In the past 24 hours,
$GDX dropped 4.417%, with the price hanging at 95.87. The funding rate is positive, at 0.00078647โlongs are paying shorts. Just looking at these two numbers, the price is falling, but long sentiment hasnโt cooled down. Thatโs kind of interesting.
My view is that Trumpโs tariff policy is becoming the main short-term factor weighing on
$GDX . The market may be misreading the โinflation is goodโ angle, while underestimating the economic damage.
Tariffs push up inflation. Theoretically, that should benefit gold. But the pricing path the market is currently following is that tariffs directly hit the economy. According to the Tax Foundation, tariff estimates would reduce long-term GDP by 0.4%, the capital stock by 0.3%, and labor hours by 345,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Those arenโt small numbers. When growth expectations get cut, the first thing investors think about for safe-haven assets is liquidity. Gold and gold stocks are not the first choiceโUS Treasuries and cash are. The Wikipedia entry also notes that once tariffs are announced, US stocksโespecially retail and automobilesโdrop immediately. As
$GDX is a gold-mining ETF, the companies it holds are part of the real economy; energy and equipment costs can rise due to tariffs and trade frictions, squeezing profits.
The market is ignoring the lag in cost pass-through. Right now, the gold price may not have fully reflected the long-term erosion of minersโ profit margins caused by tariffs. On the technical side, stockinvest.usโs analysis on August 25 issued a sell signal from the pivot high; at that time, the stock had already fallen 2.94%. That matches the price action.
Strong counterargument: If inflation data later spikes, the market might start trading the stagflation logic again, and money could once more flow into gold for hedging, lifting
$GDX . Or if Trump, like he did when he extended tariff timelines, suddenly shows openness to negotiations, sentiment could reverse.
Second-order effects: If the price keeps drifting lower, with the current positive funding rate, people holding long positions wonโt just have to endure the price dropโtheyโll also have to pay funding fees. That could force some leveraged longs to cut losses and exit, increasing sell pressure. Shorts can collect funding as long as longs get squeezed out.
Invalidation condition: If the
$GDX price breaks above the range high from August 31 with volume, my short-term bearish logic would be invalidated. That would suggest the tariff hedging narrative is overpowering concerns about the economy.
Action: Short
$GDX , 5x leverage. Set stop-loss at 100.5 and take-profit around 89 (the prior low area). Position size: 20%.
Trading tag:
#TradFi #้พไธ็พ่ก #GDX
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?