The old dog took a glance at the $EWY chart for the past 24 hours, and the -11.5% bearish candlestick hit the 181 level directly, with trading volume skyrocketing to 134 million—usually, it wouldn't even reach a third of that. What caught my attention isn’t just the price itself, but the funding rate still stuck in the positive zone at 0.0047%. It’s not particularly high, but in such a violent drop, it’s surprising it hasn’t turned negative; the bulls are still stubbornly holding on and paying up, indicating a lot of folks haven’t cut losses and are adding to their positions, betting on a rebound. With an open interest of over 74 million, these guys holding their positions must be facing some significant unrealized losses.
This round of the $EWY drop isn’t really tied to earnings reports; the M4_mover perspective is all about politics and macro shifts. Everyone has seen what's going on in South Korea; when the martial law news broke, I was glued to the charts. The perpetual contracts reacted faster than spot, with the first 20 minutes of funding still above 0.02%, then the open interest gradually collapsed to the current level. This kind of event-driven drop has a characteristic: the first wave is panic selling, and the second wave is the liquidation of leveraged longs causing a chain reaction. The old dog has seen similar setups before; last September's UK mini-budget saw a similar vibe with pound-related tradfi contracts—the rapid drop followed by a negative funding rate took two weeks to recover. But the $EWY hasn’t turned negative yet, indicating the market is still stubborn, believing the political shock will pass, with funds ready to buy on dips. If this consensus is wrong, the next wave of liquidations could be even uglier.
The old dog won’t be catching falling knives at this level. The 181 price was a strong support zone in Q4 last year, but the environment then was different; the market was trading on rate cut expectations. Now, the $EWY is facing an unexpected political situation, with foreign capital retreating and the won depreciating, both factors pressing down valuations. I calculated that if the funding rate hasn’t turned negative in the next 48 hours, it indicates that the bulls are still overcrowded. Every 3-5 point bounce above will likely trigger some stop-loss orders. To enter the market, I’d need to wait until the open interest drops another tier, say below 50 million, which would indicate that those who needed to exit have done so, leaving behind only those truly willing to hold on.
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#BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM
#EWY #EWYUSDT $EWY