#ETHTreasuryStrategy
Chance to hit 4,500 today: high (~65%).
Condition: 15m/1h close above 4,478–4,487 with expanding volume.
Targets after breaking 4,500 (intraday → T+2): 4,498–4,503, then 4,524–4,536, 4,566, 4,600–4,620, and extended 4,574 / 4,620 / 4,685 (Fibo 1.272–1.618 from swing 4,166→4,487).
Main risk: All TFs (1h/4h/D1) RSI >70 → prone to quick pullbacks to 4,445–4,438 or 4,420 before continuation.
---
Technical Reading (Detailed)
Structure & Momentum
Trend: Clean uptrend on 1D & 4H (HH/HL). Price above MA50/100/200 in all TFs → trend-following still valid.
Volume: 4H shows a volume surge on breakout; 15m shows volume contraction during consolidation → healthy bull flag setup, ready for another push.
MACD:
1H: bullish cross + rising histogram → supports continuation.
4H: starting to curl up again (re-hook).
RSI: 15m ≈70 (cooling from >80), 1H ≈78, 4H ≈73, D1 ≈84 → strong trend, but easy to trigger shallow pullbacks.
---
Key Price Levels
Resistance (near → far)
4,478–4,487 (recent high) → confirmation if closing above here.
4,498–4,503 (front-run of 4.5k + light supply zone).
4,524–4,536 (intraday extension & flag projection).
4,566 → 4,586 (next daily target range).
4,600–4,620 then 4,685 (Fibo ext. 1.272–1.618).
Support (intra → swing)
4,458–4,452 (flag base on 15m).
4,445–4,438 (minor pivot; loss = caution).
4,420 (1H pivot; normal retest but intraday invalidation if 1H closes below).
4,388 (23.6% retrace of swing 4,166→4,487).
4,365 (38.2% retrace + 1H key level).
4,327 / 4,289 (50% & 61.8% retrace; near MA100–200 on 15m/1H).
---
Scenarios & Probabilities
A) Break & Go (base-case, ~65%)
15m/1h close ≥4,478–4,487 with volume > 20-bar average → push to 4,498–4,503, then 4,524–4,536.
If momentum holds, extension to 4,566 → 4,600–4,620 within 24–48h.
B) Fakeout then pullback (~25%)
Fails to hold above 4,478/4,487 → wick down to 4,452–4,445 or 4,420 for retest before continuation.
