Affordability of necessities in the US continues to deteriorate:
Since January 2021, food away from home prices have surged +28%, to an all-time high.
Shelter prices have risen +27% over the same period, also setting a record.
Food at home and services other than rent have increased +25% and +24%, respectively.
By comparison, average wages have advanced just +20% over this time.
Furthermore, shelter costs have soared nearly +50% since 2015, the steepest 10-year increase since the mid-1990s.
Wage growth has failed to keep up with surging costs of basic necessities.
Asset owners are the only winners.
$BTC
Bitcoin: the asset that obeys tweets more than economic laws
$BTC
What’s happening this year is almost absurd.
– The stock market rises → Bitcoin falls
– The stock market drops → Bitcoin falls
– Gold explodes → Bitcoin falls
– Gold corrects → Bitcoin falls
At some point, we have to call things what they are.
👉 Bitcoin is correlated to nothing stable.
Not to the real economy.
Not to traditional markets.
Not to gold.
Not to the dollar.
No lasting logic. No readable consistency.
The only real “correlation” we see today? 👉 Noise.
A tweet.
A rumor.
A statement from an executive.
An influencer’s opinion.
And the price pumps or dumps within minutes, with no real link to economic fundamentals.
If by the end of the year Bitcoin hasn’t recovered while traditional markets are doing well, many people will finally open their eyes.
It doesn’t respond to cycles.
It doesn’t respond to interest rates.
It doesn’t respond to macro.
👉 It responds to collective emotion.
Simple conclusion:
Bitcoin is not a classic financial asset.
It’s a barometer of mass psychology and hype. Nothing more.
That’s what many people are saying today.
That’s the narrative spreading everywhere.
But I don’t fully agree with that view.
I’m mainly reporting what the market is showing in the short term: fear, euphoria, and chain reactions.
Between Bitcoin’s fundamental reality and the market’s emotional reaction, there’s a gap.
And it’s precisely that gap that creates so much confusion… and so many opportunities.
#bitcoin #btc
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
The narrative is seductive. The data tells a different story.
Q3 2025: BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan sold $5.38 billion in MSTR shares.
Same quarter: BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed $4.2 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows. JPMorgan launched IBIT structured notes with 1.5x leverage. Goldman began Bitcoin collateral lending.
This is not a synchronized attack.
This is a synchronized rotation.
From the proxy to the asset. From the wrapper to the underlying. From Saylor’s balance sheet to their own fee structures.
MSCI’s 50% threshold existed before Strategy crossed it. The rules did not change. Strategy’s asset composition did. mNAV at 0.863 is arithmetic, not conspiracy.
The harder truth:
Wall Street is not trying to kill Bitcoin. Wall Street is trying to own Bitcoin’s infrastructure while retail fights over narratives.
Every dollar that exits MSTR flows toward products where BlackRock, Fidelity, and JPMorgan collect basis points in perpetuity.
The “diamond hands” transfer is real. But the diamonds are not flowing from institutions to believers.
They are flowing from believers to institutions, who now custody $60.8 billion in spot ETFs, who now provide prime brokerage, who now structure the derivatives.
The war is not two-front.
The war is over.
Wall Street won by building the rails everyone must use.
MSTR’s mNAV tells you who absorbed the cost of that victory.
The asset survives. The proxy pays the toll.
$BTC
Current market concentration is unprecedented:
The largest 100 companies now reflect ~68% of total US market capitalization, the highest since the 1970s.
This percentage has risen +23 points over the last 20 years.
At the same time, the S&P 500 excluding the top 100 has fallen -16 percentage points, to ~25%, the lowest in at least 52 years.
By comparison, 400 mid-cap stocks now make up ~5% of total market cap, down -4 points over the last 14 years.
All while the weight of 600 small-cap stocks has declined to ~2%, near the lowest since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.
Large cap tech has never been bigger.
$BTC
MICHAEL BURRY JUST WALKED AWAY FROM WALL STREET
Not because he was wrong.
Because being right no longer matters.
