- Jobless claims - Nonfarm payrolls - Consumer Price Index & Producer Price Index - Retail sales, factory orders, housing starts, trade data - Employment Trends Index
The United States has entered its first government shutdown since 2019 after budget negotiations collapsed in Congress. Thousands of federal employees have been furloughed, and a wide range of public services are coming to a standstill as political gridlock deepens.
Amid this fiscal uncertainty, Bitcoin is showing resilience. The leading cryptocurrency rallied near $114,000, with investors increasingly viewing it as a hedge against traditional financial instability. While the shutdown adds pressure on the U.S. economy, it also highlights Bitcoin’s growing role as an alternative asset during times of systemic stress.
TRUMP ANNOUNCES 25% TARIFF ON IMPORTED HEAVY TRUCKS OCT 1
Trump has also announced 100% tariff on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product, unless the company is building pharmaceutical manufacturing in the US.
• Inflation has risen recently, still somewhat elevated, mainly due to tariff-driven goods prices. • Job gains have slowed significantly, labor market no longer solid, and payroll growth running below breakeven. • Despite near-term inflation, long-term expectations remain consistent with 2% target. • Tariff effects on inflation uncertain, but base case is short-lived – though price pressures may continue this year and next. • No broad support for a 50 bps cut; Fed started with 25 bps. • Powell said Fed doesn’t feel the need to move quickly on rates; policy will remain data-dependent, meeting by meeting. • Risks of higher inflation are lower than in April. • Economy is “not bad,” banking data (BLS) still reliable. • Powell noted a quarter-point cut may not make a huge difference, but almost all members supported it.
⸻
📊 Conclusion: Fed has turned cautious but not aggressive. Near-term volatility possible, but medium-term outlook is mildly bullish for risk assets (crypto, gold, stocks) as easing begins while inflation is expected to trend lower. #BNBBreaksATH #FedRateCutExpectations