牛哥说趋势

The most frequently asked question these days is: Brother Niu, is the bull market not over yet, or has the bear market already arrived?

When I first entered the circle, I also didn't believe in a four-year cycle, until this time Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 87,000, and altcoins were halved in value, I truly understood: bulls and bears are not called out, they are revealed through declines.

At the beginning of the month, when Bitcoin was consolidating at 110,000, meme coins were multiplying several times a day, and this scene was exactly the same as the tail end of the bull market in 2021. At that time, the market was frenzied, retail investors were excited, and a month later, there was a complete collapse. I warned about the risks back then and was mocked as a "bearish". Now? The entire network has liquidated 19 billion US dollars, and the annual increase has instantly returned to zero.

This wave of decline was already destined at the peak of emotions. More importantly, the current point: the 18th month after the halving has historically marked the beginning of the transition from bull to bear. Bitcoin may have institutional support, but once altcoins lose liquidity, they will fall freely.

Technically, both the 200-day and 365-day moving averages have been breached, with 72,000 becoming a key support level. Combined with the cooling expectations of Fed rate cuts, hawkish officials, and liquidity tightening after the government shutdown, those expecting a "Christmas rally" by the end of the year should wake up.

My judgment for the end of the year is very clear: a fluctuation around 80,000 to 90,000. If Bitcoin falls below 80,000, this bull market is basically over.

But please remember: bulls do not rise indefinitely, and bears do not fall indefinitely. What is at its peak must fall, and what is at its lowest must rebound. Where we stand now is not the end, but the starting point of the next cycle.

Instead of entangling with bulls and bears, it is better to maintain a light position, keep enough bullets, and not bet on direction. The colder the market, the more real the opportunities. Patience is worth more than price fluctuations.
Follow Brother Niu to unlock the profit code @牛哥说趋势 #加密市场观察 #比特币波动性

In the past few days, I noticed an interesting phenomenon while monitoring the market, which once again confirms the bottleneck that retail investors struggle to break through. The key issue is not a lack of knowledge, but a lack of patience. The market repeats the same script every day: when a favored cryptocurrency consolidates for 3 days, investors' expectations drop from 1000U to 200U. The fundamentals of the cryptocurrency remain unchanged, the investment logic is still valid; what changes is the confidence eroded by time.

The real killer of a bull market has never been a crash. The pain brought by a crash is temporary, while consolidation can continuously consume investors' faith. When assets drop from 10000U to 100U, they hesitate to buy, and when they fall from 100U to 60U, they feel the opportunity is too small. This is not fear of losing, but fear of holding. Passive holding during a downturn does not count as conviction; true composure is reflected in the ability to restrain impulses during an uptrend: when profits begin to appear, it can be unsettling; wanting to exit after a 3-fold increase, the more one earns, the less secure they feel.

The strategy that major funds excel at is "long-term bottoming + rapid rise." They spend 4 and a half years slowly destroying retail investors' confidence, compressing the expectation from 10000U to 200U, turning what should be a full bull market into "small profits are safe." When most people only dare to focus on immediate gains, it is a signal for the major funds to start the market. A long period of decline seems to yield no returns, but in fact, it is gradually transferring future growth potential from retail investors.

A bull market is never simply the result of rising prices; it is a product of the tempering from declines and consolidations. Most investors fall on the eve of a crash and miss the opportunity for a surge; more sadly, when the first glimmers of dawn appear, they choose to retreat, having waited so long, finally seeing hope but not daring to move forward.

If you are experiencing market torment, being worn down by fluctuations, and having your judgment swayed by rises and falls, consider seeking communication. Let us grasp the market rhythm together, enhance our level of understanding, maintain a stable mindset, and avoid becoming slaves to our emotions. @牛哥说趋势
#比特币波动性 #加密市场反弹

On-chain data monitoring shows that around 14:15 today, the Coinbase Prime address received two large ETH transfers from anonymous wallets, totaling approximately 5000 Ethereum, worth up to $151 million. The flow of this massive capital has attracted significant market attention.

From the transfer path, the funds went directly into Coinbase Prime, a platform specifically designed for institutional and high-net-worth users, indicating that the operator is very likely to be an institution or a top whale. Such platforms are typically used for large over-the-counter transactions and asset custody, and capital inflows often indicate three possibilities: preparation for OTC bulk transactions, plans to sell part of their holdings, or inter-institutional asset transfers.

