衡玉分析师

US inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.05%, hitting a multi-year low

Wall Street was instantly excited, with traders expressing disbelief, and the Federal Reserve has thus obtained a "passport" for further interest rate cuts

Market chatter is growing louder:

The probability of a rate cut in October is as high as 93%

Liquidity is about to surge

Risk assets may experience an explosion

This is not just a cold number, but a turning point in the rules. Cooling inflation means that policies are finally going to loosen, and new capital vitality is about to flood into the market

The stock market, cryptocurrencies, and commodities are all waiting for the starting gun.

History tells us that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts often bring about significant volatility

October may rewrite the entire financial landscape of 2025

There are many divine pills every year, especially many this year #币安HODLer空投XPL $ETH

Have we been set up by this guy?

We were tricked into getting in the car, and ETH has fallen below 4000? #币安HODLer空投XPL $ETH

Exclusive Interpretation: Don't Believe the "Soft Landing" Nonsense! Inside News: The Federal Reserve is panicking themselves! Miguel will guide you to layout the first wave of wealth password for interest rate cuts!

"The Federal Reserve's brakes are too harsh; if they don't ease up, the economy might just stall!"

Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated a big truth today: the current interest rate of 4%-4.25% is like slamming the brakes while flooring the gas; it has severely affected the normal operation of the economy.

He advocates for a quick interest rate cut, even suggesting to "first slam the gas pedal down twice," and then make slight adjustments once the speed stabilizes.

This sends a key signal—cracks have appeared in the hawkish wall within the Federal Reserve!

Compared to other officials' rhetoric of "higher and longer," Milan's speech is equivalent to dropping a "dovish bomb" within the central bank.

Notably, the strategy he mentioned of "short-term rapid interest rate cuts + cautious observation later" essentially serves as a warning to the market: economic fragility may far exceed surface data.

Historical experience tells us that when cracks appear in the traditional financial system, funds instinctively migrate towards anti-censorship assets.

If the Federal Reserve truly starts "panic-style interest rate cuts," which altcoins do you think might become new entry points for safe-haven funds?

Follow @衡玉分析师 , dissect the "interest rate cut cycle cryptocurrency asset layout map"! #美SEC和CFTC加密监管合作 $BTC

9.25 日内短线 【@衡玉分析师 】

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September 25 Inner Alchemy 【@衡玉分析师 】

Today I made pills with fans, a total of 106 points, full of harvest, and I am very happy to receive the fans' affirmation!

Can your direction be like Hengyu? During this time, the bottom was completely wiped out. I said to short, and there was a chorus of criticism. In the end, one saying is true: walking your own path is what matters, whether it's right or wrong is not important; what matters is how much U you have in your pocket, earning into your pocket is the ultimate goal!

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Stunning Delay! Non-farm Payroll 'Difficult Birth', Global Market Barefoot! On October 10, the night before Bitcoin's major change, is your position waiting to die?

What the market fears most is not bad news, but 'uncertainty'.

Now, the U.S. government may shut down, and even key economic data has to be 'late'. Traders' anxiety has already been clearly priced in the options market!

Simply put, the U.S. September non-farm payroll data, originally scheduled for release on October 3, may be delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown.

The foreign exchange options market has secretly begun to bet on this 'delay risk'.

For example, options expiring on October 10 and 17 have suddenly been snatched up, especially the contracts for October 10, which are the most sought after, equivalent to someone buying 'insurance' for market volatility in those days.

I think this reflects two layers of signals:

The market is betting on 'volatility explosion': global exchange rate volatility is currently as low as the calm before a storm, but options buyers are willing to pay a premium, indicating they sense that the non-farm delay will compound policy uncertainty. Once the data is released, it may trigger severe fluctuations in exchange rates.

A similar situation occurred during the 2018 U.S. government shutdown, when U.S. stocks and Bitcoin both experienced flash crashes.

Don’t be complacent in the crypto circle: Non-farm data directly affects the strength of the U.S. dollar, and there is often a seesaw effect between the dollar and Bitcoin.

If the delay in data leads to confusion in Federal Reserve policy expectations, dollar volatility may transmit to the cryptocurrency market.