His final investor letter contained one sentence that should terrify every fund manager, central banker, and policymaker on Earth:
“My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets.”
This is not a crash prediction.
This is a death certificate.
THE NUMBERS NOBODY WILL TELL YOU
Passive index funds now control 52% of all U.S. fund assets. Fifteen point four trillion dollars. BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street collectively manage twenty five trillion. They own dominant stakes in virtually every public company in America.
They analyze nothing.
Every dollar flowing into an S&P 500 ETF automatically allocates thirty five cents to seven stocks. Not because someone studied the balance sheets. Because that is their index weight. The algorithm cannot read an earnings report. The algorithm cannot process overvaluation. The algorithm simply replicates.
THE DEATH SPIRAL
Passive buying increases prices. Higher prices increase index weights. Higher weights attract more passive buying. The feedback loop operates completely independent of whether any business is worth what the market claims.
The marginal buyer of American equities is no longer an analyst with conviction.
It is a target date fund receiving its biweekly paycheck allocation.
This buyer has no opinion.
This buyer will never sell.
THE CONSEQUENCE
Price discovery, the mechanism that has allocated capital for two centuries, has been structurally disabled.
The most successful short seller in modern history looked at these numbers and concluded that fundamental analysis no longer converts to returns.
He did not predict collapse.
He diagnosed something worse.
The market still exists.
The market no longer thinks.
$BTC
$BTC
Local liquidations are showing up around 94.6–94.7K.
If we continue holding into the 4th pivot, the rejection is more likely to happen tomorrow rather than today, since the market is still consolidating.
From here, we either dump into the 4th pivot or pump into it. Based on the current PA, it’s difficult to determine which scenario is more likely. So its safer to wait, observe & then react.
A historic wave of tech CapEx is transforming the entire market:
The CapEx-to-depreciation ratio of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector has surged to ~1.94, the highest in at least 20 years.
This metric measures how much companies invest in new assets relative to the rate at which their existing assets are depreciating.
The ratio has surged +76% since 2021, the fastest pace since the post-2008 recovery.
It now stands +21% above the 2018 peak of ~1.60.
By comparison, this metric for the S&P Midcap 400 index has fallen -23% over the last 2 years, to ~1.38, near the lowest in 15 years.
Big tech AI investment is exploding.
$BTC
BREAKING: The First AI Era Just Ended
On December 2, 2025, Sam Altman declared “Code Red” at OpenAI.
This is not a competitive setback. This is a phase transition.
The numbers tell a story no one wants to hear:
OpenAI has committed $1.4 trillion in infrastructure spending. Current revenue: $20 billion. Profitability target: 2030. The gap is mathematically unprecedented.
Google’s Gemini 3 hit 1501 Elo on LMArena. First model in history to breach 1500. Two weeks later, Altman issued the highest emergency designation his company has ever used.
But benchmarks obscure the deeper shift.
Gemini is growing 3x faster than ChatGPT. Users now spend more time per session with Gemini despite ChatGPT having higher user counts. The engagement advantage has inverted.
Here is what Wall Street has not priced in:
OpenAI does not own a single data center. Oracle provides compute. Crusoe builds campuses. JPMorgan finances facilities. Nvidia supplies chips. OpenAI orchestrates. It does not own.
Google designs its own TPUs, operates its own data centers, funds AI from $300 billion in annual revenue, and embeds Gemini into 3 billion Chrome browsers and 3 billion Android devices.
The structural asymmetry is existential.
Meanwhile, Anthropic grew from $1 billion to $5 billion revenue in eight months. Enterprise customers pay $15 per million tokens for Claude while GPT costs $1.25. The reliability premium is real.
The talent exodus accelerates. Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines raised $2 billion, now approaching $50 billion valuation. Seven of her first 29 hires came directly from OpenAI.
The capability era rewarded the best model. The reliability era rewards infrastructure ownership, distribution embeddedness, and enterprise trust.
OpenAI built a $500 billion valuation on capability leadership.
That leadership is no longer defensible.
The Code Red is not a crisis response.
It is an admission that the rules have permanently changed.
