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Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency giant that for many is synonymous with financial freedom, is not as safe as it seems, according to one analyst. Justin Bons, founder of the crypto investment firm Cyber ​​Capital, highlighted that Bitcoin could be heading for its own collapse. And not in centuries, but in a much shorter timeframe than any enthusiast would like to imagine: between 2031 and 2036.
In a recent post on the social network X, Bons explained why he sees a worrisome future for the world's most popular network. It all stems from simple math: the block reward decreases with each halving (the mechanism that regulates the issuance of new bitcoins), and according to his calculations, by 2036 miners would be receiving just 0.39 BTC per block. At current prices, that translates to about $2.3 billion per year to protect a network that, by then, could have a market capitalization in the trillions. The problem? That figure, says Bons, would not be enough to deter potential attackers. Bons went further. He warned that this weakness in the "security budget" could open the door to 51% attacks, a type of "insider hack" in which someone takes majority control of the network to manipulate transactions. A scenario that, although unlikely today, could become more viable if the economic incentives to protect the network weaken.

But the problems aren't just economic. According to Bons, Bitcoin's governance also plays against it. He criticized the rigidity of the Bitcoin Core development team, accusing them of blocking potential solutions such as increasing the block size or allowing controlled inflation beyond the 21 million-coin limit. This stance, which already divided the community between 2015 and 2017, could reopen wounds... or even lead to a permanent fracture of the network.
As if all this weren't enough, Bons also sounded the alarm about advances in quantum computing. Although they still seem distant, some experts believe these technologies could compromise Bitcoin's cryptographic security, especially in older wallets. And here, opinions are divided: while Google's Craig Gidney places the risk between 2030 and 2035, others, such as David Carvalho and investor Chamath Palihapitiya, believe the problem could explode in just five years. In the worst-case scenario, up to 30% of all bitcoins could be compromised.
While these warnings aren't definitive, they do offer a rare perspective on the future of "digital gold." Bons estimates that if these problems aren't addressed, the collapse could occur between seven and 11 years from now. A tough prediction for those who still see Bitcoin as an eternal safe haven.
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