猬哥说趋势

刷到特朗普加征关税的新闻，这哥们儿吓得魂儿都飞了，手忙脚乱把手里的主流加密资产在 2.8 万刀急着变现，结果一周后直接弹回 3.2 万！他拍大腿拍到现在还喊疼，逢人就说 “当时脑子被门夹了，纯纯大冤种”！
现在更刺激的来了 11 月 5 日，最高法院要宣判这波关税合不合法，1.4 万亿退赔危机就悬在头顶！好多铁子慌得不行，私信问我 “这是不是加密圈要凉了”？别急，听老炮儿给你扒透核心逻辑，这事儿不仅不可怕，甚至可能藏着机会！
先亮我的核心观点：关税案就是场 “纸老虎” 式大考，加密圈早不是靠消息涨跌的蛮荒时代了，机构托底 + 监管清晰，咱们稳得住！
第一，加密圈韧性比美股还刚！4 月那波关税冲击，主流加密资产也就跌了 5%，但美股直接崩了 10%！为啥差距这么大？因为现在市场格局早变了 ——ETF 和 MicroStrategy 这类大企业，已经手握 10% 的主流加密资产，机构托底这事儿可不是空话，相当于给市场装了个 “安全气囊”，就算有短期波动，也跌不到哪儿去！
第二，败诉反而可能是大利好！这话听着反常识，但咱算笔账：美国企业已经多付了 2100 亿关税，要是法院判关税无效，这笔钱退回去，企业成本直接下降，全球供应链也能稳下来。到时候那些闲置资金，肯定要找高收益渠道，加密资产作为优质风险资产，绝对是资金眼里的香饽饽！
第三，就算胜诉也别怕！退一万步说，真要是维持关税，历史数据早就证明了 加密圈的跌幅肯定比美股小。更关键的是，现在监管框架越来越清晰，香港、美国都出台了新规，再也不会像 2020 年那样瞎跌乱涨，市场越来越规范，长期来看反而是好事！
这里给新手铁子们 3 条血泪干货，听懂能少走 3 年弯路，别再犯小李的错！① 别当 “消息韭菜”！宏观新闻落地前，币价波动大多是情绪在瞎折腾，急着变现就是给别人送钱！小李的教训还不够深刻吗？② 盯紧机构动向！ETF 资金流入、大企业增持这些才是真信号，比那些捕风捉影的新闻靠谱 100 倍！跟着机构走，才能少踩坑！③ 仓位必须控在三成内！不管判决结果咋样，只用闲钱投资，最多放 30% 的仓位，就算短期有波动，也能扛住，不至于慌到割在地板上！
家人们，现在的加密圈，拼的不是谁消息灵，而是谁能看透底层逻辑、稳住心态！这波关税案就是块 “试金石”，淘汰的是追涨杀跌的韭菜，留下的是懂逻辑、有耐心的赢家！
谁还想当被消息牵着走的冤种？谁不想在大行情里稳稳吃肉？关注我！
#美国加征关税 #鲍威尔发言 #美联储重启降息步伐

谁懂啊！十年前上海阿姨甩卖 850 万房产，all in 27 公斤黄金的操作，当年被骂 “疯了”，现在看简直是神预判 今年房子市值跌到 650 万，阿姨随手卖 8 公斤黄金就套现 664 万，不仅把原房买回来，还富余出钱翻新，直接躺平实现 “不上班自由”！
这事儿搁加密市场，简直是大型 “悔不当初” 现场：有人 2017 年听说 BTC 却觉得 “是骗局”，眼睁睁看着它从几千美元冲到六万；有人去年追着热门山寨币梭哈，结果项目跑路，本金直接蒸发；还有人在熊市慌不择路割肉主流币，转头就错过今年的反弹行情 —— 你看，不管是黄金、房产还是加密资产，赚钱从来不是靠运气，而是看懂了 “资产轮动” 的底层逻辑！
作为在加密市场摸爬滚打 8 年的老玩家，今天掏心窝子说点干货：没有永远涨的资产，只有抓得住的周期，不同资产的 “脾气” 完全不同，摸透了才能少踩坑：
黄金：千年硬通货的 “抗通胀神器”全球经济乱、货币贬值的时候，黄金永远是 “避风港” 这几年全球不确定性拉满，金价从每克 300 多涨到 830，阿姨的操作就是吃准了 “乱世藏金” 的规律。就像加密市场里的主流币，熊市里跌得比山寨币少，牛市里虽涨得慢但稳，是新手的 “压舱石”。
房产：周期之王的 “地域选择题”房子不是永远涨，政策、地段、市场热度随便一个变量就能改写走势 这几年不少城市房价回调，就是最好的证明。类比加密市场的山寨币，有的项目靠概念炒作短期暴涨，但没有实际价值支撑，跌起来比谁都狠，跟风追涨无异于赌运气。
加密资产：高波动里的 “趋势猎手”很多人觉得加密市场 “全是泡沫”，但不可否认，它是近十年涨幅最惊人的资产之一。关键不是 “要不要买”，而是 “怎么买”：早期布局有实际应用的主流币，就像阿姨当年囤黄金；熊市里沉住气不割肉，牛市里不贪多及时止盈，这才是加密市场的 “轮动密码”。
我的核心观点从来没变：财富不是追着热门跑，而是学会 “顺周期布局” 。阿姨的厉害之处，不是敢卖房买金，而是在大家都迷信 “房子永远涨” 的狂热期保持冷静，看懂了资产轮动的规律。
放在加密市场里也是一个道理：新手别一上来就跟风梭哈不知名项目，先搞懂主流币和山寨币的区别，摸透熊市囤 “硬资产”、牛市择机兑现的逻辑；老玩家也别迷信单一标的，要像阿姨调配黄金和房产一样，做好资产配置，才能在市场震荡中稳赚不赔。
现在加密市场又到了关键节点，很多人迷茫不知道该囤什么、该什么时候入手，怕踩坑、怕错过机会 这不就是当年犹豫要不要买黄金、要不要碰 BTC 的翻版吗？关注我！
#美股2026预测 #鲍威尔发言 #美国加征关税

