川三

There have been two consecutive days without the expected rebound strength, it is really weak

Yesterday, the main force did not choose to directly rise to 114,000 and then backtest,
but instead adopted a method of oscillation absorption + extended bottom time.
This is a typical extension of the bottom collection rhythm and does not change the directional expectation.

$BTC
Structure: Small divergence bottom oscillation → Mild bullish repair phase
Main force: Low position collection, not yet liquidated
Bias: Oscillation mildly bullish
Strategy: Buy low, reduce high, target first look at 111,000–113,000

$ETH
Structure: Intermediate correction end, small divergence mildly bullish repair in progress
Main force: Early absorption, preparing to drive BTC counterattack
Bias: Oscillation mildly bullish
Target: First look at 4,050, then look at 4,250


✨Spot
Has reached the mid-term buying zone, can appropriately increase positions, continue to treat it as a mid-term repair market.

Good morning, fellow friends!

Currently, $BTC and $ETH are both cautiously bullish.

Main bias: BTC is the focus, with a preference for observing ETH rather than acting.

BTC is currently in a bottom liquidity collection + small divergence oscillation phase,
with the main force not having offloaded, still collecting chips at low positions.
Structurally, a major trend has not yet been established, but there is short-term rebound momentum.
Main strategy: buy low and reduce at high, with a bullish oscillation. First target is 114,000


For spot trading, you can appropriately build a position at the following levels recently (mid-term buying point, can hold for a few weeks)
ETH 3850–3900
BTC 108,000–109,000

$ETH is currently in a divergent oscillation structure (mid-term bearish);

If 4200 fails to effectively break through and stabilize at the 4H structural high point, it is highly likely to retrace to 3850–3900;

If 3900 holds and a bullish divergence in RSI appears, a mid-term rebound may form again.

Market recovery takes time, and I hope it won't last too long, with good signs by the end of the month.

Additionally: Everyone has their own trading habits, and my own few indicators, based on structural judgment, still have reference significance. See the green arrows in the chart.

Referring to yesterday's analysis, $ETH is currently in the divergence repair stage, a non-trending market;
So

If there is an opportunity, a light position can be tried in the 3,850–3,800 range;
Consider reducing positions or selling high when it rebounds to around 4,200–4,300;

I will be back in a few months

Current $ETH rhythm leads $BTC half a cycle, ETH has entered a divergence and fluctuation, while BTC is still at the end of the rebound.

Funds are flowing back from ETH to BTC, and the next likely scenario is a rhythm switch of "BTC peak → ETH pullback → BTC correction".

✨ Today's operation strategy
• Contract short-term:
Around 115K can try to high sell low buy in fluctuations.
The main force is creating divergence and emotional excitement in this range, making it prone to repeated washing.
• Spot layout:
Wait for the 108K–112K range pullback to accumulate positions,
This is a re-entry zone for medium-term long positions.

✨ Current structure logic of BTC
Main force behavior path:
Low position accumulation completed → Pull up to test the supply area → Attract chasing longs → Create high position divergence.
Current momentum is slowing down, and the market is entering the "strong illusion" stage.
The main force may conduct fluctuation cleaning in the 115K–118K range,
Through repeated tug-of-war to absorb high position short positions and floating capital.

✨ Let's take a look at the emotional state of each cycle
Daily level:
The market is still in repair.
The main force is in the accumulation rebound stage, testing the upper liquidity, probing the average price area.

12H level:
Emotion is cautiously biased towards long.
The trend is entering a high area liquidity testing stage, with the main force slightly enticing longs to attract chasing orders.

4H level:
Divergence begins to widen.
Controlling funds use fluctuations to entice longs to accumulate positions, preparing to enter the washing stage.
The market is leaning towards high position sideways pressure.

1H level:
High position divergence is obvious.
RSI shows signs of dullness, volume begins to diverge,
Local clearing and washing actions may occur.