It is worth noting that the current ETH price is in a critical volatility range. This unusual movement may reflect that some large holders are preemptively laying out risk strategies or hedging operations. Recently, market fluctuations have intensified, and large capital flows often signify changes in institutional investor sentiment.

However, the entry of funds into the Prime account does not equate to immediate selling. In many cases, such operations are to prepare liquidity for subsequent transactions or to adjust asset allocation. Short-term market sentiment may be influenced by this, but it does not necessarily mean that there will be direct selling pressure.

Bull哥 believes that such large unusual movements need to be assessed in conjunction with subsequent flows. If funds remain in the Prime account for an extended period without further transferring to spot trading addresses, it may indicate institutional custody demand; if they transfer to the exchange's hot wallet in the short term, market pressure risks should be monitored.

For ordinary investors, whale movements are important market indicators, but they should not be used as the sole basis for decision-making. It is advisable to combine technical analysis with the macro environment for a comprehensive assessment, avoiding blind following of trends. The market carries risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.
#ETH巨鲸增持 #ETH走势分析

长沙"杀洋盘"诈骗案宣判，11人利用虚假虚拟货币平台获刑

近日，长沙市雨花区检察院通报一起新型跨境网络诈骗案。犯罪团伙通过搭建虚假虚拟货币投资平台，专门针对外籍人士实施"杀洋盘"诈骗，涉案金额达34万元。经法院审理，11名犯罪嫌疑人全部被依法判决。

该诈骗模式由传统"杀猪盘"演变而来，犯罪分子通过盗用他人形象打造精英人设，在社交平台物色外籍受害人。其作案手法具有较强迷惑性：先通过长期聊天建立情感信任，再诱导受害人进入虚假投资平台。

办案人员揭露完整诈骗链条：犯罪团伙先在社交平台寻找目标，随后转移至私密软件培养感情。在取得信任后，引导受害人注册虚假投资平台。为诱使受害人加大投入，平台初期会允许小额提现，待大额资金入金后立即关闭提现功能。

专案组通过多维度证据锁定犯罪事实，从平台后台数据发现操纵痕迹，从作案电脑提取诈骗话术，聊天记录完整再现诈骗过程。虚拟货币钱包地址与内部报表清晰呈现资金流向。
笔者观察认为，此案凸显三个值得警惕的新趋势：

一是诈骗手段专业化，犯罪团伙熟练运用虚拟货币的跨境特性；二是目标选择精准化，利用外籍受害人对中国监管环境不熟悉的特点；三是技术应用升级，虚假平台仿真度越来越高。

此案的成功侦破为打击新型跨境网络诈骗犯罪提供了重要判例。检察官提醒投资者，虚拟货币投资需保持警惕，切勿轻信陌生人的高收益承诺，应通过正规平台进行交易，切实保护自身财产安全。
#加密市场观察

I have a friend who first ventured into contract trading, and in just two days, he achieved triple returns, instantly boosting his confidence. However, on the third day, the market took a sharp downturn; a large bearish candle not only wiped out all profits but also led to a complete loss of principal. This experience made him thoroughly understand that the contract market is not an automatic teller machine but a disciplined examination room that specializes in various forms of defiance.

Contract trading has high leverage characteristics, allowing for rapid profit, but the risks are even more deadly. Using 50x leverage may seem like a shortcut, but in reality, it is a fast track to liquidation. To survive in this market, one must master several key principles.

The primary focus should be on the funding rate, which is an important indicator of market sentiment. When the rate is positive, it indicates that long positions need to pay fees to short positions, suggesting a general bullish sentiment in the market, often nearing a temporary peak. When the rate is negative, it means that short positions are dominant, and the downtrend may continue. Wise investors always analyze the funding rate first before deciding on the trading direction.

Leverage is essentially a double-edged sword, and it is recommended that beginners keep it within 3-5 times. High leverage is only suitable for professional traders who can treat liquidation as part of their daily routine. Always remember that position management is more important than directional judgment; preserving principal is key to staying at the table.

A complete trade should involve four stages: first, determine the overall trend through the daily chart; second, look for entry signals such as pullbacks to the midline, RSI stabilization, and increased volume on the four-hour chart; then, strictly execute the preset stop-loss, and finally, take profits promptly when gains reach 10%-20%. The market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is the wisdom to protect profits.

Position management is the foundation of survival, and the position of a single cryptocurrency should not exceed thirty percent. The most brutal aspect of the market is not making you lose money but that you have no chips left when opportunities arise. True experts in the crypto space rely not on precise predictions but on effective risk control.

