1) BTC — Market Engine
Current Status
15m & 1h: Strong downtrend, price far below MA50/100/200.
Today’s low at ~117,632 is the nearest intraday support.
RSI (15m/1h) extremely oversold (around 10–20) with huge dump volume → possible relief bounce, but as long as price stays under key reclaim levels, bias remains sell-the-rally.
Key Levels (24h)
Support: 118.0–117.6k (wick low & reactive buy zone).
Pivot/Resistance: 119.8k → 121.0k → 121.8–122.3k (gateway to flip intraday trend).
Bullish reclaim only valid if BTC closes & holds >121.8–123.0k.
Implication: Below 121.8k, every bounce is more likely a short opportunity; breaking 117.6k could trigger another fast drop.
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Current Status
15m: Broke down below MA200 (~196.8) → confirmed breakdown, now around 192.
1h: Still above MA200 (1h) at ~181.6, but momentum is negative.
RSI 15m/1h extremely oversold (around 12 & 19) + large red volume spike → prone to short-term consolidation or bounce before next move.
Key Levels (24h)
Support: 190.0 (intraday low) → 186.7 (wick) → 185–183 (4h shelf).
Pivot/Resistance: 196–197 (breakdown area & MA on 1h) → 200–203.
As long as SOL stays below 196, bias = downtrend; reclaim & close >196 = potential bounce to 200–203.
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3) Short Plan — Entry at 194
A. Conservative Approach
Take 50–70% profits at 191.8–192.5 (already hit).
Let the rest run, move stop-loss to 194.2 (above entry but below main pivot at 196).
If BTC breaks <117.6k and SOL closes <190 on 15m:
Add small size (25–30%) on breakdown.
Targets: TP1: 190, TP2: 186.7, TP3: 185–183.
B. Aggressive Approach
Hold full size; set tight SL at 196.5–197 (above pivot zone).
Target ladder: 190 → 186.7 → 185–183.
Note: Extreme oversold RSI = risk of quick bounce; avoid letting profits turn into losses.
C. Exit / Flip Conditions
Close shorts entirely if:
BTC reclaims >119.8k, then >121.0k, AND SOL closes >196 with rising volume.