From a macro perspective, the current situation belongs to the "stage of excessive bearish sentiment", and panic selling is not advisable; rather, it’s a time to observe opportunities for buying at low prices.

First, let's look at the potential impact of tariffs on the market / cryptocurrency assets.
1. Market risk aversion increases
A sudden and significant increase in tariffs represents a major macro shock, which may trigger panic capital flowing into safe-haven assets (such as gold, US dollars, government bonds). Cryptocurrency assets are generally perceived as high-risk assets and may come under pressure in this situation.
2. Capital flows prioritize "US dollars / US dollar assets"
If US dollar assets are considered to have "stronger safe-haven properties", capital will flee from higher-risk assets (like cryptocurrencies). This is negative for ETH / BTC in the short term.

For $ETH , considering the structural state on the ETH K-line, I personally tend to believe:
• The current ETH structure is in a bottom-building stage, with signs of accumulation as expected.
• Macroeconomic news such as "100% tariffs" may serve as a short-term downward accelerator, pulling prices down to test support.
• However, if the price can hold key support ( ~3450–3750 range) during the downward probe, along with divergence in trading volume and momentum indicators, there may be a possibility of a rebound to repair the structure after the news shock.

Currently in the rising trend of "small divergence repair → synchronous upward preparation stage".
$BTC stable and slightly strong, $ETH additional rise imminent.

Maintain a bullish mindset, pay attention to BTC 121,000 and ETH 4300 during pullbacks.

Let's take a closer look at BTC's situation (ETH situation is similar, showing signs of capital inflow)

BTC market sentiment and main force intention
✨Market Sentiment
• The decline in the past 48 hours belongs to a low-volume pullback, accompanied by RSI maintaining above 40 in the 4H cycle;
• During the decline, trading volume shrank, and OBV did not create a new low, indicating that capital has not flowed out;
• Market sentiment is cautious, but there are no signs of panic or concentrated stop-losses;
• Structurally, the high and low points remain elevated, still in the small divergence repair stage of the rising trend.
✨Main Force Intention
• The main funds are conducting liquidity cleaning + re-accumulation;
• The current control range is located at 120,000–121,000 (PDL support zone), which has sufficient support;
• The target range is concentrated at 124,000–126,000:
• 124,000 is the short-term structural high / PDH upper edge
• 126,000 is the Premium supply zone / liquidity inducement position
• The main intention is: to collect liquidity through fluctuations and then push up to test the high supply area.
✨Current Bias
Bullish dominance, pullbacks can be bought.
Structure is not damaged, pullbacks are seen as re-accumulation signals, expected to continue the trend.

$BNB Phase Target and Main Intent Analysis

Comprehensive Fibonacci Extension, Market Value Estimation, and SMC Structure Three Major Models:
• Fibonacci Extension: $1350–$1450 —— The endpoint of the main bullish wave stage, main force high position selling area.
• Market Value Estimation: $1350–$1700 —— Ecological valuation upper limit, corresponding to extreme emotional market.
• SMC Structure: $1320–$1380 —— Liquidity absorption zone, with risks of false breakout and distribution.

✨Conclusion:
The current main force of BNB's phase target is likely located in the $1350–$1450 range.

If the market is pushed above $1450, but there is a divergence in volume and price, and the daily RSI continues to stagnate above 70 (slowly not returning to 60–65),

it is highly likely to mean this is the last round of emotional peak, where the main force uses strong illusions for liquidity harvesting.

In other words: Although the trend is strong, the market has entered the final stage of the main bullish wave, beware of high-position divergence under 'false strength'.

Dear friends, I wonder if everyone has gained from the market in the past few days?
Today is the first day of work, wishing everyone a week full of wealth and may all your wishes come true!💰🔥

Current situation:
Short-term observation, waiting for the main force to signal a buying opportunity;
The medium-term trend is unbroken, still focusing on low buy positions after a healthy pullback.
Starting with $BTC , followed by $ETH .