$BTC
🌸 *Bienvenue dans Binance Junior : la crypto version doudou & bonbons ! 🍭🚀
Imagine une appli aussi jolie qu’une boîte de macarons… mais dedans, c’est du $BTC , de l' $ETH et plein de petites pièces qui brillent comme des Smarties !
Binance Junior, c’est la crypto familiale, pensée pour tous :
💡 Pour les parents
- Contrôle total : tu valides chaque achat comme quand tu dis « OK, mais UN seul Kinder ».
- Plafond quotidien : « pas plus que le prix d’un menu enfant ».
- Historique clair : « Chérie, pourquoi y a 12 € en $WOOF aujourd’hui ? »
🦄 Pour les kids & ados
- Une appli aux couleurs pastel, avec des animaux kawaii et une tirelire licorne.
- Des quêtes trop chou : « Nourris ton hamster Bitcoin avec 5 € de DCA cette semaine → gagne un badge Bébé HODLer ».
- Premier wallet à leur prénom (fini le « maman prête-moi ta carte »).
- Récompenses en satoshis quand ils font leurs devoirs ou rangent leur chambre 😂
✨ Et le meilleur ?
Le jour où Bitcoin fait ×10, toute la famille crie : « ON VA CHEZ DISNEYYYYY ! » en même temps 🏰
Binance Junior : parce que la révolution crypto commence… par une tirelire. Et que même les licornes ont droit à leur moon. 🌕💖
Alors, qui va créer le premier « portefeuille famille » ce soir ? Tag ton mini-HODLer préféré en commentaire ✨
Bienveillament ✨️,
#PATRICIABM 🥰💖🌹
#BinanceJunior #PetitsHodlersDevenusGrands
Crypto ETFs are making a comeback:
Crypto funds recorded +$1.1 billion in inflows last week, the largest in 7 weeks.
This marks a reversal from 4 consecutive weekly withdrawals totaling -$4.7 billion.
The US led with +$994 million in inflows, followed by Canada with +$98 million and Switzerland with +$24 million, while Germany saw -$57 million in outflows.
Bitcoin led the inflows, at +$461 million, followed by Ethereum, at +$308 million.
At the same time, investors pulled out -$1.9 billion from short-bitcoin ETPs.
Upside momentum in crypto is returning.
$BTC
THE PRIMAKOV VINDICATION
Everyone is asking: “Is NATO dying?”
Wrong question.
NATO is not dying. It is revealing what it always was: a dependency, not an alliance.
December 2025 fulfilled a Russian strategic doctrine written in 1996. Yevgeny Primakov’s vision: bypass European capitals entirely, negotiate continental security directly between Washington and Moscow.
Twenty nine years later, it happened.
But here is what no analyst is telling you.
Europe cannot exit this dependency even if it wanted to.
The numbers are devastating.
Europe provides near zero percent of its own strategic intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capability. Near zero percent of its own air defense suppression systems. Near zero percent of its strategic airlift capacity to move forces at scale.
Without American satellites, European armies are blind.
Without American tankers, European jets are grounded.
Without American logistics, European divisions cannot move.
This is not a policy choice. It is a structural trap built bar by bar over seventy six years.
The 5% GDP defense target is mathematically impossible for most European economies without triggering fiscal collapse. Only Poland exceeds even 3.5%. The target exists to fail. Justification for American withdrawal is being written in advance.
Meanwhile, Belgium just blocked the 140 billion euro frozen asset mechanism. Europe cannot even fund its own alternative path.
Iraq was out of area. Libya was out of area. Afghanistan was out of area.
Ukraine is not.
For the first time since 1949, European borders are being negotiated in a room where Europeans are not seated.
The question is not “client or sovereign.”
The question is: Can you escape a cage you built yourself when you no longer possess the keys?
The mask did not come off.
The door just locked.
$BTC
💫🌹 POÈME DU JOUR
$BTC , c’est du chocolat 100 % cacao : amer au début mais ça te fait fondre la tête ensuite.
