cryptowatchmay2024

The Senate agreed unanimously to revise its rules to ban members and their staffs from wagers on prediction markets platforms.
Acting on a simple, 14-line resolution pushed by Ohio Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, the Senate agreed unanimously to put a restriction between members and the increasingly popular, controversial betting platforms that have drawn scrutiny over insider-trading activity and fights over who has regulatory jurisdiction.
United States Senators have no business engaging in speculative activities like prediction markets while collecting a taxpayer-funded paycheck, period,” said Senator Moreno in a Thursday statement. “Serving in Congress should never be about finding new ways to profit; it should be about delivering results for the American people.”
Effective immediately, the change to Senate rules now holds that senators can't enter "an agreement, contract, or transaction that provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of a specific event."
Political betting has surged in popularity, and some candidates for office have already been penalized for wagering on their own races.
One of the leading platforms, Polymarket, posted on social media site X that the company is in "full support" of the Senate's action. Polymarket, which isn't supposed to operate in the U.S. after a 2022 agreement with the CFTC, noted that its user rules "already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry."
Betting on Polymarket currently gives Democrats even odds that they'll reclaim the Senate majority in the November elections. Democrats have generally been more critical and suspicious of the fast-growing industry.
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After research showed a small minority moves prices, new data suggests an even smaller group captures roughly half of all gains
Across Polymarket’s politics markets between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets captured 50% of gains, the report finds, while 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly the same share. In dollar terms, roughly $8 million of about $16 million in profits accrued to each of those tiny cohorts.
The data sharpens a picture already forming in academic work: a London Business School and Yale paper, previously analyzed by CoinDesk, found that about 3% of Polymarket traders drive most price discovery.
A small minority moves the prices. A smaller minority keeps the money.
The contrast underscores a key point: concentration does not necessarily imply wrongdoing. Some traders are simply more sophisticated, better capitalized, or faster to act on information. But the report argues that the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants.
The participants capturing a disproportionate share of profits are operating in a different league entirely,” the report said, pointing to capital depth, infrastructure, and execution strategies that are out of reach for most users.
Solidus' study also flags signs of wash trading, with roughly 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Because outcome tokens in a binary prediction market sum to roughly $1.00, a trader could buy YES on both Trump and Harris inside the same time window, register volume on each leg, and finish economically delta-neutral.
Solidus says this trade has no equivalent in traditional finance.
Some of that volume may be incentive farming rather than pure manipulation. It's widely speculated that Polymarket's upcoming $POLY airdrop will factor in trading volume as a metric to allocate tokens.
Solidus is not a neutral observer. The firm sells HALO, the surveillance platform whose output the report relies on, and recently signed a deal to deploy that platform across more than 4,000 markets on Kalshi, Polymarket's largest U.S.-regulated competitor.
The data is onchain and verifiable. The framing — that prediction markets need surveillance infrastructure, preferably Solidus's — is part of the pitch.
That doesn't change the underlying numbers. It does suggest reading them with a hand on the wallet.
If earlier research showed that a small minority moves these markets, the latest data suggests an even starker conclusion: an even smaller group consistently wins them.
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$BNB BTC Structure Still Bullish Above Key Support Zone:-
$BTC is currently holding above the 60,500 support zone, which keeps the bullish structure intact on the daily timeframe.

As long as price stays above this level, continuation toward higher resistance zones remains likely.

📍 Entry Zone: 60,500 – 61,500
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 64,000
TP2: 66,000
TP3: 68,500
🛑 Stop Loss: 59,000 (daily close basis)

Momentum indicators are slowly turning positive again and higher-low formation suggests accumulation is still active.

Watching closely for breakout confirmation.

Are you buying dips or waiting for confirmation?

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