๐ Stocks โ August 31, 2026
๐ด US stocks fell today: S&P 500 about โ0.4%, Nasdaq โ0.3%, Dow โ0.6% during the session.
๐ข๏ธ Oil jumped ~3% toward $90/barrel because of renewed USโIran tensions โ higher inflation fears.
๐ฆ Fed rate-hike odds increased to ~60% for September after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments.
๐ป Tech/growth stocks are under more pressure because higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of future-growth valuations.
๐ Despite today's weakness, August was still positive: Dow +2.1%, S&P 500 +3%, Nasdaq +4.1%.
๐ฎ September 1 outlook
My base case: ๐ก choppy/ slightly bearish, not an automatic crash.
Bullish scenario:
If oil cools and rate fears ease โ stocks could bounce.
Bearish scenario:
If oil keeps climbing + Fed hike expectations rise โ Nasdaq/AI stocks could take the biggest hit.
What I'd watch tomorrow:
๐ข๏ธ Oil price
๐ Treasury yields
๐ฆ September Fed-hike probability
๐ป Nasdaq/AI stocks
๐บ๐ธ USโIran developments
The bigger catalyst is actually Friday's US jobs report, which could significantly change Fed expectations.
Bottom line: For Sept 1, I'd expect volatility rather than a clear one-direction move. Don't assume โSeptember = crashโ; today's macro conditions matter more than the calendar.
#stockssignal