DsLMacaron

#ETHTreasuryStrategy
$ETH
Chance to hit 4,500 today: high (~65%).
Condition: 15m/1h close above 4,478–4,487 with expanding volume.

Targets after breaking 4,500 (intraday → T+2): 4,498–4,503, then 4,524–4,536, 4,566, 4,600–4,620, and extended 4,574 / 4,620 / 4,685 (Fibo 1.272–1.618 from swing 4,166→4,487).

Main risk: All TFs (1h/4h/D1) RSI >70 → prone to quick pullbacks to 4,445–4,438 or 4,420 before continuation.

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Technical Reading (Detailed)

Structure & Momentum

Trend: Clean uptrend on 1D & 4H (HH/HL). Price above MA50/100/200 in all TFs → trend-following still valid.

Volume: 4H shows a volume surge on breakout; 15m shows volume contraction during consolidation → healthy bull flag setup, ready for another push.

MACD:

1H: bullish cross + rising histogram → supports continuation.

4H: starting to curl up again (re-hook).

RSI: 15m ≈70 (cooling from >80), 1H ≈78, 4H ≈73, D1 ≈84 → strong trend, but easy to trigger shallow pullbacks.

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Key Price Levels

Resistance (near → far)

4,478–4,487 (recent high) → confirmation if closing above here.

4,498–4,503 (front-run of 4.5k + light supply zone).

4,524–4,536 (intraday extension & flag projection).

4,566 → 4,586 (next daily target range).

4,600–4,620 then 4,685 (Fibo ext. 1.272–1.618).

Support (intra → swing)

4,458–4,452 (flag base on 15m).

4,445–4,438 (minor pivot; loss = caution).

4,420 (1H pivot; normal retest but intraday invalidation if 1H closes below).

4,388 (23.6% retrace of swing 4,166→4,487).

4,365 (38.2% retrace + 1H key level).

4,327 / 4,289 (50% & 61.8% retrace; near MA100–200 on 15m/1H).

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Scenarios & Probabilities

A) Break & Go (base-case, ~65%)

15m/1h close ≥4,478–4,487 with volume > 20-bar average → push to 4,498–4,503, then 4,524–4,536.

If momentum holds, extension to 4,566 → 4,600–4,620 within 24–48h.

B) Fakeout then pullback (~25%)

Fails to hold above 4,478/4,487 → wick down to 4,452–4,445 or 4,420 for retest before continuation.

1) BTC — Market Engine

Current Status

15m & 1h: Strong downtrend, price far below MA50/100/200.

Today’s low at ~117,632 is the nearest intraday support.

RSI (15m/1h) extremely oversold (around 10–20) with huge dump volume → possible relief bounce, but as long as price stays under key reclaim levels, bias remains sell-the-rally.

Key Levels (24h)

Support: 118.0–117.6k (wick low & reactive buy zone).

Pivot/Resistance: 119.8k → 121.0k → 121.8–122.3k (gateway to flip intraday trend).

Bullish reclaim only valid if BTC closes & holds >121.8–123.0k.

Implication: Below 121.8k, every bounce is more likely a short opportunity; breaking 117.6k could trigger another fast drop.

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2) SOL — High Beta to BTC

Current Status

15m: Broke down below MA200 (~196.8) → confirmed breakdown, now around 192.

1h: Still above MA200 (1h) at ~181.6, but momentum is negative.

RSI 15m/1h extremely oversold (around 12 & 19) + large red volume spike → prone to short-term consolidation or bounce before next move.

Key Levels (24h)

Support: 190.0 (intraday low) → 186.7 (wick) → 185–183 (4h shelf).

Pivot/Resistance: 196–197 (breakdown area & MA on 1h) → 200–203.

As long as SOL stays below 196, bias = downtrend; reclaim & close >196 = potential bounce to 200–203.

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3) Short Plan — Entry at 194

A. Conservative Approach

Take 50–70% profits at 191.8–192.5 (already hit).

Let the rest run, move stop-loss to 194.2 (above entry but below main pivot at 196).

If BTC breaks <117.6k and SOL closes <190 on 15m:

Add small size (25–30%) on breakdown.

Targets: TP1: 190, TP2: 186.7, TP3: 185–183.

B. Aggressive Approach

Hold full size; set tight SL at 196.5–197 (above pivot zone).

Target ladder: 190 → 186.7 → 185–183.

Note: Extreme oversold RSI = risk of quick bounce; avoid letting profits turn into losses.

