SpeculationLab

In Kusatsu City, Shiga Prefecture, a case where a teacher in their 40s was defrauded of approximately 180 million yen worth of cryptocurrency by a person claiming to be a police officer or prosecutor.
They were informed that 'their account is under investigation' and were instructed to open an account and make a transfer.

When observing this type of fraud, it tends to converge on the same points.
① The moment they are placed on the 'suspected side' rather than as a victim.
② Conversations progress only via phone or video call.
③ They are asked for action (opening an account, transferring money) before discussing the content.
④ There is time pressure with statements like 'right now' and 'if you don't cooperate, it will be unfavorable.'
⑤ At some point, moving assets becomes a prerequisite.

There is no rationality for the police or prosecutors to request individuals to transfer assets.
Once that line is crossed, the conversation is closer to guidance rather than investigation.

It is not so much about the presence or absence of knowledge, but when one is simultaneously deprived of their position and time, judgment tends to go awry.
Therefore, rather than asking 'Is this true?', I think it is more realistic to ask 'Is this flow natural?'

The Bank of Japan is increasingly likely to raise interest rates.
While this may seem like a domestic issue in Japan, it is not unrelated to global markets, especially risk assets like BTC.

For many years, the low-interest yen has been used as "the cheapest money in the world," supporting investments in stocks and cryptocurrencies. As this premise begins to change, the flow of funds will gradually shift as well.

What is important is not the interest rate number itself, but how many positions have been built based on the assumption of a "cheap yen." This movement may serve as a catalyst to reassess the structure of the market beyond just short-term price movements.

Forbes predicts that 2026 will be an era where multiple technologies such as AI, blockchain, and robots overlap.🤖

In recent years, we have often heard about blockchain, but it is more a mechanism that changes "how we record and trust" rather than a new way to make money.🧩

The point is simple.
Who holds the records?
Until now, a single administrator, such as banks or companies, managed the records.🏦
In blockchain, multiple people hold the same record individually.
Therefore, it is meaningless to rewrite only part of it.
If it differs from others, it can be recognized immediately.✍️

The role of the FRB (Federal Reserve Board) is simple.
Maximizing employment and ensuring price stability, these two must be maintained simultaneously.

If employment is too strong, inflation is likely to occur,
and if inflation is too weak, the economy cools and employment worsens.
The FRB is always monitoring this balance.

The two main tools used for adjustment are:
① Interest rates: Adjusting the momentum of consumption and investment = the speed of the economy
② Money supply: Adjusting the financial environment itself through QE and QT

Although policy may seem complex,
it is fundamentally centered around this structure.

There is a trading strategy with a win rate of 90%. Perhaps it will be quite accurate.

When you are in the bathroom. When you are eating. While shopping. Right before you go to sleep or just after you wake up.
In such casual moments, when you accidentally open the exchange.

"This price feels good, doesn't it?" "It seems ready to break out soon" "If I don't buy now, I might get left behind"

Thinking like that, when your fingers can't stop anymore.
Just slide those fingers a little down and press "Sell."

It's not just economic indicators that move the FOMC.
Doves, hawks, and centrists——
Understanding these three "dynamics" will clarify market reactions significantly.
In this illustration, I've summarized what each group prioritizes in various situations so that it's easy to understand at a glance.
The direction of the market changes greatly depending on "who holds the reins."

When I was learning painting, my teacher said, 'The best people have the best timing for stopping.'
Even now, while trading, I really think the same thing.
It's not about buying; it's about where to sell or where to cut that makes a person strong.

【The Core of the Rebound｜Vegas Edition】

After the price moves significantly away from the moving average line, it first returns to around Vegas.
When a "long wick" appears here, it becomes easier for a rebound to occur.

The reason for this is that the orders that have diverged are consumed, and there are many traders who base their strategies on Vegas. Whether it’s an upward or downward movement, this "initial return" is an easy target point.

However, since rebounds can occur deeply, a smaller position size + pre-set stop-loss is essential.

#BTC #ETH #candlestick_patterns

【Breaking News】Nomura revises FOMC outlook to 'rate cut'
Nomura predicts a 25bps rate cut at the December meeting.
The background includes dovish comments from Williams and Daly.
However, four members oppose the outlook for a rate cut.
On the other hand, Director Milan may support a 50bps rate cut.

