Understanding crypto

Tip: after each dump or pump, the 50ema is usually critical for rejections so it’s important to always watch it. Here, we seem to be holding it.

Satoshi will soon be hearing from my lawyers if we continue this nonsense dump.

Tick-tock, tick-tock, Ethereum. ⏳

Although we don’t have many data points, the few we do have suggest that the rally typically begins in December or January. (This is based purely on time analysis. On the other hand, price analysis continues to indicate that we are in the bottom range, as highlighted by the square box.)

Once ETH takes off on its BTC pair, we can expect to see some real fireworks across other altcoins.

It shouldn’t be long now! 🚀

We will now have a Crypto czar in the whitehouse folks.
When I made a video essentially endorsing Trump, I was told “he’s just doing it for the votes bro”
Welp, he’s delivering on his promises already.
Good chance we moon this bull market higher than we all expected given a pro-crypto President in the helm. 🥂

Trump appoints pro crypto Paul Atkins for the next SEC chairman.
Great Times ahead folks 🥂
(Make sure to be following us on yt at understanding crypto)

Quick Bitcoin update
This update is more conditional than certain folks but here is my two cents:
By my analysis, bitcoin dearly needs to hit 100k IF NOT, It will keep on the move downwards with the ultimate bottom at 80-78k.
The 87k price can also act as the bottom (which is inside the trump wins zone we noted sometime ago) but we will need to check on Usdt.D if that happens to confirm!
Honestly, this for me would be the ideal scenario for BTC but if it can go to 100k then this theory would no longer be valid.
NOTE: This is just so that we have an idea of what is going on if price starts to dip. If instead it goes to 100k and beyond, then welp... pop the champagne 🍾

uhhh, what is going on with btc.d? It got slammed from our zone.
I saw it's formation on the lower timeframe on Friday night but i didn't want to get excited as this thing has trolled us for the better part of this bull.
We will need to see it create a lower high by using this zone as resistance then we can call the alt season.
Remember, historically, we should begin the alt super rally by December or January so either ways, it shouldn't be long now before this thing starts crashing hard!
Stay tuned to our videos @ understanding crypto yt.

To be clear, this pattern on ETH actually suggests a minimum of $15k and as high as $19k per ETH. Both of which are higher than my previous estimates.
Crazy yes? I know!
But it’s not far fetched however given that ETH did about a 55x in the last cycle and a 240x in the one before that.
Going to $19k would mean a 20x for ETH in this cycle.
This would drastically increase the value of all ETH-related projects and competitors.
(I don’t know if it will happen but that’s just what the pattern suggests. I’m just a messenger!)
Good times ahead!

let me make it easy for you just in case! $ETH

Happy thanksgiving! 🦃

Ethereum officially confirms its Bull 🐂 as it goes past the confirmation point at 3562.
Now, what the heck are those candles 🤣

Check previous forecast here

Bull Market Targets & Downtrend Analysis: BTC, Polkadot, Near, AVAX, GMT, Sei, and BTC Dominance. All now on Understanding Crypto (yt).

Jim Cramer told us to hold bitcoin literally at its peak!
Bitcoin now:

Ethereum is now heading towards uptrend confirmation!
We can consider the uptrend confirmed once ETH breaks $3562.
Note: this is micro. On the macro, it’s confirmed already to bring us great returns this cycle (7-10-13k and anything higher is gravy).

2026 sell off? Samuel Benner’s suggestion!

Just in case you didn’t know, the Terra network collapsed because of its flawed design. It used two tokens: UST (a stablecoin) and LUNA (a collateral token). UST was supposed to stay at $1 through a system where you could swap 1 UST for $1 worth of LUNA, but this only worked as long as people trusted it.
The real issue came from Anchor Protocol, which promised a massive 20% APY on UST deposits. This wasn’t sustainable as it depended on new money constantly flowing in. When people started losing confidence in UST, they pulled out, causing a "death spiral": UST lost its $1 peg, LUNA’s supply exploded, and both became worthless.
It looked promising but was built on a system that needed endless demand to survive, and when that demand dried up, it all collapsed.

This is similar to MicroStrategy’s approach with Bitcoin. The company not only relies heavily on Bitcoin as collateral for massive loans but also offers higher yields to its shareholders compared to what spot Bitcoin holders earn. This creates pressure to maintain Bitcoin's price high to support both its collateral value and its yield promises.
If Bitcoin's price drops significantly, the collateral value could fall, forcing MicroStrategy into margin calls or asset liquidation. This could trigger a feedback loop—similar to Terra’s "death spiral"—where declining confidence leads to further sell-offs and a potential collapse. Over-leveraging on a volatile asset combined with unsustainable yield promises is a risky strategy that could unravel if the market turns.
Perhaps i am completely wrong here BUT some things are not adding up!
I believe Bitcoin wasn't meant to be held this way and in the end, it will come down crashing and essentially reset.
anyways... what do i know 🤷‍♂️

Not gonna lie, I think Michael Saylor is running a ponzy scheme.
He buys Bitcoin, offers shares of it, and uses the money from the shares to buy more Bitcoin.
Basically, he’s buying Bitcoin and borrowing money using the bought Bitcoin as collateral to buy more Bitcoin.
So if Bitcoin was to have a catastrophic collapse, his entire shtick would go to zero 😬
If Bitcoin continues to go up, then he’s fine.
This is a lot like the architecture of Terra Luna.
Remember how Terra worked?
Very similar programming.

Check out this MVRV chart.
MV is the market value for all btc in circulation. Essentially the market cap.
RV is the realized value. Essentially an average for all btc purchases or the average cost basis.
So this chart shows us the relationship between the market value and the realized value.
Historically, the tops come in when the MVRV is at about 3.5 or above 3.
From the chart, one could draw the conclusion that when the MVRV is at or above the market price starting from 2018, we just top out. (Like start a mega drop into bear market).

So far, it shows that we still have a long journey ahead before that!

So after this analysis, I’m thinking we will end up at $57k on btc.
So after this analysis, I’m thinking we will end up at $57k on btc.