If even traditional institutions are quietly insuring against 'data delays', shouldn’t we crypto players also check our position protection in advance?

Let’s discuss in the comments: Do you think this non-farm delay will become the fuse for Bitcoin's trend change?

Lost in the crypto circle and can't find your way? Follow @衡玉分析师 for nightly cooking, daily market analysis + hot topic tracking, guiding you through the fog to see the direction! #币安HODLer空投XPL $BTC

When the Federal Reserve speaks, the crypto market shakes! Is tonight's all-star bombardment going to make your wallet soar or bury it in the ground? The answer lies in these 2 hours!

Why is tonight a "life-and-death situation"?
The folks at the Federal Reserve usually talk like squeezing toothpaste, but tonight they're coming out firing—ticket committee controls interest rate hikes and cuts, permanent ticket committee controls dollar credit, and board members control regulatory life and death. These three together are like setting three emotional bombs in the crypto market.

The core logic is summed up in one sentence: the dollar is the "oxygen tank" of the crypto world.
When the dollar interest rate rises, money runs to the bank, and the crypto market suffocates; when the dollar interest rate falls, money runs everywhere, and the crypto market becomes a black hole for capital; loose regulation allows altcoins to soar; tight regulation means even Bitcoin shakes in fear.

My view: Don't guess the direction, watch for the "signal flares"!
The market is like a gambler, betting on the shape of the Federal Reserve's mouth. But don't forget, the big shots love to speak in "cryptic tones"—
Goolsbee saying "inflation is controllable" might be hinting that "interest rate cuts are coming"; Williams talking about a "strong dollar" might be warning that "stablecoins are going to shrink"; Bowman mentioning "regulatory innovation" could be giving DeFi the green light.

The key is not what they say, but how the market "interprets" it.
So tonight, focus on which interpretation of "dovish" and "hawkish" is more fierce.
Don't operate blindly! Reduce your position to below 50%, wait for Bowman to finish talking about regulation at 22:00, then see how the market chooses a side.

Final reminder: Don't be a "retail gambler"!
Set price alerts (BTC 110000/115000, ETH 3900/4200), put your phone on vibrate mode, don't get dizzy from the news; stay away from "insider news", even the big shots don't know how the market will interpret it; most importantly: don't go All in! The crypto market has no "sure thing", only "survival".

"Is tonight's market a ticket to financial freedom or a tombstone for liquidation? Share your holdings in the comments, and let's witness history together! Share with your brothers, don't let them miss this 'life-and-death situation'!"
(I am Heng Yu, the most outspoken analyst in the crypto circle. Follow @衡玉分析师 to cook at night, helping you dodge the guillotine and feast on the big meat!) #币安HODLer空投XPL $ETH

Attention everyone! The forex market is in turmoil!

If the US government shuts down, the non-farm payroll data for September, which was supposed to be released on October 3rd, will definitely be delayed!

The forex options market has gone crazy, all betting on this issue! October 10th and 17th are the most likely "release dates" after the data delay, especially the 10th, where the market is betting wildly, and the volatility premium is through the roof! Right now, exchange rate fluctuations are like still water; this wave of demand and premium is simply blinding!

Those who play with cryptocurrencies are all watching—such a stir with the non-farm data means that the forex and crypto markets will have to shake too! Data delays = explosive market variables, will you feast or be beaten? Who can stay steady on the 10th? Keep a close eye on this wave, or you will regret it to the point of slapping your thigh!

If you currently feel helpless and confused about trading, and want to learn more about cryptocurrency-related knowledge and cutting-edge information, click on my avatar to follow me @衡玉分析师 , and I'll take you through the bull and bear markets #币安全球区块链百强创作者奖 $BTC

Federal Reserve Policy Game Escalates: Basent Publicly Pressures Powell, Rate Cut Path Contains Hidden Secrets

On September 25, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basent made significant remarks on Fox Business Channel, pointing out that the Federal Reserve's rate cut of 25 basis points on September 25 is merely a "stopgap measure". Confidential documents held by his team indicate that the White House's true policy goal aims for a cumulative rate cut of 100-150 basis points within the year. This policy game has triggered severe turbulence in global capital markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing a daily fluctuation of over 500 points, and gold prices plummeting by 2.3%.