Currently, BTC's main funds are clearly intending to conduct a liquidity washout, short-term bias is bearish, and the medium-term still belongs to a healthy retracement phase.

Although there is an expectation of price pullback, an effective entry structure has not yet formed, so there is no need for hasty operations at this time; it is advisable to wait for the signal to appear.

Key attention should be paid to two core support ranges:
• BTC: 121,000 – 118,000
• ETH: 4,200 – 4,300

If the price forms a buying structure or confirms a BOS breakout within the above range, it will be an ideal opportunity for medium-term long positions to re-enter.

Currently, BTC still plays the role of leading market signals,
ETH is generally following the rhythm, with direction and structural changes lagging half a cycle.
Therefore, one can take BTC's structural changes as a reference before confirming ETH's following rhythm for positioning.

Current $ETH and $BTC trends are basically synchronized:
• Both have turned from the high supply area → Confirmed trend weakening.
• Both are oscillating near the key discount area/demand zone, showing the game of short-term bottom fishing vs main force suppression.

Market sentiment:
• Medium term: bearish → Structure has weakened, and the main force has continued downward momentum.
• Short term: weak rebound → Using oversold to lure in buyers, with a greater nature of washout.

✨Main force intentions:
• Highly likely to continue downward if the demand zone cannot be held, with true deep demand at ETH 3850–3600, BTC 110k–108k.
• If the rebound is to take shape, it must at least recover ETH 4350 / BTC 114.5k, otherwise, it is just a technical correction.

$ETH currently bearish, the trend is still downward.

However, due to the oversold condition on the 1H/15m charts + liquidity sweep, a short-term rebound may occur → testing the 4440–4550 range.
If the rebound cannot reclaim 4550, the focus remains on shorting.
If it continues to break below 4300, look towards 4150–4200.

$BTC currently similar to ETH, in a trend-down phase after a major divergence.
There may be a small rebound during the day, but the overall direction remains downward, with resistance at 115k–116k and support at 113k.
The main players may use the rebound to entice buyers and then push down again to sweep liquidity at 110k–111k.

$BNB Currently strong, but has entered a high divergence zone, not suitable for blindly chasing the rise. Key observation 953–960 whether to hold, if it holds, continue to look above 1000; if it breaks, prevent accelerated replenishment to 926–934.

Upper target positions:
First target: 1020–1040
Second target: 1070–1080
Ultimate target: 1120–1130

Currently, BTC and ETH are both in a stage of small divergence sideways → with a general bullish direction.
More suitable to wait for a reversal confirmation order after sweeping liquidity, rather than chasing in between.

BTC: 117k is the main control area for the leading position, and a false breakout may occur at any time. The lower level of 116.8k is the key support level; if it holds, continue to look bullish.

ETH: The trend is slightly weaker than BTC, relying more on BTC's movement. Support is seen at 4550, 4520; if it holds, there is a chance to continue challenging 4680–4800.

✨Let's take a closer look at ETH's performance in the past 24 hours:
• 1H/30m: ETH is oscillating around the 4600 level, repeatedly moving between PDH (previous high) and Equilibrium (balanced position). Overall, it is a strong oscillation, as the lows are gradually rising, but the highs are also constrained by the upper liquidity area.
• 15m: The structure is clearer, with frequent occurrences of BOS/CHOCH, indicating that intraday funds are testing the long and short directions, belonging to a small divergence.
• 4H/12H: The higher level is still in a continuation phase of an upward trend. After rebounding from the previous low of 4400–4450's Discount area, it has maintained in the Premium zone. Long and short positions are repeatedly competing in the liquidity zone of 4600–4700.
• 1D: The main trend is still upward, after a significant bullish surge, it is currently consolidating at a high level to digest positions.

Last night's market situation was characterized by an early consumption of positive news, with the interest rate decision result: 4.25%, in line with expectations; future interest rate expectations adjusted downward → moderately dovish.