4 years ago, I stared at the remaining 500,000 in my account, my palms sweating as if I could squeeze out water. Following the market blindly with short-term crypto trading, chasing highs and lows like a headless chicken, I was on the verge of losing my last bit of principal, cursing myself in the middle of the night: this is not investment, it's clearly giving money to the market!
The '10-minute trading method' forced out in a dire situation unexpectedly became my confidence for a comeback. Now the crypto market is stuck in a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin (BTC) repeatedly bouncing between 100,000 and 110,000; new traders need to be cautious lest they get trapped. This trick can help everyone avoid pitfalls, and today I'll share the core logic from my 4 years of practical experience, all of which is directly usable practical knowledge!

“Bro! The Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates! Should I scramble to raise money to go all in overnight?” Seeing him so anxious, it's just like a lady afraid of missing a sale, worried about entering late and missing out, yet also afraid of getting burned as soon as she steps in!
Honestly, those in the know understand that this rate cut by the Federal Reserve is purely a 'drama queen operation'; in my opinion, it doesn't even count as 'monetary easing', at most it's just handing the market a bottle of mineral water—enough to keep it from dying of thirst, but definitely not solving the urgent issues!
Let me share some insider info: the market is hoping the Federal Reserve will generously inject money to save the economy, but they only plan to cut by 25 basis points, which is as stingy as a guy who only buys mineral water on a date. Why so hesitant? It's all due to the aftereffects of the last aggressive monetary easing! Previously, a flurry of actions sent the dollar soaring and plummeting, and inflation shot up to the ceiling, so they are scared this time! The internal debate is more chaotic than a wet market: one side is shouting for a '50 basis point cut to save the economy', while the other is anxious to 'prevent inflation from rebounding'. In the end, they all took a step back to compromise, and even the statement was written ambiguously, fearing they might get slapped in the face by the market for being too assertive.

I've been watching the market for 10 years and have seen too many beginners rush into the market with the mindset of 'finding insider information and chasing hot trends,' ultimately losing their principal. It wasn't until last year when I met the trading master Xiao Yu from the post-00s that I became more certain: top-tier trading is never about 'gambling on luck,' but about mastering 'price + trading volume' to the extreme!
This young man went from 2000 yuan to 10 million in two years, without staying up late to watch the market until dawn. He analyzes 10 candlestick charts every day and has summarized 4 'beginner-friendly price-volume patterns' that anyone can learn with their eyes closed. Now his monthly earnings are stable (those who understand know it's 100 times better than blindly hustling).

I have been watching the market for 10 years and have seen too many beginners rush into the market with the mentality of 'looking for insider information and chasing hot trends', only to end up losing their capital completely. It wasn't until I met the trading master Xiao Yu, who was born after 2000, last year that I became more certain: top trading is never about 'gambling on luck', but about playing 'price + volume' to the extreme!
This young man turned 2000 yuan into 10 million in two years without staying up late to watch the market until dawn. He analyzes just 10 candlestick charts every day and has summed up 4 'rules of price and volume that beginners can learn with their eyes closed'. Now his monthly earnings are stable (those who understand know that it's 100 times better than blindly struggling).

A few days ago, a friend urgently contacted me, saying, "The Federal Reserve is going to investigate stablecoins, so I'm selling first, afraid it will turn into worthless paper!" As a result, the next day BTC slowly rose a bit, and he slapped his thigh in regret. This really amused me; it's too easy for newbies to react impulsively to overseas news!
In fact, the three messages that have been going viral recently are neither a "sell signal" nor a "gamble order". When you break them down, they are all solid information. Today, with my 5 years of experience in the crypto market, I'll clarify this for everyone. Don't make the same mistake as my friend of taking every rumor at face value!

