#USADP98KMiss #USADP98KMiss — June ADP came in weak vs expectations
June 2026 ADP National Employment Report:
Actual: +98,000 private payrolls
Estimate: +118,000 to +120,000
May: +122,000 unrevised
Miss size: ∼20K-22K below consensus f444d43b
What drove the number
Services did all the work: +96,000 jobs, led by education + health services +48,000
Goods basically flat: +2,000 jobs. Construction + manufacturing up, but natural resources/mining -5,000
Leisure/hospitality weak: Only +2,000 despite FIFA World Cup co-hosting
Layoffs declining: Planned layoffs fell sharply = labor market still stable, just slower hiring f4447309
ADP’s take: "Supply and demand story. Taking longer to find work + supply constraints in some industries = slowdown in job creation" f444
Market reaction
Gold: Popped to session highs ∼$4,026/oz. "Soft-dollar, gold-supportive" — cooler jobs = lower yields, Fed may lean dovish
USD: Actually held firm, DXY +0.25% to 101.41
Fed read: Traders saw it as labor losing momentum, not recession yet 47796462
Caveat on ADP: It’s a poor BLS predictor. Avg absolute error since Jan 2023 = 79K, >100K error 1/3 of the time. BLS NFP comes out next day. f444
Bottom line: 98K is a clear miss and slowest pace since 2025, but still positive. Healthcare carrying the load. Market took it as “dovish” not “panic” 4779
You trading this for Fed cut odds, or watching how BLS prints tomorrow vs ADP?