remains intact despite changes in regulation and technology.
He noted the importance of watching the 200-week moving average and how momentum could shift toward new highs once capitulation is complete.
Regulatory Progress & Trump’s Impact
Both speakers noted positive developments in U.S. crypto regulation under the current administration. Michael highlighted Trump’s pro-crypto stance as a significant improvement compared to previous policies.
Vaibhavv Ali’s Take
“Michael Terpin never misses. From deep cycle analysis to celebrating American values, this episode was packed with wisdom. His consistent four-year cycle thesis combined with realistic expectations on drawdowns gives a grounded view in a volatile market.”
Final Thoughts
This special Independence Day edition of Aura8 blended patriotism with practical market insights. Michael Terpin’s experience and optimism continue to make him one of the most respected voices in crypto.
The conversation reinforces that while markets cycle, the core principles of freedom, innovation, and opportunity remain timeless.
Watch the full episode for more gems from the “Godfather of Crypto.”
#July4Countdown #MichaelTerpin #VaibhavvAli #independenceday2026 #BitcoinSupercycle $BTC $SOL