According to reports from Jin10 data, the CME 'FedWatch' shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 15.5%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 84.5%. By March next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 42.2%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 51.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 6.0%.
What you think is 'having seen the world' may just be a superficial brush with money!
Have you noticed—many people go abroad a few times, take a couple of selfies at landmarks, and think they have 'seen the world'; drink a few sips of fine wine, mingle at some high-end gatherings, and believe they understand the upper-class games; buy a few top-tier assets, stay a few nights at five-star hotels, and think they have seen through the splendor. In fact, this is not called seeing the world; this is called seeing the shadow of money.
Even the money itself is hard to understand; it's just a cycle within the illusion of consumption.
If your understanding of the 'real world' is limited to superficial pleasures like eating, drinking, and having fun, your perspective is essentially locked at the most shallow level.
It's like only looking at K-line trends in the crypto world without understanding the underlying logic, making it easy to be repeatedly harvested by emotions. The real world is not about switching physical spaces or jumping asset classes.
Today is Christmas, and the cryptocurrency market is generally quiet with low liquidity, while the price fluctuations of major assets are limited. Here is the latest summary:
Bitcoin ($BTC ) price trend: BTC is currently oscillating in the range of $85,000-$90,000, maintaining this range throughout December without following the significant rise of U.S. stocks or new highs in gold. Today, it has slightly dropped to around $87,000-$88,000 (about 1%), failing to break through the $90,000 resistance. Historical data shows that BTC fluctuations during Christmas are usually small, and this year is no exception.
Overall market performance: The total market capitalization is around $3 trillion, slightly declining. Most top cryptocurrencies (like $ETH , $SOL , ADA) have followed the downward trend, while altcoins have performed even weaker. ETF fund outflows are significant: BTC ETF had a net outflow of over $500 million last week, and ETH ETF also saw outflows. Reasons include year-end tax loss selling, institutional rebalancing, and low holiday liquidity.
Institutional and company dynamics: Institutions like JPMorgan continue to invest in the crypto space, and market sentiment is turning positive. Trump Media has transferred about 2,000 BTC (worth $174 million). Bitcoin miners' hash power has decreased by about 4%, indicating that some miners are reducing production or exiting the market.
Christmas-related hot topics: Surveys show that 28% of Americans (with Gen Z as high as 45%) hope to receive cryptocurrency as Christmas gifts, despite the market's volatility. Many see crypto as a "gift of the future," but some are cautious due to this year's fluctuations.
2025 review and outlook: This year, the structure of the crypto market has significantly improved (ETF approvals, regulatory friendliness, record M&A at $8.6 billion), but the price performance has been lackluster: BTC peaked at $126,000 before retreating, with limited annual gains, and many institutional predictions (like $250,000) have not materialized. Analysts expect a potentially stronger 2026.
Overall, the Christmas holiday market is quiet, with no major positive or negative news. It is recommended to pay attention to the recovery of liquidity after the holidays, which may bring volatility. Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas!
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Latest Developments: Promoting Federal Reserve Reform, Launching Large-Scale Investigation into Border Money Laundering
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent activities focus on Federal Reserve reform, combating illegal capital flows, and adjusting monetary policy.
Bessent confirmed on December 24 that the government is interviewing candidates for the Federal Reserve chair, seeking leaders who can "shrink the size of the Federal Reserve and end permanent quantitative easing." He criticized the Federal Reserve as an "engine of inequality" and suggested that once inflation sustainably returns to 2%, the 2% target should be changed to a range (e.g., 1%-3%) to increase flexibility. This statement was made during an appearance on the All-In Podcast, drawing market attention.
On December 22-23, Bessent announced the launch of a data-driven federal investigation targeting over 100 money services businesses (MSBs) at the U.S.-Mexico border, suspected of being involved in money laundering related to drug trafficking organizations. This operation utilizes advanced technology to track the flow of funds and has issued investigation notices, IRS referrals, and compliance letters. Bessent emphasized that this initiative aims to combat drug trafficking, human trafficking, and other drug inflows, responding to the Trump administration's priority on economic security.
Additionally, Bessent completed the divestiture of $12.4 million in soybean farm assets to avoid conflicts of interest; his strong political style (e.g., public partisan activities) breaks from tradition and has earned praise from Trump, but has raised some concerns. Bessent is also pushing for reforms at the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) to reduce burdensome regulations and prioritize economic growth.
Summary: Bessent is aggressively advancing the streamlining of the Federal Reserve, loosening regulations, and combating border money laundering, showcasing a professional market approach and a combative political style. U.S. fiscal monetary policy may face significant changes by 2026. #美联储回购协议计划
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#BTC View the post to receive 🧧🧧🧧 Christmas Eve Cryptocurrency Overview: Hidden Benefits, Fluctuations Need to Guard Against Spike
✅ Institutional Movements Remain Active BlackRock's IBIT has a net inflow of over $25 billion this year, whales are increasing their holdings of SOL and staking, Bitmine spent $88 million to purchase ETH, and the long-term allocation logic remains strong.
✅ Platform Actions Add Vitality Binance launched the KGST/USDT spot pair today + activated trading bots; Coinbase will add 110 new spot pairs by 2025, with over 350 tradable assets, and the ecosystem continues to expand.
✅ Influencers Call for Stability Former BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is bullish: the Federal Reserve's policy is equivalent to QE, with BTC targets aiming for $124,000 → $200,000.
⚠️ Risk Warning BTC fell below $87,000 today, with over $250 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours (high proportion of long positions)! Low liquidity during the holiday + decreasing probability of interest rate cuts in January, beware of extreme spike conditions. The core PCE data on the 26th is crucial, and a drop in inflation may become a catalyst for rebound!