The US-Iran deal seems to be on the horizon, but the Strait of Hormuz is still a hurdle.
Lately, the market has started trading on the expectation of a 'US-Iran deal nearing completion', but a closer look reveals that both sides are still quite far from a real agreement.
The US is pretty straightforward: once the deal is signed, the Strait of Hormuz should immediately open up to all vessels, and ideally, no extra tolls should be charged.
On the Iranian side, they have their own agenda. The strait can reopen, but Iran wants to maintain the right to charge for related shipping services, while also pushing for the lifting of the maritime blockade, releasing frozen assets, and gradually easing sanctions.
In plain terms, both parties are not completely against negotiating; they are just arguing over who controls the pace and retains more leverage.
The Strait of Hormuz is not just any shipping lane; it’s crucial for global energy transport. As long as the agreement remains unfinalized, the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil is unlikely to vanish completely; with oil prices staying high, this will continue to impact inflation expectations and interest rate cuts, ultimately putting pressure on both the US stock market and the crypto space.
For BTC, this kind of news typically brings dual impacts.
If the deal progresses, oil prices and inflation pressures may ease, and risk asset sentiment could improve; but if both sides deny each other again or sign a delay, the market will revert to risk-off mode, with short-term volatility likely to be amplified.
Personally, I think the most common mistake right now is to see 'nearing agreement' and take it as a done deal.
What really matters to watch isn’t the verbal statements, but three outcomes: when normal passage through the strait resumes, whether vessels will still have to pay fees, and whether the US will simultaneously lift the blockade and sanctions.
As long as these three issues aren’t clearly defined, the US-Iran deal remains just a framework, not the final outcome.
The market has never feared bad news as much as it fears good news being continually delayed.
#USIranHormusDealDisputed $SPCXB