Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said at Tuesdayโs press briefing that its stance on maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market has not changed, and that the ministry will continue to maintain close communication with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen. On the trading screen, the USD/JPY pair plunged 0.87% for the day, breaking decisively below the key 153 support level and hitting the lowest level since February this year. In just one week, the yen has surged in value from the 160 area to around 153; the overall price action clearly shows a trend-following breakout.
Solid fundamentals underpin this strong yen rebound. The latest data released Tuesday morning showed that Japanโs second-quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 1.4%, while Julyโs wage growth rate set a fresh record for the highest level in nearly 30 years. Strong economic indicators further reinforced market expectations for additional interest-rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, driving the yen to break through key technical barriers at 155 and even 153 on its own, despite the lack of direct official FX intervention.
From a technical perspective on macro-asset linkages, the sharp fall in USD/JPY reflects the rapid unwinding of yen carry trades. As the exchange rate quickly corrected, short positions and overly overheated leverage were released in a very short period. Although global FX volatility rises in the near term, as the yen quickly returns to a fair range based on fundamentals, market panic about policy uncertainty is gradually being cleared, and the U.S. dollar index is also coming under pressureโopening room for a reshuffling of global liquidity.
For the crypto market, the rapid deleveraging of carry trades is often accompanied by short-term liquidity withdrawal, but it is also a very healthy process of clearing out positions during a bull-market cycle. From a technical structure standpoint,
$BTC has demonstrated extremely strong bottom-support capacity amid macro-range volatility. Once USD/JPY forms a base and consolidates in the 150โ153 range, and the deleveraging pressure is fully digested by the market, the ample liquidity released and stabilizing risk appetite will drive risk assets toward a more explosive rebound, bringing momentum back to the market.
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