Solana (SOL/USDT) — Deep Technical View
1) Trend & Market Structure
Uptrend intact: Price is well above the 15-min MA50 ≈ 200.6, MA100 ≈ 199.9, and MA200 ≈ 190.8 → short-to-mid trend is bullish.
Fresh breakout: SOL cleared the prior double-top 204.9–205.0 with a large green candle and surging volume → credible breakout, not just a wick.
Breakout zone = new support: 204.9–205.0 is now the first place bulls should defend on any pullback.
2) Momentum & Volume
Momentum expanding: MACD flipped positive and the DIF line is pulling away from the signal → confirms increasing bullish drive.
RSI(6) ~ 77 after the pop: That’s overbought on 15-min, so short, shallow pullbacks or mini-ranges are common before the next leg higher.
Volume quality: The breakout candle shows a clean volume expansion vs. prior bars → healthy confirmation. Watch that follow-through bars don’t immediately contract too much.
3) Key Levels (Intraday)
Supports
205.0–204.5: Breakout retest zone (first line of defense).
200.5–199.5: MA50/MA100 cluster and round-number support.
197–196: Minor swing shelf.
194.1–193.5: Last higher-low area; loss of this risks trend change on 15-min.
Resistances / Upside objectives
210.0: Round number + near-term supply.
211.6: 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the prior leg
(Leg measured 194.15 → 204.96, range = 10.81.
1.618 ext = 204.96 + 0.618×10.81 = 204.96 + 6.68 ≈ 211.64.)
215.8: 2.0 extension (204.96 + 10.81 = 215.77).
> 1.272 extension check: 204.96 + 0.272×10.81 ≈ 207.90, which SOL has essentially tagged during the breakout — consistent with current stall.
4) BTC Coupling (Key to Follow-Through)
BTC just pulled back off 124.47k and is trying to stabilize ~123.6k on your 15-min chart.
For SOL to keep pushing: BTC should hold above 123.0–122.6k.
A BTC dip below 122.6k raises the odds SOL retests 205 → 200–199.
5) Scenarios (Next 6–12 hours)
Base case (bullish continuation)
Setup: Shallow pullback into 205–204.5 that holds, then a fresh push.
Targets: 210.0 → 211.6
