Crypto With Ali

Investing.com - Jefferies a élaboré un nouveau cadre quantitatif pour fixer le prix de l’or, visant 4 650 $ l’once d’ici la fin de l’année, en abandonnant les moteurs traditionnels comme les taux d’intérêt réels et le dollar américain au profit du comportement des réserves des banques centrales et des déficits budgétaires.
https://investing.com/pro/landing-pagelanding-page
La prévision implique un potentiel de hausse d’environ 5 % par rapport aux prix au comptant. Pour les investisseurs en actions, l’expression boursière la plus directe d’un rallye prolongé de l’or reste les grands producteurs d’or et les sociétés de redevances — des noms tels que Newmont et Agnico Eagle, dont les revenus et les flux de trésorerie disponibles augmentent mécaniquement lorsque le prix réalisé de l’or dépasse leurs coûts totaux de maintien.

The PONS Bag from Unipcs is now worth nearly $10 million. He is currently occupying an insane $PONS position.
He initially invested only $67.7K in 10.9M PONS, but that bag now has a value of more than $9.99M. That is more than $9 million in unrealized profit from the initial entry, or roughly a return of 149 times.
The kind of on-chain trade that you don't often see is a bet of $67K turning into almost $10M. Additionally, he is still holding the entire bag, so the most interesting aspect right now is what happens if #pons continues to run.
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#ZECHitsANewAllTimeHigh #BitcoinETFsBiggestDailyInflowSinceJanuary #RussiaUkraine72-hourCeasefire #USAugustJobGrowthNearlyTriplesForecast #USAugustAvgHourlyEarningsRise3.1%

L’or recule davantage mardi après être revenu d’un plus-haut de plus de trois mois la semaine dernière.
Des attentes plus restrictives envers la Fed et la hausse des rendements des bons du Trésor maintiennent le métal précieux sous pression.
XAU/USD teste une zone de support clé alors que la dynamique bascule en faveur des vendeurs.
L’or (XAU/USD) prolonge son repli depuis le plus-haut de plus de trois mois touché la semaine dernière et tombe mardi à un nouveau plus-bas de deux semaines. La hausse des attentes concernant des augmentations des taux d’intérêt de la Réserve fédérale (Fed) et les nouvelles tensions au Moyen-Orient restent les principaux moteurs de la dernière baisse. Cependant, des données économiques américaines plus faibles que prévu contribuent à limiter la baisse.

The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in July, missing the market forecast of 55.2. The ISM Prices Paid Index held steady at 71.1, below expectations of 72.0, while JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.271 million in July from 7.182 million but fell short of the 7.3 million forecast.
Despite the data misses, expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as this month keep the US Dollar and Treasury yields supported. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 99.64, up 0.23% on the day. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hovers around 4.76% after touching 4.80%, its highest level since January 2025.
A firmer US Dollar makes Dollar-denominated Gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Chair Kevin Warsh’s tough rhetoric on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium revived rate hike bets, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 65% probability of a hike at the September 15-16 meeting, up from roughly 40% a week ago.
Fed Governor Michael Barr added to the hawkish tone on Tuesday, saying that “the persistence of inflation above target creates risks.” Barr said he favours steady rates if confident inflation is moderating but warned that “if inflation doesn’t moderate soon, it will be time for an interest rate hike.”
At the same time, rising Oil prices are adding to inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that major central banks may need to keep monetary policy tight. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil advances for a second consecutive day following the latest flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz.
Typically, inflation and geopolitical concerns support Gold. However, the market is currently reacting through the interest rate channel, and the metal tends to perform poorly when interest rates and Treasury yields rise.
Sellers are therefore likely to retain the upper hand in the near term, although upcoming US economic data and developments in the Middle East could trigger fresh volatility. Attention now shift to the ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