In an exclusive interview, Basent's language was intense: "Powell's silence is shocking! In the face of the risk of an economic hard landing, the Federal Reserve must immediately initiate an aggressive rate cut of 100-150 basis points". He cited internal Treasury models indicating that the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% has exceeded neutral levels, causing 30-year mortgage rates to soar to 7%, directly suppressing demand in the real estate market. Data shows that U.S. real estate transaction volume has shrunk by 23% from its peak, and the bankruptcy rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has risen by 17% year-on-year.

This policy divergence stems from fundamentally different economic judgments: Powell emphasizes the dual risk of "rising inflation and falling employment", while Basent's team has discovered through revised employment data that the actual unemployment rate is underestimated by 0.8 percentage points, indicating an "implicit crisis" within the economy. Notably, newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan cast a dissenting vote in the September meeting, advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut, which Basent praised as "fresh blood breaking the bureaucratic system".

What is even more intriguing is that Basent announced that next week he will intensively interview 11 candidates for Federal Reserve Chair, with a focus on key candidates to be finalized in early October. It has been revealed that BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, former Federal Reserve Governor Walsh, and other market participants are all among the candidates, many of whom advocate for extraordinary rate cuts. This "blood replacement strategy" has been interpreted by The Wall Street Journal as the White House's attempt to reshape the Federal Reserve's decision-making system.

Market reactions show deep divisions: CME data indicates that traders have lowered their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of the year from 50 basis points to 25 basis points, while betting on a neutral interest rate above the current level, reflecting institutions' vigilance regarding "policy reversals".

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Family, listen up! Tonight at 20:30, the Americans will release the "Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 20th"!

This data is like a "thermometer" for the job market, directly tied to the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate hikes and cuts. The cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks are like grasshoppers on the same string! The previous value was 235,000, and the expectation is 231,000. If the published number is lower than 235,000, employment stability means the Federal Reserve will hike rates even more aggressively, and the cryptocurrency market will be pressed down hard; if it unexpectedly exceeds 235,000, employment will be weak and rate hike expectations will cool, leading to a potential surge in the cryptocurrency market!

Right now, with the data yet to be released, can the brothers holding positions handle the pressure? For those who are out of the market, have you thought about chasing the rise and cutting the fall? Remember, once the data is out, whether your position explodes or gets cut, it all depends on this one shiver! Keep a close eye on the market, don’t wait until you’re harvested before you shout!

If you currently feel helpless or confused in trading, and want to learn more about the cryptocurrency market and get firsthand cutting-edge information, tap on the avatar and follow @衡玉分析师 Cook Night $ETH #美SEC和CFTC加密监管合作

Who would have guessed that the traditionally conservative Wall Street asset management giant would become the largest external shareholder of a Japanese Bitcoin concept stock?

The legendary fund Capital Group, with a management scale exceeding one trillion dollars, recently acquired 11.45% of the shares of the Japanese listed company Metaplanet with a position of nearly 500 million dollars, a move that has shaken the entire traditional financial sector like thunder.

As a "long-distance" asset management institution with a 94-year history, Capital Group has always been grounded in the value investment philosophies of Graham and Buffett, and its style of operation has been so stable that it borders on rigidity. However, now, its senior fund manager Mark Casey has openly stated that he has transformed into a staunch supporter of Bitcoin — from tens of billions to hundreds of billions of dollars in Bitcoin-related asset allocation, the digital asset holdings of this old fund have surged sixfold over the past six years, and its transformation trajectory is astonishing.

Market-called "Japanese version of MicroStrategy" Metaplanet, its core strategy is to incorporate Bitcoin into corporate strategic reserves. This time, Capital Group's purchase of its stock not only avoided the complex operations of directly holding cryptocurrencies in compliance and custody aspects, but also precisely obtained investment exposure that is highly correlated with Bitcoin price fluctuations. This "breaking the circle" layout of traditional financial giants is quietly rewriting the rules of the game for institutional funds participating in the crypto ecosystem.