When I first entered the market, I also made a mistake: seeing others show screenshots of 'all-in ETH earning 2 times', I impulsively threw in all my 1000U. As a result, when the market pulled back, I directly lost down to 600U. Looking back now, this is not investing at all. This is just sending a 'chives gift package' to the market!
Later, I realized: the biggest misconception for beginners is not the lack of opportunities, but the lack of patience for 'delayed gratification'. The crypto circle never lacks for doubling markets, but 90% of people die from 'hurrying to enter, hurrying to increase positions, hurrying to double'. You think you are bottom-fishing, but you are actually handing over to seasoned players; you think you are one step ahead, but you are actually stepping into a pit first!

Family, who understands! A few days ago, my childhood friend sent me a screenshot of the chain late at night, his voice trembling with excitement in the voice message: 'Bro! An ancient whale dumped 290 million to sweep ETH, I'm ready to go all in with 5x leverage, this time I must get rich!'
When I opened the screenshot, I was shocked! This guy actually transferred the funds to the trading platform, just one step away from clicking 'confirm'! Luckily, I held his hand, otherwise he might be working hard to pay off debts now.
As an old hand in the crypto world with 8 years of experience, I must thoroughly analyze this matter today. Newbie friends, quickly take note, don't be led astray by 'hundred million operations' and end up being the chives!

Who hasn't experienced sleepless nights after a high-stakes gamble? A friend back then invested 50,000 as capital to dive into the crypto world, staring at the K-line every day shouting 'Go for it', wishing to throw all his money in to double it. As a result, after half a year, his account shrank to 20,000, and he even had to struggle with whether to add pearls to his milk tea. As an experienced crypto analyst with 8 years of hands-on experience, I pushed him to switch to a 'not greedy' strategy, and in one year, his account skyrocketed to 200,000. Today, I want to share from the bottom of my heart: making big money in crypto is not about betting on a single surge, but about keeping the 'no loss' bottom line, especially in this volatile market, which is practically a 'money printing welfare period' for beginners!

As a seasoned veteran who has monitored the crypto space for 8 years, I must speak the truth today: those AI coins that drive beginners crazy are not a 'technological trend' but rather a financial game that changes the packaging without changing the content! How many people rush in with the fantasy of 'betting on the future of AI' only to be cut cleanly by the scythe? This operation is almost a copy-paste of the DeFi 'wealth myth' and NFT 'digital collectible craze' from a few years ago!
First, let me share some key insights: to determine if an AI coin is legitimate, I have summarized two 'killer' criteria that beginners can directly apply! First, check the code activity: those white papers that boast more than science fiction, claiming to 'master core computing power' and 'break through model bottlenecks,' but the code repository hasn't been updated for six months, are 100% air projects! I've seen the most outrageous AI coin, where the white paper listed over 20 technical innovations, but the code repository only had the initial 3 lines of basic code. This isn't project development; it's clearly a scam to write novels and defraud money! Second, examine the actual circulating supply: don't be fooled by market caps in the tens of billions; many so-called 'popular AI coins' have less than 10% of their total issuance available for free trading. The so-called 'institutional entry' is mostly old players changing their disguises to stage a play, pulling a wave and then running, leaving beginners standing guard on the mountain top.

Family, who understands! Every day I can see posts like 'Invest 5000 and lose it all in half a month, crying while leaving the market.' Even through the screen, you can feel that kind of despair. But to be honest, in the crypto world, small capital doesn't lose money; it loses the understanding of the fundamental logic that 'staying alive is more important than getting rich quickly'!
As someone who has been in the crypto space for 5 years, I've seen too many people rush in with the fantasy of 'turning it around overnight,' only to be crushed by the volatility. I've also seen my cousin, who is a tough guy, turn an initial fund of 600 into 28,000. The key is just two words: don't be greedy!

Last night at 1 AM, my phone vibrated so much I thought there was an earthquake. A complaining friend sent a message: '00:35 Powell is speaking! I've set 3 alarms, if he disappoints, I'm going all in on mainstream crypto assets, this time it must double!'
I directly bombarded with a voice message: 'Did you forget December last year? The same script, you stayed up until 2 AM, chased the high and got stuck for 3 days losing 5,000 U, crying and asking me who was the one to cut losses?!'
This guy is not an isolated case. Now in the crypto market, half of the retail investors are staying up waiting for Powell to 'hint at rate cuts', while the other half are spreading rumors of '25 basis point cuts in October and December', treating these predictions like divine orders. But as an analyst with 8 years of experience, I have to say something heart-wrenching: the Fed's tactics haven't changed in 8 years; it's essentially 'expectation manipulation'!