Opportunities exist in the crypto space, but more so are temptations. Very few can genuinely make money; follow Bull Brother, and you will turn your fortunes around in this market.
#比特币波动性 #ETH走势分析

Beginner's Guide to Contract Trading: Starting with 1000U, How to Steadily Accumulate Profits?

Many friends who are new to the crypto world often ask, Brother Niu, how can I participate in contract trading with a capital of 1000U? My advice has always been to give up the fantasy of getting rich overnight; the primary goal is to learn to survive. Divide the 1000U into ten parts, each part 100U, and only invest one part at a time, keeping leverage within 20 times. Too high leverage can easily lead to an imbalance in mindset. The remaining funds can be temporarily stored in an investment account to generate returns, avoiding arbitrary use.

If a single trade incurs a loss, be sure to pause operations for one to two days, calmly summarize the lessons learned, and do not rush to recover losses. Opportunities always exist in the market, but only by maintaining a clear mind can you seize them. After adjusting your mindset, redistribute the remaining funds into ten parts to continue operations. Once you make a profit, for example, earning 300U, you should immediately withdraw 200U as a safety cushion, and only use the profit portion to continue rolling.

I once guided a fan to strictly follow this strategy, and he started with 800U. Within three months, his account grew to 5000U. He remarked that in the past he always wanted to bet everything at once, but now he understands that steady progress is the fastest way. It should be noted that even with a win rate of only 60%, good position management can still bring continuous profits. In contrast, going all-in even if successful nine times, one mistake can lead to total loss.

If you wish to systematically learn the rhythm of contract trading, feel free to follow my sharing. @牛哥说趋势 we do not pursue short-term windfall profits, but aim for each trade to be clear and rational.
#比特币波动性 #加密市场反弹

Breaking News!! Major Wall Street firms stage an "extreme reversal," rewriting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut script!

The plot twist is even more thrilling than a U.S. drama​
Just a week ago, JPMorgan (J.P. Morgan) was adamant that "the Federal Reserve will definitely not cut interest rates in December," but today, they suddenly reversed course and publicly contradicted themselves: "An interest rate cut is guaranteed in December, and another in January!"

Core reversal highlights​
1️⃣ Key figures speak out: New York Fed President Williams leads the way in "dovish" comments, hinting that an interest rate cut is imminent
2️⃣ Data provides a boost: The delayed September employment report was weak, providing solid justification for a rate cut
3️⃣ New script revealed: A 25 basis point cut in December → another 25 basis point cut in January, with a full pace of cuts

JPMorgan economists admit​
"Although the outcome of the next meeting still has uncertainties, the latest statements from Federal Reserve officials have tipped the scales completely in favor of action in December."

Market impact warning​
The U.S. dollar index may come under pressure
U.S. stock market liquidity is expected to be boosted
Assets like gold and cryptocurrencies may welcome new catalysts

Bull's sharp commentary​
A week ago: Stubbornly holding on to "no rate cut"
A week later: Kneeling and begging for "quick rate cuts"
I suggest JPMorgan create a group before changing predictions next time; the market can't handle this much turmoil
#ETH巨鲸增持 #加密市场反弹

As of today at noon, Ethereum has successfully broken through the psychological barrier of $3000 and is currently consolidating strongly around $3040. This breakout is accompanied by increased trading volume, and the technical indicators show a clear bullish signal. $ETH

This recent rise is supported by three core factors: from a technical perspective, a bullish structure with higher highs has formed on the 4-hour chart, and key indicators are showing a bullish alignment. On-chain data monitoring indicates that large investors are continuously increasing their holdings near the $3000 mark, indicating that major funds recognize the current valuation. More importantly, Ethereum's latest technological upgrade plan has officially been implemented, which will enhance ecological competitiveness through substantial improvements such as lowering layer 2 network fees.

The current market is in a critical game stage: if the price can effectively stabilize above $3050 and break through the $3100 resistance area, the next target will be between $3180 and $3250. However, if it retraces below the $2980 support level, it may test the $2930 to $2950 region again.

Overall, after breaking through significant integer levels, market sentiment for Ethereum has clearly turned positive. However, investors need to closely monitor changes in volume, as a true trending market requires sustained volume increases for confirmation.
#ETH走势分析 #加密市场反弹

After the meeting, is there an increase instead of a decrease?
Ethereum's current price hovers around $2925, with a slightly weak short-term trend. From a technical perspective, the price has fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the market is facing moderate bearish pressure.

