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The U.S. jobs market continues to exhibit strength with the government reporting the addition of 303,000 jobs last month. That's the strongest headline number since May 2023 and easily topped economist forecasts for 200,000 and February's 270,000 additions (revised from a previously reported 275,000).
The unemployment rate in March dipped to 3.8% against expectations for 3.9% and February's 3.9%.
The price of bitcoin {{BTC}} fell about 0.5% in the minutes following Friday morning's report to $66,000. In traditional markets, U.S. stock index futures gave up a chunk of earlier gains, but are still modestly higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6.5 basis points to 4.38% and the dollar index added 0.5%.
Coming into 2024, markets had priced in as many as five or six U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts to begin as soon as March. The economic data, however, hasn't cooperated. Inflation has actually risen somewhat in the first quarter of the year and job growth has remained robust.
March has obviously come and gone with no rate cut and traders ahead of today's numbers had moved expectations of the first rate cut to June or July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A total of just three rate cuts are expected for the full year and even that could be too much.
Speaking yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the possibility of no rate cuts at all in 2024. His remarks prompted a sharp reversal in stocks, with the major averages closing down more than 1%. Just following today's numbers, swaps trading indicated expectations for the first rate cut had moved out to September.
Checking other report details, the labor force participation rate rose to 62.7% from 62.5%, suggesting sizable numbers of people returning to the workforce. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in March, in line with expectations and up from 0.2% in February. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings rose an in line 4.1%, down from 4.3% in February.

Based on this aggressive drop (accompanied by strong bearish momentum) on the daily timeframe (1D), a clear price imbalance was left behind, while liquidity was swept from certain areas.
​Here is the technical analysis for liquidity pools and expected imbalance areas for the coming period according to the SMC/ICT framework:
​1. Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
​Due to the rapid and sudden decline at the time of the news release, the giant red candle left behind a Daily FVG, where price delivery was inefficient between buyers and sellers.
​Expected FVG Range: This range typically forms between the low of the candle prior to the news candle and the high of the candle following it.
​Expected Price Behavior: This range acts as a "magnet" for the price in the future. Price will likely seek a bullish corrective retracement to retest this gap and rebalance liquidity (at least reaching the 50% equilibrium level of the gap, known as the Consequent Encroachment) before resuming any further downside.
​2. Liquidity Pools
​The violent bearish expansion has already hunted and swept the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resting below the recent swing lows.
​Downside Targets (Sell-Side Liquidity - SSL):
​If bearish pressure continues without retracement, the next liquidity targets will be the older daily lows (the previous major swing lows on the daily or weekly timeframes). Breaking below these lows will trigger buyers' stop-losses, converting them into sell-side liquidity that fuels the drop.
​Upside Targets (Buy-Side Liquidity - BSL):
​This is now heavily concentrated above the high of the news candle itself. Many traders have placed their buy-stop orders (stop-losses for short positions) above the high of the June 5th candle, making it a prime target for buy-side liquidity over the medium term if a strong reversal occurs.
​3. Order Blocks (OB)
​This last bearish candle has now converted into a Bearish Order Block on lower timeframes (such as the 4H or 1H).
​Any future upward move to mitigate the open of this candle (the starting point of the drop) will likely face strong rejection and renewed selling pressure from institutions and market makers looking to distribute their remaining contracts.
​Price Action (PA) Watchlist:
Since the market is closed today (Saturday), it will be useful upon market opening to monitor lower timeframes (like the 15M or 1H) for any Change of Character (CHoCH) to the upside. This would serve as an early signal for the start of a corrective retracement toward the daily FVG, rather than a direct continuation through the lower swing lows.
#GOLD #GOLD_UPDATE $XAU #Nonfarm