Iran and Oman agreed terms on administering the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent below $90 for the first time since the conflict escalated — removing the energy-driven inflation shock from the table precisely as Warsh prepares to speak. Bitcoin held just under $80,000 after an overnight run to $81,280, with eight consecutive days of ETF inflows totaling $2.8B — August already the strongest inflow month of 2026. The $6.4B options expiry cleared with max pain at $68,000, roughly $12,000 below where Bitcoin settled. California passed AB 2409 barring officials from issuing meme coins. Dollar edged higher as the yen weakened.
$6.4 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire With Price Near $80,000 and Max Pain at $68,000
About 81,700 Bitcoin options worth $6.4B settled on Deribit at 08:00 UTC Friday. Max pain sat at $68,000-$70,000 — roughly $12,000 below where Bitcoin actually traded — a gap that measures how unanticipated the rally was. Options built during the six-week range between $61,500 and $66,900 at BVIV lows of 35.59% priced a narrow outcome distribution; calls at $75,000 and $80,000 that were far out-of-the-money when written finished near or in the money. BVIV climbed to 47% through the rally. Post-expiry, Deribit's Pequignot pointed to call spreads as the preferred structure for September upside exposure, with puts remaining expensive relative to calls. The supply wall at $80,000-$82,000 — where nearly 8% of Bitcoin's circulating supply sits — is the next test.
Solana Jumps 20% on the Week as Bitcoin Tests $80,000 Ahead of Jackson Hole
Bitcoin ran to $81,280 overnight before pulling back just below $80,000 ahead of Warsh's keynote. Solana surged 4% to $101 — 20% on the week. Ether +1% to $2,492, XRP +2% to $1.43, BNB +1% to $714. The Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement sent Brent below $90 — down 5%+ on the week — removing the primary inflation shock heading into the Fed's September 16 decision. Futures still price 35% odds of a September hike and fully price a move by December. Bitcoin has rallied through rising hike expectations all month — a hawkish Warsh confirms what's already priced, but removes the ambiguity that has let the rally run. LMAX's Joel Kruger: "setbacks should now be limited, with the May high just below $83,000."
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Closes Marginally Higher as Precious Metals Rally and AI Names Fall
The Hang Seng closed up 0.07% as China Silver Group and Summit Resources both gained 7%+, while AI names Zhipu and MINIMAX-W fell 6% and 4% respectively — the same precious-metals-up, AI-down divergence visible across global markets for weeks. Chinese AI names not participating in the Nvidia-driven regional lift points to something separate from the demand story: the DUV lithography breakthrough and Nvidia pausing its AI cloud financing initiative are the specific overhangs. Gold slipped to $4,587 even as Hong Kong metals equities rallied — a common divergence between commodity and miners when equity flows lag the underlying.
California AB 2409 Passes Legislature, Would Bar Officials From Issuing Meme Coins
AB 2409 has passed both chambers and awaits the governor's signature. The bill would prohibit California public officials from issuing meme coins and — from January 1, 2027 — bar digital asset service providers from offering California residents trading in meme coins issued by any federal, state or local official anywhere. The compliance obligation falls on exchanges, which would need to screen listings by issuer's public official status. The bill directly parallels the ethics provision that has stalled the federal CLARITY Act — California is legislating at the state level the question Congress cannot resolve. The CLARITY Act missed its August voting window and still needs 10 Senate Democrats to clear 60 votes. State laws and SEC rulemaking are filling the gap.
Dollar Index Rises To 99.213 As Yen Weakens
The DXY edged up to 99.213 from 99.159 as the yen weakened to 159.67 per dollar. The dollar holding just above 99 — below its 200-day average of 99.1 — keeps the weaker-dollar backdrop that has supported both Bitcoin and gold broadly intact. A sustained break above 99.5 would begin to tighten that support. The yen at 159.67 keeps the carry trade unwind risk in the background — the same mechanism that crashed Bitcoin from $65,000 to $50,000 in a week in July 2024 becomes more live as the yen weakens further. Warsh's Jackson Hole tone will be the primary determinant of where the dollar goes from here.
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#SOLJumps20%OnTheWeek #CaliforniaBillWouldBarOfficialMemeCoins #$6.4BBitcoinOptionsExpire #TRONMainnetActivatesTVMPragueOsaka #QatarExtendsLNGForceMajeureByOneMonth

HYPE a bondi de plus de 6 % en quelques heures après que le président Donald Trump a déclaré que les régulateurs s’emploient à faire entrer Hyperliquid aux États-Unis d’une manière entièrement légale et conforme. D’après BeInCrypto, Trump a crédité le président de la Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Michael Selig, d’avoir mené l’effort lors d’une réunion à la Maison-Blanche réunissant des dirigeants de la crypto et de la technologie, mercredi 19 août.
Trump a affirmé que Selig travaille à empêcher Hyperliquid d’entrer aux États-Unis, et Selig a promis de fournir des informations supplémentaires jeudi. Au moment de la publication, HYPE se négociait près de 68,19 $ avec une capitalisation boursière d’environ 15,1 milliards de dollars.

Le secrétaire au Trésor américain, Scott Bessent, a déclaré que les rachats accrus de titres du Trésor annoncés cette semaine pourraient dépasser 4 milliards de dollars par émission, selon Bloomberg. S’exprimant jeudi sur CNBC, M. Bessent a indiqué : « nous disposons d’une grande boîte à outils, donc on verra », ajoutant qu’une partie du mouvement visait à signaler et à montrer qu’il existe une conviction selon laquelle les rendements ne reflètent pas les fondamentaux sous-jacents.
Les commentaires ont suivi la déclaration du Département du Trésor mercredi, selon laquelle il augmenterait la taille des rachats pour les titres à plus longue échéance « d’au moins le double ». L’impact sur le marché n’a été que de courte durée : d’ici jeudi, les obligations américaines à 30 ans avaient effacé les gains liés à l’annonce surprenante. Les rendements des titres à 10 ans et à 30 ans sont restés plus élevés après ses remarques.