Currently, the key support level is at the round figure of $2900. If this level is lost, it may further test $2875 and even approach $2840. On the upside, $2950 constitutes significant resistance in the near term, and only a strong breakthrough above this price will present the opportunity to challenge the $2980 to $3020 range.

Overall, Ethereum is currently in a narrow oscillation range between $2880 and $2960. To restart an upward trend, we need to see the price form a strong breakthrough and stabilize above $2950. Until then, the market may continue to maintain a consolidation pattern.
#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察
$ETH

The two most critical price levels for Bitcoin right now are: 83680 and 88000. Stop asking whether it's a rebound or a reversal; the answer is not to be guessed, just look at whether these two positions can hold or break through.

The most important resistance above is at $88000. This position happens to coincide with the 200-hour moving average, which has been continuously suppressing price rebounds since this Monday. As long as the price cannot firmly stand above this level, any rise can only be considered a technical pullback and is unlikely to develop into a significant trend. If it moves higher, the range of 98000 to 99000 will be the next solid resistance wall, which has been tested multiple times earlier this month for its pressure strength.

The support that absolutely cannot be lost is at $83680. Here, the 100-week moving average and long-term bullish trend line converge, forming the core defense line for bulls. If the closing price falls below this level, it means that the short-term structure has officially weakened, and the downside space will be opened up. The next support worth noting is at $74500, where the low point of the April pullback found support.

The current market is in a typical range game stage, not a trending market. Below 88000, rebounds are unlikely to perform; above 83680, the risk of a significant drop is manageable. The true directional choice depends on which of these two key price levels is broken first.
$BTC
#比特币波动性 #加密市场反弹

1200U to 38,000U: A Beginner's Steady Rolling Warehouse Method
Too many people rush into the cryptocurrency market with 1,800U, only thinking about doubling their money, but end up losing everything in less than half a month. However, I mentored a complete novice who started with 1200U and reached 25,000U in two months, stabilizing his account above 38,000U without making any major mistakes. His secret is three points: dividing money, waiting for momentum, and locking in positions.

1. Divide money into three parts; survival is the first priority
Split 1200U into three parts, each worth 400U, each serving a purpose. The first part is for day trading, focusing on just one trade per day, aiming for a 5% profit and exiting immediately, never greedy for a second longer. The second part is for swing trading, not chasing small fluctuations, but waiting for the trend to become clear before entering, targeting at least a 10% return. The third part is a trump card; even in a bad market, it stays untouched, serving as capital for recovery. Many people fail because they impulsively enter with their entire capital and end up missing even the chance to adjust.

2. Only take big trends, lie flat during fluctuations
The market is in chaotic fluctuations 80% of the time; frequent trading equates to giving fees to the exchange. If a key asset remains flat for more than three days, close the software and take a break. Wait until the price breaks below the fluctuation range or stabilizes at key moving averages before entering. When profits exceed 20% of the principal, withdraw 30% to secure some gains. Usually, patiently wait; when you do act, ensure you capture a wave, which is much more reliable than constant fiddling.

3. Use rules to lock in emotions; don’t trust feelings
Set three hard rules in advance: set a stop loss at 2%, and it must be executed at the point, even if it later skyrockets. If profits exceed 4%, sell half first, letting the remaining profits run. Never add to losing positions, and don’t fantasize about averaging down costs. You don’t need to be right every time, but execution must be on point. Let the rules combat greed and fear so you won’t be thrown off rhythm by the market.

Doubling a small capital relies not on luck, but on risk control and waiting for opportunities systematically. In the cryptocurrency market, being steady and methodical is more important than anything else.
#比特币波动性 #加密市场反弹 $ETH

I have seen too many people work hard to save up to one million, only to lose it all in one trade. The most ruthless way to make money in the crypto world is not by hoarding coins or arbitraging, but by rolling positions.

This method is a thousand times more exciting than hoarding coins; you either become rich overnight or go back to square one overnight. If you only have a thousand dollars left for meals, turning that into a hundred thousand in three months through rolling positions is not a myth; it happens every day.

The underlying logic of rolling positions boils down to three things: a hundred times leverage, reinvesting profits, and sticking to one direction. I started by testing the waters with three hundred U, and each time I opened a hundred times contract with just ten U, making a one percent profit and closing was common. I would take half of the profits and continue to roll the other half; as long as I got it right for eleven consecutive times, ten U could turn into ten thousand U.