C. Exit / Flip Conditions

Close shorts entirely if:

BTC reclaims >119.8k, then >121.0k, AND SOL closes >196 with rising volume.

$SOL #HotJulyPPI

Solana (SOL/USDT) — Deep Technical View

1) Trend & Market Structure

Uptrend intact: Price is well above the 15-min MA50 ≈ 200.6, MA100 ≈ 199.9, and MA200 ≈ 190.8 → short-to-mid trend is bullish.

Fresh breakout: SOL cleared the prior double-top 204.9–205.0 with a large green candle and surging volume → credible breakout, not just a wick.

Breakout zone = new support: 204.9–205.0 is now the first place bulls should defend on any pullback.

2) Momentum & Volume

Momentum expanding: MACD flipped positive and the DIF line is pulling away from the signal → confirms increasing bullish drive.

RSI(6) ~ 77 after the pop: That’s overbought on 15-min, so short, shallow pullbacks or mini-ranges are common before the next leg higher.

Volume quality: The breakout candle shows a clean volume expansion vs. prior bars → healthy confirmation. Watch that follow-through bars don’t immediately contract too much.

3) Key Levels (Intraday)

Supports

205.0–204.5: Breakout retest zone (first line of defense).

200.5–199.5: MA50/MA100 cluster and round-number support.

197–196: Minor swing shelf.

194.1–193.5: Last higher-low area; loss of this risks trend change on 15-min.

Resistances / Upside objectives

210.0: Round number + near-term supply.

211.6: 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the prior leg
(Leg measured 194.15 → 204.96, range = 10.81.
1.618 ext = 204.96 + 0.618×10.81 = 204.96 + 6.68 ≈ 211.64.)

215.8: 2.0 extension (204.96 + 10.81 = 215.77).

> 1.272 extension check: 204.96 + 0.272×10.81 ≈ 207.90, which SOL has essentially tagged during the breakout — consistent with current stall.

4) BTC Coupling (Key to Follow-Through)

BTC just pulled back off 124.47k and is trying to stabilize ~123.6k on your 15-min chart.

For SOL to keep pushing: BTC should hold above 123.0–122.6k.
A BTC dip below 122.6k raises the odds SOL retests 205 → 200–199.

5) Scenarios (Next 6–12 hours)

Base case (bullish continuation)

Setup: Shallow pullback into 205–204.5 that holds, then a fresh push.

Targets: 210.0 → 211.6

$SOL #BTCBreaksATH

$ETH #CPIWatch

Why ETH Rose in the Last 24 Hours

1. Institutional Inflows & Ethereum ETFs

Large inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs, including massive purchases by institutions such as BlackRock — around 150,000 ETH — boosted market sentiment and fueled hopes for a new all-time high (bravenewcoin.com).

Daily ETF inflows reached $1 billion, setting a new record and showing strong institutional interest in ETH

ETFs and treasury vehicles have absorbed up to 1.6% of total ETH supply since June, reducing available supply in the market and supporting higher prices

Companies such as BitMine Immersion Technologies and Sharplink Gaming have made large ETH purchases as part of their accumulation strategy

2. Short Squeeze and Massive Liquidations

The sharp price rally triggered a large short squeeze, forcing traders holding short positions to cover (buy back), which pushed the price even higher.

Short liquidations over the past 24 hours reached between $184 million and $207 million according to data from Coinglass and CryptoRank (beincrypto.com, cryptorank.io).

ETH broke above the $4,200 level — its highest since December 2021 — fueled by this momentum (coindesk.com).

3. Technical and Fundamental Sentiment

From a technical perspective, ETH broke through a key resistance at $4,000 — triggering follow-up buying and opening the way for higher price targets (coindesk.com, beincrypto.com).

Open interest in ETH futures has surged — reflecting strong conviction among major traders in the potential for a continued rally

Ethereum continues to dominate the DeFi sector (over 66%) and stablecoins, with total value locked (TVL) up 32% over the past 30 days — reinforcing the strong fundamentals backing its price

#IsNotManipulation

#CPIWatch

"Futures trading is not a straight road to success. It’s a battlefield of mistakes, losses, and lessons. Every wrong move teaches you something no book can. The more you fall, the sharper your instincts become. Great traders aren’t born — they’re forged in the fire of their own failures. Keep learning. Keep fighting. Your breakthrough is built on the ashes of your setbacks."

$ETH $BTC $SOL #ETH #BTC #SOL #PENGU