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#USStockRallyPausesBeforeWarshFed : The calm before the storm
Wall Street halts its rally from last week ($SPY +1.7%, $QQQ +3.1%) as the market holds its breath before the first Federal Reserve meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. The decision drops tomorrow, June 17.
🏛️ Who is Kevin Warsh?
Confirmed on May 13 in a historic vote (54-45), Warsh replaces Jerome Powell. His reputation is more 'hawkish' (aggressive against inflation) and his communication style less predictable. The market is uncertain how he will handle inflation (~4%) and a labor market that remains strong.
🎯 Why the pause?
· The Fed will keep rates (3.50%-3.75%), but the key factor is the projections for rates ('dot plot').
· If Warsh hints at a potential rate hike in 2026, the market will shake.
· Investors are already pricing in a 50-65% probability of at least one rate hike this year.
⚡ Impact on crypto
Scenario Consequence
🔴 Hawkish tone (priority: inflation) Strong dollar → capital flees from risk → drop in BTC and altcoins
🟢 Dovish tone (no rush to hike) Weak dollar → liquidity → crypto rally
🧠 Strategy for traders
· Reduce leverage until we know Warsh's tone.
· Wait for the announcement (Wednesday 17) before opening large positions.
· Keep an eye on USD/JPY and the volume on Binance as indicators of capital flow.
🔮 Conclusion
The market is in 'wait and see' mode. Peace in the Middle East is bullish, but Warsh's Fed is the big unknown. If he confirms no further hikes, we will see a relief rally in crypto. If he opens the door to tightening, get ready for a correction.
Do you think Warsh will be more hawkish than expected or surprise us with a moderate tone? 👇
#Fed #Bitcoin #estrategia #tasasdeinteres