So why can't ninety percent of people roll? Because they fall victim to these three points: they don't take profits and want to try again, they can't accept losses and increase their positions as they lose, and the direction changes every three minutes, getting hit by the market repeatedly. I only have a few strict rules: cut losses immediately when wrong, forcibly stop after twenty consecutive wrong trades, and withdraw once the account hits five thousand U to avoid getting carried away. If the market is unclear, I would rather wait than act rashly.

Last year, there was a big market movement; I rolled five hundred U into five hundred thousand in three days. Others thought I was crazy, but I had waited for a full four months without placing a single trade beforehand. Rolling positions is not about trading every day; it’s about seizing the real opportunities when they arise.

Now many people ask me if they can still roll. Don't rush to ask me; first, ask yourself if the market has enough volatility, if the trend is one-sided, if you can only catch the body of the fish without touching the tail, and if you have the patience to wait four months just to make one trade. If you can answer yes to all these questions, then you can indeed give it a try.
#ETH走势分析 #加密市场反弹

The 90% Trader's Truth and Breakthrough Guide
Do you think losses are a technical issue? The truth is—90% of losers are repeating the same "suicidal" operating patterns.
Want to break through? This "Survivor's Guide" below should be ingrained in your DNA!

1. Your Circle Determines Your Wealth Coordinates​
The five traders you communicate with often determine your profit ceiling. If you associate with losers, you'll normalize excuses; if you walk with winners, you'll make discipline your instinct.

2. Belief is the Last Moat​
Without the belief of "inevitable success," a single consecutive loss can be enough to make you betray the system. True confidence is the ability to pull the trigger even after consecutive stop losses.

3. No Flexibility in Front of Rules​
"I feel it will rise" "It’s almost there"—these vague judgments are the cancer cells of your account. Replace subjective conjecture with quantitative standards; otherwise, the market will teach you how to behave in no time.

4. The Divide Between Professionals and Gamblers​
Traders who can't remember the details of each transaction are like drivers without navigation. A trading journal is not optional; it is a necessity for survival.

5. Risk Management Determines Lifespan​
Profit determines how well you live, while risk management determines how long you live. Approach trading with a special forces mindset when opening positions, and think like an insurance company when closing them.

6. Compound Interest is the Only Shortcut for Ordinary People​
Reject the fantasy of getting rich overnight and focus on accumulating every 1% advantage. Five years from now, you'll realize that slow is the fastest way.

The Final Truth:​
The market is never a technical game but a purgatory of human nature. Those "foolish people" who execute simple rules to the extreme ultimately become the winners.
#加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations reversed overnight, has the market already celebrated in advance?

Key points:
✅ Hawkish retreat, dovish steering! The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December skyrocketed to 80% in just three days.
✅ Treasury bond bulls are celebrating, with futures contract trading volumes surging to record highs.
✅ Key turning point: Weak employment data + Federal Reserve officials' “supportive comments”.

Market sentiment shifted overnight​
BlockBeats reports that on November 26, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations staged an “extreme reversal”! The market, which was still wavering last week, is now betting that the Federal Reserve will pull the trigger on a rate cut again at the December rate decision. The Treasury bond market responded accordingly, and a new wave of rising channels quietly opened up.

Data speaks volumes​
The probability of a rate cut surged: from 30% to 80%, in just a few days.
Futures contract positions skyrocketed, with January contract trading volumes continuously breaking records​.
Key catalysts: Delayed release of September employment data + New York Fed President Williams' statement of “rate cuts possible soon”.

“The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are fierce, but the dovish side has clearly gained the upper hand,” said Brandywine Global fund manager Tracy Chen pointedly.

Now is not the time to ask "Will there be a rate cut?", but rather to ask "How to seize this market opportunity"! Historical experience tells us: When the probability exceeds 80%, when major players collectively align, when data fully supports — this is a no-brainer.

My judgment is clear: A rate cut in December is a 100% certain event. Those who are still hesitating will regret it after the first quarter of next year. Adjust your positions immediately, embrace the dovish cycle, this is the only correct choice right now!
#加密市场反弹 #美联储重启降息步伐

📣Breaking News! Lock in the initial jobless claims data at 21:30 tonight, know all about the Thanksgiving holiday arrangements!

The Thanksgiving holiday in the United States is approaching, and there are changes to financial market trading hours! All investors, please note that tonight (November 26) at 21:30, the initial jobless claims data in the United States will be released early!