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A brother from Zhejiang made over 10,000u from an initial capital of 1,000u after getting on the bus. After getting on, this is the essence that the brother from Zhejiang learned!

First, the brother from Zhejiang bought ETH and made 3,000u, plus he had 4,000u in hand.

At this point, the brother asked whether to continue buying ETH or switch to buying STBL?

My advice to the brother is to switch to STB.

In the end, he made a profit of 6,000u.

We went through two steps to layout, first from 1,000u to 4,000u, then from 4,000u to 10,000u.

Let's get on the bus together; the next potential coin for a big increase is being laid out.

If you're interested, let's discuss it in the comments!

Blindly working alone will never bring opportunities; why not follow @衡玉分析师 for night cooking, I will lead you to explore ten-fold potential coins! Top-tier resources! #币安HODLer空投XPL $ETH

Listen up, family! The top nine banks in Europe are about to make big moves!

They are joining forces to launch a compliant euro stablecoin, tightly regulated by the EU's "Crypto Assets Market Regulation"! This is all about seizing the dominance of American stablecoins, allowing Europe to call the shots in the payment sector!

This thing can settle instantly, with fees so low they’re practically negligible, and it allows for 24-hour cross-border transfers. It also supports programmable payments, supply chain optimization, digital asset settlements… the functionalities are off the charts!

Currently, American stablecoins hold a monopoly, and this wave of "de-Americanization" in Europe is opening new doors for retail investors! The first launch is set for the second half of 2026, so keep an eye on it; when it goes live, it’s a chance to profit! Don’t wait until others have made a fortune to regret it; opportunities in the crypto space come and go quickly. This time, with Europe leading the charge, will you join in? Let me know in the comments!

If you want to delve deep into the crypto world but don’t know where to start, and you want to quickly get up to speed on information gaps, click on my profile and follow @衡玉分析师 for the latest news and in-depth analysis! #币安HODLer空投XPL $ETH

Cryptocurrency earthquake! Brother Ma Ji suffers a blood loss of 18.68 million with 149 million in long positions in ETH/PUMP, revealing a "death cross"!

On-chain data shows that Ma Ji, Huang Licheng, suffered an epic liquidation of 149 million USD in ETH and PUMP long positions! Among them, 30,000 ETH was purchased at a high of 4,399 USD, with current unrealized losses reaching 9.92 million USD, while 4.85 billion PUMP plummeted 58% after being built at 0.0073 USD, resulting in unrealized losses of 8.76 million USD. The two major cryptocurrencies have simultaneously broken down, forming a "death cross" pattern, and market panic is rapidly spreading.

It is worth noting that this is Huang Licheng's third major loss this year. At the beginning of the year, an investment of 15.6 million USD in the FRIEND project now remains only 700,000 USD, and in March, he lost over 10 million USD in the BLAST airdrop arbitrage.

This time, the heavy position in Hyperliquid has exposed the risks of his aggressive strategy of "buying more as prices fall"—data shows that Huang Licheng has been continuously increasing his position in PUMP, with holdings exceeding 3% of the market circulation.

The cryptocurrency market is changing rapidly, and even the big players cannot escape the "scythe" of the market. Want to get the latest liquidation warnings and hedging strategies? Follow 【@衡玉分析师 】 Zhu Ye immediately, and let us help you see through the undercurrents of the crypto market! #美SEC和CFTC加密监管合作 $BTC

Attention cryptocurrency enthusiasts!

Tonight until tomorrow morning, a bunch of "nuclear-level" news will bombard us. The coins in hand will either take off or dive; missing out means a bloodbath!

First, let's look at the unemployment data for the week from the U.S. at 20:30. How many people have lost their jobs? Is the economy about to collapse? Next, GDP, consumption, and prices will all converge (still at 20:30). How strong is the U.S. economy? Poor data → lower interest rate expectations → cryptocurrency surges; strong data → interest rate knife hanging overhead → cryptocurrency prices will crash for you to see!

