思路jason
Building in《归零大学》|独立交易员 | vibe trading方向产品 | 推特:@ctrlztt
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《BTC still has a lot of room to go before it reaches its peak》
Welcome to the hiddenwhales community~
Disclaimer: The following content is only a sharing of personal subjective opinions and does not constitute any investment advice.
Community projects: quantitative trading research and development, AI BOT research and development
The previous article made a relatively concise analysis of BTC's technical aspects. This article discusses two issues from a market perspective.
1: Has this round of BTC bull market ended? What data signals can be used to determine whether the correction has stopped?
2: Does insufficient liquidity mean the end of the bull market?
Conclusion: Setting a new all-time high does not mean the end of BTC. The current bull market of BTC is far from over and is currently in a secondary correction within the main trend.
Disclaimer: The following content is only a sharing of personal subjective opinions and does not constitute any investment advice.
Community projects: quantitative trading research and development, AI BOT research and development
The previous article made a relatively concise analysis of BTC's technical aspects. This article discusses two issues from a market perspective.
1: Has this round of BTC bull market ended? What data signals can be used to determine whether the correction has stopped?
2: Does insufficient liquidity mean the end of the bull market?
Conclusion: Setting a new all-time high does not mean the end of BTC. The current bull market of BTC is far from over and is currently in a secondary correction within the main trend.
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Currently, there are no signs of stopping, and no reversal signals are visible; the trend continues. However, pay attention to the USDT market share; this wave is ending, and there is still a good opportunity for a pullback to add positions.
This article is sponsored by Zscope
Zscope: Enabling anyone to become their own crypto analyst.
BTC has once again reached an ATH. Like the ATH earlier this year, it is difficult to make technical judgments at historical highs because there are no references. How much space is left above can only be viewed from the perspective of on-chain indicators.
Question 1: Is the current market value of BTC severely overestimated?
Conclusion: The bubble is not extreme enough to be called very extreme; without being very extreme, it cannot be said to be severely overestimated. If it is not severely overestimated, it cannot be said to have peaked; we must revert to the real value.
Zscope: Enabling anyone to become their own crypto analyst.
BTC has once again reached an ATH. Like the ATH earlier this year, it is difficult to make technical judgments at historical highs because there are no references. How much space is left above can only be viewed from the perspective of on-chain indicators.
Question 1: Is the current market value of BTC severely overestimated?
Conclusion: The bubble is not extreme enough to be called very extreme; without being very extreme, it cannot be said to be severely overestimated. If it is not severely overestimated, it cannot be said to have peaked; we must revert to the real value.
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Assuming QE triggers an altcoin season in 2027, what direction can we layout for next year?
Editing and Typesetting: Jason
Host: Little Sheep
Authors: Jason (@ctrlztt), Mountain River (@Danielkketh), Old Xu (@EasymoneyZOO)
Introduction: Those who say this round does not have a altcoin season are most likely the same group that claimed Ethereum would fail in early 2025. When the market drops, they shout that it’s the end, but when it really comes, they have another narrative. Anyway, 'There will always be great scholars to debate for me.' I often hear friends debating whether we are at the tail end of a bull market or the beginning of a bear market? In fact, regardless of the angle, the market conditions from 2023 to now do not fit any characteristics of a bull market. It can be called a 'vibe bull,' and some KOLs define it as a 'non-typical bull market' or a 'BTC independent bull market.' I do not agree that the bull market has ended because, in my view, the bull market has never really started. Assuming there will truly be expectations of QE after 2027, what sectors can we layout in advance in some 'opportunity pits' in 2026? Has the crypto space really entered an era of narrative scarcity? Is there really no altcoin season anymore? In this issue, we will discuss this topic.
Host: Little Sheep
Authors: Jason (@ctrlztt), Mountain River (@Danielkketh), Old Xu (@EasymoneyZOO)
Introduction: Those who say this round does not have a altcoin season are most likely the same group that claimed Ethereum would fail in early 2025. When the market drops, they shout that it’s the end, but when it really comes, they have another narrative. Anyway, 'There will always be great scholars to debate for me.' I often hear friends debating whether we are at the tail end of a bull market or the beginning of a bear market? In fact, regardless of the angle, the market conditions from 2023 to now do not fit any characteristics of a bull market. It can be called a 'vibe bull,' and some KOLs define it as a 'non-typical bull market' or a 'BTC independent bull market.' I do not agree that the bull market has ended because, in my view, the bull market has never really started. Assuming there will truly be expectations of QE after 2027, what sectors can we layout in advance in some 'opportunity pits' in 2026? Has the crypto space really entered an era of narrative scarcity? Is there really no altcoin season anymore? In this issue, we will discuss this topic.