Source: Reuters

The world in 2026 will not be about the "evolution of AI," but rather the "fusion" of AI × Robots × Blockchain taking center stage.

Forbes has indicated that technology will connect in one line, and the forms of our work, lives, and businesses will quietly but surely undergo 14 changes.

The foundation of trust in AI, agent economy, specialized robots, privacy regulations, the infrastructure of Web3, and the future where avatars become the "face" of companies——.

2026 will be the year when technology overlaps and the world is redesigned.
I have summarized it in an illustration, so please take a look if you are interested.

#Aİ #ロボット #ブロックチェーン

In the midst of a trend's "consolidation," it becomes easier for a significant movement to occur just once.
This movement is the moment when large players aim for stops.

If buying is skewed sideways, the stops for long positions are mostly on the lower side of the range. It is common to see a quick move to take these out before returning to the original direction.
The key point is the change in OI at the moment of a sharp drop (or rise).

If OI suddenly decreases, it's a sign that stops have been collectively taken out.
Whether in an uptrend or downtrend, this "movement" occurs with the same structure.
A typical move is to break out of the range and run swiftly to the recent high (or low).

#ストップ狩り #BTC #ETH

【The Essence of Ascending and Descending Triangles. What are the 'Precedents' of a Breaking Market?】
An ascending triangle is a shape where the lows gradually rise while the highs are capped. Because buying pressure continues to build, it is a very high-accuracy pattern that tends to break upwards easily.

However, because it is too well-known, right after it breaks, it can easily pull back deeply, so in the short term, it is essential to capture the 'initial wave of movement.'

A descending triangle is the exact opposite, where the highs gradually decline while the lows are supported. It tends to break down easily while being dominated by selling pressure, and it is also likely to extend after breaking down.

In both cases, the break after building pressure over a long time frame is the most reliable.

#BTC #ETH #TechnicalAnalysis

The market where you could "make a fortune in an instant" like in the past will not return.

That's why, now is the time to
・Determine what you can do
・Determine what you cannot do
is important.

Today's illustration summarizes that.

#BTC #ETH #仮想通貨市場

The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December is becoming more likely.
The market has already priced in an 80% chance,
and Governor Ueda's remarks have also shifted to a tone typical before a rate hike.
The rapid rise in long-term interest rates and coordination with the government——
now is the most favorable timing for movement.

【Breaking News】Japan's Cryptocurrency Tax System Finally Changing from a Maximum of 55% to 20%? A Revised Roadmap Illustrated

Japan's heavy tax system of "miscellaneous income at a maximum of 55%" is finally showing signs of change.
If this is realized, there is a possibility that Japan's individual investor funds (estimated to be in the trillions of yen) will return to the market.
We have summarized the current situation and future roadmap in a single illustration.

▼ Current Issues (Steep Hill)
・Maximum Tax Rate 55% (Miscellaneous Income)
・No Carryover of Losses (If you lose, it's over)

▼ Future After Revision (Highway)
・Separate Declaration Taxation 20.315% ✨
・Loss Carryover Possible for 3 Years
・Considering the Lifting of ETF Restrictions and Loss Compensation

There is a possibility of implementation as early as 2027.
Will this be the signal for the revival of Japan's Web3? It's worth paying attention to.
Please save and review the illustration👇

$BTC $ETH $XRP
#Japan #Tax #Web3 #CryptoNews #Investment

【The Royal Road of Market Reversal 📉📈｜Head and Shoulders・Inverse Head and Shoulders】
🔹Inverse Head and Shoulders (Bullish Reversal)
・When the neckline is clearly broken, it tends to rise by the range from the center low to the neckline.
・The 4-hour chart has the least number of false signals and functions effectively.
・During an uptrend, it is also effective as 'creating a dip' on the 15-minute/1-hour charts🔥

🔹Head and Shoulders Top (Bearish Reversal)
・A complete reversal of the Inverse Head and Shoulders. After breaking the neckline, it tends to drop by the range from the center high to the neckline.
・If it appears near the upper limit of the range, accuracy increases.
・The reliability is high in the order of 4H > shorter time frames 📉

Both patterns have a strong 'reproducibility of price range' and are essential for reading turning points✨