The second half of the night is even harsher! The Fed bigwigs will chat late at night (after 22:00). Will they inject liquidity or tighten the noose? One word can make your account bungee jump! Also at 22:30, natural gas inventory; if energy goes haywire, cryptocurrencies will ride the roller coaster!

Retail investors, don’t be confused! Tonight, the data will strip the Americans down to their underwear, whether the cryptocurrency market will bleed or the bull market will restart depends entirely on this wave! Keep a close eye on the data, listen carefully to the speeches; if you sleep through it, your account will turn green tomorrow and leave you panicking!

Hengyu has been closely monitoring this "data nuclear explosion window". The insiders have already figured out the coded language of the Fed's speeches and the ambush points of data reversal! Last time in the non-farm report, I set up early; brothers who followed me directly doubled their gains!

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Listen up, folks! Trump is going to make big moves next month! Insider information reveals that the 'king' team is quietly arranging a visit to Japan, likely to have a 'historic meeting' with the new Japanese Prime Minister! It's worth noting that Shigeru Ishiba just stepped down; what will the new leader's strategy be? Behind this 'debut performance,' what cards are the U.S. and Japan really holding?

Even more explosive is the 'king's' Asia-Pacific itinerary, which is hitting hard: South Korea APEC, Malaysia ASEAN meetings are all going to be involved! The crypto community knows well—every move by international big shots is intertwined with the lifeline of cryptocurrency!

The itinerary hasn't been officially announced yet, but capital has already caught the scent of blood! Is this wave of operations by the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia a loosening of policies or a tightening of regulations? Every time the 'king' flips the table, the crypto world has to shake three times!

Retail investors, keep a close eye on international trends; are there opportunities for wealth hidden in this undercurrent, or are there landmines buried? Share your strategies in the comments!

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Don't panic, old friends stuck with two coins! Follow these 3 steps to stabilize; getting out of the position isn't that hard

Brothers, today everyone is asking me: "Teacher Hengyu, I bought ETH at 4192, now I'm stuck at 4008, what should I do?" "Those who are liquidated are worse off; half of the principal is left, can it still be recovered?" Today, let's get straight to the point, no fluff.

First, stabilize your mindset - being anxious is useless! ETH dropped from 4192 to 4008, which is just a loss of 184 points, less than a 5% drop, considered 'shallowly stuck' in the crypto circle. If you bought at a high point, selling now means real losses; those who are liquidated should not rush, first heal your wounds; for those who played with leverage, safety of the principal is more important than anything else.

​​Step 1: Hold a light position, look for opportunities to supplement a heavy position.​​ If you only bought 30,000 to 50,000, don't mess around with this little bit; the fundamentals of ETH haven't collapsed - costs are down post-merge, and the ecosystem is still growing, with long-term support at 3800-4000. Hold on, and wait for the next wave of rebound to naturally get out of the position. If you're heavily invested (for example, over 100,000), wait for a stabilization signal (like a volume breakthrough at 4100, or recovering 4150), supplement a bit to average down your cost, don't go all in at once, do it in batches.

​​Step 2: For those who can trade, lower the cost in small waves.​​ Don't always think "wait until it returns to 4192 to sell", that's too passive! When it rebounds to around 4150, first sell 1/3; buy back when it drops to 4000, and keep flipping back and forth, the cost can gradually decrease. Remember, making a profit on the price difference is better than holding on stubbornly, especially in a volatile market; taking small, quick steps is more stable.

​​Step 3: For those who are liquidated, survive first.​​ If you've been liquidated in leverage trading, don't rush to recover your losses! First, use idle money for a small position (like 10% of the principal) to test the waters, and add more when the market moves in your favor. What the market lacks now is not opportunities, but patience.

Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: getting out of a position has never been about "waiting for a rebound"; it's about strategy. Hold lightly, supplement heavily, and trade back and forth; in three to six months, there's a high probability of getting out. Don't scare yourself; ETH hasn't reached the point of being deeply stuck; stay steady, and you can win!

If you feel helpless and confused about trading right now, and want to learn more about crypto-related knowledge and first-hand cutting-edge information, click on the avatar to follow 【@衡玉分析师 煮夜】, and you won't get lost in this round of bull market! #币安HODLer空投XPL $ETH