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PrepDex and Prediction Market Column
Host: @zoey171670
Edited and formatted by: Jason
Recording and editing: Jason
Authors: Teacher Shanhe, Lao Xu (Jack), Jason
Every year, the crypto market has a dominant narrative or star project. If last year it was pump.fun, the on-chain memecoin, then this year it's undoubtedly HyperLiquid. In an interview, CZ mentioned he had the opportunity to invest in HyperLiquid, but missed it because his alarm didn't go off and he overslept. This project later became the undisputed leader in the Perp DEX sector, valued at tens of billions of dollars, and dubbed the company with the highest per capita income on Earth. CZ joked, "This is the most expensive project I've ever missed by oversleeping." Now, Perp DEX's trading volume accounts for half of the total DEX volume. Meanwhile, another sector—Prediction Markets—has gained fame for accurately predicting the US election, even making it onto South Park. Are these two top-tier narratives merely short-term hype or do they possess value investing potential? In this episode, we'll discuss these stories with three friends.
Edited and formatted by: Jason
Recording and editing: Jason
Authors: Teacher Shanhe, Lao Xu (Jack), Jason
Every year, the crypto market has a dominant narrative or star project. If last year it was pump.fun, the on-chain memecoin, then this year it's undoubtedly HyperLiquid. In an interview, CZ mentioned he had the opportunity to invest in HyperLiquid, but missed it because his alarm didn't go off and he overslept. This project later became the undisputed leader in the Perp DEX sector, valued at tens of billions of dollars, and dubbed the company with the highest per capita income on Earth. CZ joked, "This is the most expensive project I've ever missed by oversleeping." Now, Perp DEX's trading volume accounts for half of the total DEX volume. Meanwhile, another sector—Prediction Markets—has gained fame for accurately predicting the US election, even making it onto South Park. Are these two top-tier narratives merely short-term hype or do they possess value investing potential? In this episode, we'll discuss these stories with three friends.
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2026 Expectations Based on Macroeconomic and Political Games
Editor: Jason
Layout: Jason
Author: Jason, Old Xu (jack)
Update Date: 2025/11/4 (Note the update time, for the short-term market part)
Old Xu Q1: What is your view on the market for the last quarter of 2025?
Jason:
Regarding the earnings reports of the seven tech sisters in the US stock market this week, I believe the correlation with the crypto market is not significant. My view has always been that in a game of existing stocks, with liquidity not being abundant, the correlation between the US stock market and crypto is not a constant value. The premise of macro liquidity is very important; for example, in the context of large QE, when both share the same narrative, the two markets will exhibit a high positive correlation, whereas in a context of liquidity shortage, the two markets are essentially draining each other.
Layout: Jason
Author: Jason, Old Xu (jack)
Update Date: 2025/11/4 (Note the update time, for the short-term market part)
Old Xu Q1: What is your view on the market for the last quarter of 2025?
Jason:
Regarding the earnings reports of the seven tech sisters in the US stock market this week, I believe the correlation with the crypto market is not significant. My view has always been that in a game of existing stocks, with liquidity not being abundant, the correlation between the US stock market and crypto is not a constant value. The premise of macro liquidity is very important; for example, in the context of large QE, when both share the same narrative, the two markets will exhibit a high positive correlation, whereas in a context of liquidity shortage, the two markets are essentially draining each other.
周一行情复盘会，市场舆论共识：要出大方向。近期有什么需要关注的事件与数据？技术面的走势如何？欢迎收听！
End
49 m 40 s
32
上周eth分析为何如此精准？复盘分析逻辑与后续走势观点。地缘冲突下加密何去何从？欢迎收听！
End
01 h 03 m 46 s
36
🎙️ 《ATH套牢队》第十期6/3
End
59 m 52 s
165
《ATH套牢队》第九期。近期一二级市场核心热点叙事分享，未来重要事件关注，大v推文分享与解读
End
08 m 22 s
34
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I have never missed the market share of USDT. I often mention this data. It has become one of the bases for my decision-making.
Figure 1
The current market share price trend, swinghigh continues to decrease, and swinglow forms horizontal support. Although the horizontal structure has not been broken, the oblique structure has been broken. It can be summarized as: breaking the demand line but rebounding without setting a new high, this is a trend reversal signal.
Figure 2
Detailed signal
A clear engulfing signal with volume appears at the oblique supply line. Generally speaking, the K-line pattern that appears at the key position is extremely valuable for reference and is regarded as an intervention signal. Two buffs are also stacked, RSI overbought divergence + right side MACD dead cross filtering.
In the short term, the USDT market share callback will test the horizontal support again. In the medium term, the horizontal support breakthrough continues to go down, so the corresponding other risk targets are short-term bullish (monthly and weekly level) and medium-term bullish (half-year level). #美SEC加密圆桌会议
Figure 1
The current market share price trend, swinghigh continues to decrease, and swinglow forms horizontal support. Although the horizontal structure has not been broken, the oblique structure has been broken. It can be summarized as: breaking the demand line but rebounding without setting a new high, this is a trend reversal signal.