Interpretation of major players' actions:
1. No direct breakthrough: indicates that major players are not in a hurry to push up but are using news to accumulate positions + clear liquidity.
2. Strong support below ($BTC 114k, $ETH 4450–4480): major players still maintain an upward pattern and do not want the structure to weaken.
3. Liquidity above has not been cleared (BTC 117–118k, ETH 4580–4620), possibly waiting for the next time window to clear stop-loss orders in this area.
Current market judgment:
• Nature: The past 24 hours have been a small divergence and oscillation, with major players harvesting liquidity within the range, not breaking out of the trend.
• Sentiment: Moderately optimistic (support from positive interest rates), but the market is also on guard against "positive news cashing out and crashing the market."

✨Possible actions of major players:
• Continue to maintain range oscillation, repeatedly clearing liquidity up and down.
• If market sentiment continues to be positive, it may push up and break through BTC 117–118k, ETH 4580–4620, opening a new wave of trend.
• If the breakthrough fails, it is highly likely to revisit BTC 114k, ETH 4450 to clear positions.

The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (FOMC) on the market of $ETH :

1. If it only meets expectations (rate cut of 25bp):
• As the market has already priced it in, the market may "buy the rumor, sell the news," resulting in a short-term spike followed by a pullback (false breakout).
2. If it is more dovish (indicating continued rate cuts, lower dot plot):
• U.S. stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies will see a short-term rally, with ETH having the opportunity to test the upper range of 4600–4720.
3. If it is somewhat hawkish (insufficient rate cuts, or emphasizing economic resilience, no urgency to cut rates in the future):
• The U.S. dollar index will rebound, risk assets will come under pressure, and ETH may directly test the support zone of 4450–4400.

Currently, ETH is stuck around the balanced level of 4510, with the main players clearly waiting for this meeting's outcome.
During the day, it is likely to maintain narrow fluctuations before the decision, with the real directional choice needing to wait for the Federal Reserve event at 02:00–02:30.

Dear fellow friends, $ETH currently 4H / 1H is relatively cautious and bearish, waiting to see if it holds 4520, then confirm the strength of the intraday rebound.

Let's take a look at the specific structure:
✨4H
• Current trend: The overall structure is still bullish, but recently has shown a decreasing high point (HH → LH), resulting in divergence.
• Structure: 4H has entered a small divergence stage, but has not completely deteriorated.
• Sentiment: The bearish momentum of 4H is strengthening, and the main force seems to be accumulating near 4520, possibly preparing for a second surge.

• Key:
• Support: 4520, if it fails to hold, the bears will further probe down to the 4300 area.
• Resistance: 4680, once broken, it can push to 4800.

✨1H
• Current trend: 1H has completed the BOS breakdown and has retested the EQ area.
• Structure: Bearish, but belongs to a small intraday divergence, and the downward momentum may be close to release.
• Sentiment: Short-term bears are dominant, but there is a need for a rebound correction.
• Key: Pay attention to whether 4600 – 4620 is reclaimed; otherwise, it will retest 4450.

✨Key positions
• Upper resistance: 4680 – 4720
• Lower support: 4520 (current key defense), if it fails, then 4450, 4400, 4300.

On Saturday, let's briefly discuss the analysis of the current market situation👀

$ETH Current market sentiment
• Slightly optimistic/excited: After the breakout, short-term sentiment is leaning towards bullish, with increased FOMO entry funds.
• However, the main intent: More likely to use sentiment to push higher, test upper liquidity (sweep previous high stop-loss orders), and then consider whether to alternate turnover.
Currently, there is no clear divergence, but it is gradually entering a small divergence phase (trend is still on, but risk is starting to accumulate).

Currently, we are looking to see if it can hold above 4700/4680, wash out before pulling back for another wave, continuing to challenge 4750.

If it breaks below 4670, short-term momentum weakens, with a pullback to 4630–4600.