Last Wednesday night, I was woken up by a frantic call from Xiao Lin, and as soon as I answered, I heard him crying, 'Brother, I lost 200,000 in the bull market, and now I can't even afford the hot pot base!' I was shocked; three months ago, this guy was posting screenshots of his holdings in the friend circle with the caption 'I'll switch to a BBA after another surge.' How did he go from 'prospective car owner' to 'debtor'?
After chatting, I realized that the pit he fell into was actually the 'death three consecutive losses' that 90% of newbies will encounter in a bull market! What’s more frustrating is that I had already warned about these traps in the community, but he was so focused on the 'doubling myth' that he didn't pay attention at all. Today, I'll thoroughly expose the main tricks of this bull market and share my exclusive tips to avoid pitfalls, which will help you at least protect 80% of your capital!

Family, who understands! Last week I was listening to my friend Xiao Wang lamenting: he lost 3000U buying shanzhai coins, and even had to struggle over whether to add pearls to his milk tea; this week he directly sent me a red envelope, following my method to focus on mainstream coins and grab small airdrops, and surprisingly recovered over 200 U!
Actually, the crypto world is not a casino. 90% of new investors lose money because of 'blindly messing around': chasing unknown small coins, listening to rumors to go all-in, and lacking discipline in scoring... As a seasoned crypto analyst who has been monitoring for 3 years and has fallen into numerous traps, today I’m giving heartfelt practical tips to newcomers, with no nonsense, so you can apply it right away after watching!

Who understands this? Every time I come across comments like 'The crypto market = a casino, making money relies entirely on luck,' I can't help but laugh out loud. If it really depended on luck, I should have packed up and left when I first stumbled (those who know, know, my account directly shrank by half)!
At first, I entered the market with $1800, going from a 'greenhorn' chasing highs and lows, to now my account steadily surpassing $60,000. I have come to understand a truth: this industry is not about gambling on size, it's about the 'stability' principle. Compared to blindly guessing ups and downs, finding the right rhythm and sticking to the discipline is the core of how ordinary people can make money in the long run.

As a seasoned crypto analyst who has been through ups and downs for 5 years and encountered countless pitfalls, let me explain in plain language to newbies: the truth behind why altcoins can't rise is not 'lack of funds', but rather that you are still viewing the current market with the outdated perspective of 2021!
Stop comforting yourself with 'the funds will come and then it will rise'! The core reason why altcoins can't rise boils down to two painful facts:
First, the 'air coins' without innovation have long been disregarded! The era of 'drawing a pie and spinning a story to take off' in 2021 is already an old tale! Nowadays, small coins either copy white papers or have teams hiding behind the scenes without showing their faces, and there isn't even a legitimate business operation. They neither solve real problems nor have a stable user base, so who would be willing to invest real money? After all, today's investors are no longer the gullible ones who 'dig into their pockets just for a story'!

The longer you stay in the circle, the more you realize that those K-line fluctuations that make you anxious at midnight are not due to the main force "losing money in a gamble," but rather a carefully designed "selection game". When you panic, you sell; when you are greedy, you chase, and in the end, you become a little retail investor who is effectively "providing fuel" to the market. ​
Many beginners often ask, "How can we distinguish between washing plates and delivering goods?" In fact, there's no need to memorize complex indicators. I have summarized two "instant recognition" criteria based on 5 years of practical experience, explained in simple terms:​
1. Washing plates: The main force is "persuading the glass-hearted to exit," not really trying to crash the market!​

In 2016, I entered the cryptocurrency world with 20,000 hard-earned money, thinking I could achieve 'milk tea freedom' through digital assets. However, two months later, my principal shrank to just the fees I had to pay the platform. This wave of 'black opening' completely soaked me. When I stared at my account at midnight and couldn't sleep, I didn't even have the strength to curse.
Who would have thought, after eight years of hard work, that the 'small investor' who lost so much back then and questioned life now has an extra zero in their account. Don't ask me if I have insider information; I relied entirely on the lessons learned from those losses to create a survival guide that ordinary people can follow. Today, I will share my heart with you; if beginners follow this, they will avoid detours and just make profits!

As someone who has been in the crypto scene for 8 years, I've seen too many beginners doubt their lives right after entering. Clearly following the 'masters', why do others make money while I lose my principal? Don't rush to blame bad luck; today, I'm going to share 6 common pitfalls that newbies fall into, all lessons learned the hard way with my own money. Understand these and you can lose 80% less!
1. Relying on 'feelings' to trade cryptocurrencies? It's better to put a 'brake' on your account.
The most fatal mistake for beginners: 'I think this coin is going to skyrocket' 'A friend said it can double'! Please, the crypto market isn't about guessing sizes; entering based on intuition is no different from running naked!