Figure 2
Detailed signal
A clear engulfing signal with volume appears at the oblique supply line. Generally speaking, the K-line pattern that appears at the key position is extremely valuable for reference and is regarded as an intervention signal. Two buffs are also stacked, RSI overbought divergence + right side MACD dead cross filtering.
In the short term, the USDT market share callback will test the horizontal support again. In the medium term, the horizontal support breakthrough continues to go down, so the corresponding other risk targets are short-term bullish (monthly and weekly level) and medium-term bullish (half-year level). #美SEC加密圆桌会议
✨The USDT market share risk mentioned in the article during the significant rise on November 18 has now been fulfilled, hence the suggestion made in November that this wave would end with a good opportunity for replenishment.
🎯The current USDT market share looks very pessimistic. It is inferred: the demand line has a false breakout, and the mid-term trend shows a violent rebound, with the rebound magnitude > Q1-Q3 of 2024,
🗒️ which means that the risk assets will have a greater correction magnitude in Q1-Q2 of 2025 compared to Q1-Q3 of last year .$BTC $ETH $SOL
🎯The current USDT market share looks very pessimistic. It is inferred: the demand line has a false breakout, and the mid-term trend shows a violent rebound, with the rebound magnitude > Q1-Q3 of 2024,
🗒️ which means that the risk assets will have a greater correction magnitude in Q1-Q2 of 2025 compared to Q1-Q3 of last year .$BTC $ETH $SOL
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It turns out 😆 that as long as you are being scolded, it means you are on the opposite side of the 'chives', and standing opposite to the 'chives' guarantees a win! If your decision-making tendency aligns with the comments in the discussion, then there will be a problem and you need to reflect! #美国加征关税
Seeing everyone on Twitter shouting long, without hesitation go long, the Solana123 rule has good empty positions, the target position remains 92. Waiting for a stacked overbought buff as an entry signal. The left short position can almost be entered 📉📉📉📉📉📉#XRP、SOL、ADA纳入美国战略储备？
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The thing I'm most worried about has come, haha, anyway, 1580 is a dangerous level to go down from here. #美国加密战略储备
The closing status of this weekly ETH candle at 8 AM tomorrow is crucial. As long as the weekly closes above this convergence zone, it is safe. If it closes below 2080, well, I might as well place a defensive order at 1580 on the left side. #ETH
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Review the basis for the correction at 2190 the day before yesterday. MACD golden cross, RSI triple divergence plus an ascending triangle structure to see a breakthrough, compare the two pictures. Currently, it has come to the convergence zone composed of FIB618 and the oblique horizontal direction. As usual, this is a long position, but there is a lack of intervention signals, so it is not considered for the time being. The short position at 2488 above continues to be held. If you want to connect on the left side, 2190 will come again🤣? If you can't connect, forget it #美国加密战略储备 #ETH
In the short term, the price has failed to maintain a bearish trend, creating a new swing low, and the swing low is gradually rising to form a rising triangle structure. This structure looks to break through horizontal resistance, and the MACD has already crossed. The triple divergence in the RSI indicates a depletion of momentum. As long as the short-term structure is not broken, everything is fine. Therefore, the weekly chart tomorrow morning is likely to be safe. However, if we must go to 1580 tonight, what negative news is going to drive this 26% retracement? In summary, I gently added a position here with the previous low as the stop loss.
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🤣 Afraid you low IQ people can't understand the words, which one shouted empty? Tag it out.
Fool, previously kept calling for a short, now showing a long position
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ETH relay triangle, continues to break through!
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The consistently reliable USDT market share indeed shows that when the USDT market share drops, other risky assets rise. Once the first-hand cessation occurs, risk assets will have good opportunities. There will be chances in the next two days #XRP、SOL、ADA纳入美国战略储备？
The USDT market share is at a key resistance formed by the diagonal supply line, horizontal resistance, and fib0.618, showing a candlestick pattern pinbar, combined with an RSI overbought. Looking at a pullback in terms of USDT market share, all risk assets are rising 📈
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Seeing everyone on Twitter shouting long, without hesitation go long, the Solana123 rule has good empty positions, the target position remains 92. Waiting for a stacked overbought buff as an entry signal. The left short position can almost be entered 📉📉📉📉📉📉#XRP、SOL、ADA纳入美国战略储备？
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📉📉📉 Seeing everyone on Twitter shouting bull, it's time to short 🤣 just like when everyone was shouting bull death a few days ago. Target position by March is 71503#XRP、SOL、ADA纳入美国战略储备？
BTC speed is too fast, consider the upper edge of the channel and FIB0.5 (94195) as the second short position #BTC
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Kaito's opportunity to add positions has come, get ready at 2.04!
Kaito, the Fib0.5 key level has formed a pin bar, take profit and run, then take another position at 1.97 #KAITO
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