Les altcoins ? Des œufs Kinder : parfois y’a un jouet, parfois juste du vide et des pleurs.
HODL = garder sa tablette même quand maman dit « tu vas être malade ».
DCA = acheter un carré par jour « pour le petit-déjeuner » (on sait tous que c’est pour la revente à 1 million).
Le bear market ? Quand ton chocolat fond dans la poche… Mais le bull run arrive, et là : on mange direct dans la plaque en criant « À LA LUNE ! » 🏆🍫🚀
Seed phrase dans le frigo, rêves dans le four. Un jour, on sera tous des barons du cacao. Ou en diabète… mais riches 😭🤣
Alors, on partage une tablette ou on garde tout pour la lune ? 🌕🍫"
Excellente journée 🥰
Bienveillament ✨️,
#PATRICIABM 🌹💖💫
BREAKING:
🇬🇧 UK NOW OFFICIALLY RECOGNIZES CRYPTO AS PROPERTY
A new UK law has reclassified cryptocurrencies as legal property, putting them in the same legal category as stocks, real estate, and other tangible assets.
That gives holders clear ownership rights: ability to own, inherit, recover, and treat crypto like any other regulated asset.
This removes major legal uncertainty.
Crypto becomes easier to use in estate planning, lending, collateral, and regulated markets. It also increases institutional comfort, properties backed by crypto may soon become mainstream.
$BTC
$SAGA Analysis
It looks like you bought Saga Coin at 0.866 USDT, which is significantly above the current price of 0.074 USDT. This is a major drawdown, so the priority should now be risk management rather than chasing short-term gains.
From a technical standpoint, the coin is in a range between 0.0654 and 0.0807, with the balance at 0.0745. The trend shows mixed signals: some indicators like RSI, MFI, and ADX are bullish, but others, including MACD, PSAR, and DMI, are bearish. This points to uncertainty and consolidation, rather than a clear trend.
Key zones to monitor: demand at 0.0693–0.0704, intermediate support 0.0730–0.0734, and resistance at 0.0742 / 0.0764 / 0.0772. Any rebound from the demand zone with a clear bullish reversal (pin bar, engulfing candle, or higher low) could be used to recover partial positions or scale in cautiously.
Given your entry at 0.866, patience is crucial, avoid converting too quickly to another coin unless there’s a strong, confirmed reversal. Protect your capital with stops below 0.0680 and consider taking profits gradually if the price reaches resistance levels.
THE MONETARY SINGULARITY HAS ARRIVED
December 1, 2025 changed everything. The Federal Reserve did not choose to end Quantitative Tightening. It was forced to.
The numbers tell the story no one is reporting.
Fed balance sheet frozen at $6.58 trillion. Bank reserves at $2.88 trillion. The Reverse Repo Facility collapsed from $2.5 trillion to $6 billion. On December 2, the Fed injected $13.5 billion in emergency repo operations as overnight rates breached their corridor.
This is not a policy decision. This is a structural floor. The Fed discovered it cannot shrink further without breaking money markets.
Simultaneously, Japan is experiencing its most severe bond repricing in history. The 30 year yield hit 3.43 percent. The 40 year hit 3.76 percent. Both are all time records. The Bank of Japan now holds unrealized losses of 32.8 trillion yen. For the first time ever, its interest payments exceed its income.
The three decade Japanese bond bull market is over.
Global M2 money supply has reached $123 trillion. US M2 is growing at 4.6 percent annually. Over $8 trillion sits in money market funds awaiting redeployment.
Bitcoin registered this phase transition before any other instrument. It crashed to $83,824 on December 1 as Japan stress manifested. It recovered to $93,000 by December 3 as Fed liquidity dominance became clear.
The correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 stands at 0.94 with a 60 to 107 day lag.
What this means: February through April 2026 is the transmission window. The mathematical projection based on verified elasticity of 2.65 suggests $150,000 to $170,000 Bitcoin if current liquidity expansion continues.
The central banks have revealed their constraints. The balance sheets are permanent. The accommodation cannot be unwound.
This is not a cycle. This is a regime change.
$BTC