Key time points overview:
✅ November 26 (tonight) 21:30: The initial jobless claims data in the United States will be released early!
✅ November 27 (tomorrow): The US stock and bond markets will be fully closed!
✅ Gold, silver, and oil futures trading: Ending early, pay attention to position management!

Why is this data release worth paying attention to?
Due to the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, the economic data that is usually released as per convention will be published early, market liquidity may weaken, and volatility may increase! Investors need to position themselves in advance to avoid passively "stepping on mines"～

Source: BlockBeats releases in conjunction with Jinshi Data, authoritative news at your fingertips!

The market is prone to "slacking off" before and after the holiday, but opportunities often hide in the volatility! Remember to set your alarm tonight, don't be a small transparency in front of the data.
#比特币波动性 #加密市场反弹

3 AM! The Federal Reserve's blockbuster report is coming, and the market is about to face a major shock?

Odaily Planet Daily news Just now, the market received a significant piece of news: The Federal Reserve will officially release the latest economic conditions Beige Book at 3:00 AM Beijing time this Thursday (November 27th)!

Core Points Overview
Event: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions
Time: 3:00 AM Beijing time, November 27 (Thursday)
Impact: Expected to cause significant fluctuations in the prices of major global assets

This report is known as the Federal Reserve's "internal intelligence," directly reflecting the true economic temperature of various regions in the United States. Each release is a sleepless night for global traders—Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, gold, and foreign exchange markets will all inevitably face a new round of directional choices.

Why is this report so crucial?
The details of the Beige Book often hint at the future direction of monetary policy. If the report indicates an overheating economy, interest rate hike expectations may rise; if it reveals signs of recession, speculation about interest rate cuts will intensify. This report is regarded as a barometer for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

A late-night reminder for traders
If you are a cryptocurrency or U.S. stock trader, make sure to closely monitor the market this Thursday morning! Historical experience shows that at the moment the Beige Book is released, the market is prone to "instant spikes" or "one-way surges." Plan your positions in advance, set your stop-loss and take-profit orders to avoid being caught in severe fluctuations.

The market is about to迎来关键转折点, are you ready?
#美联储会议 #加密市场观察

After 7 years of trading cryptocurrencies, from sleepless nights due to liquidation to stable profits, I want to share a few heartfelt words with newcomers who are still struggling.

First, only trade at night. The market fluctuates wildly during the day, and the news is chaotic, making it easy to incur losses. After 9 PM, the trends become clearer, and focusing on the periods when trends appear is much more prudent than blindly trading all day.

Second, withdraw profits first. Account floating profits are just numbers; I withdraw 400U for every 1000U I earn. Taking profits is not cowardice but the wisdom of safeguarding gains. Many people go from profits to liquidation, just one pullback away.

Third, trust the indicators rather than your feelings. Trading based on feelings can be very costly. My rules are clear: at least two indicators, like MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands, must be aligned before opening a position. For short-term trades, refer to the 1-hour chart; for trend analysis, use the 4-hour chart—don't chase after rises; wait for pullbacks to confirm.

Fourth, stop-loss is protection, not a restraint. When watching the market, dynamically adjust your stop-loss to lock in profits, and set fixed stop-losses when exiting to guard against risks. Being stopped out is normal; not being stopped out is a disaster.

Fifth, you must withdraw funds every week. Withdraw 30% of profits at a set time on Fridays; this habit has helped me move from repeatedly going back to zero to stable profits. Stick to this for three months, and you will understand that stability is more important than high profits.

Sixth, these red lines must not be crossed. Leverage should not exceed 10 times; beginners are advised to use 3-5 times. Limit daily trades to no more than 3. Stay away from altcoins and meme coins; these are gambles, not investments. Never trade with borrowed money.

Finally, I want to say that trading cryptocurrencies is essentially a game against yourself. Watch the market on time, rest on time, and abide by the rules to survive in this market. Those who can survive will eventually profit.

If you can stick to this method for three months, while I can't guarantee financial freedom, at least you will achieve stable profits. This summary of 7 years of experience hopes to help you.
#加密市场观察 #加密市场反弹
$ETH

Starting with $900, achieving $40,000 in 47 days is not a fantasy. The core of turning small funds around can be summed up in three words: control the pace.

Many people rush to 'gamble' when their capital is small, and the more anxious they are, the more they lose. I also took a wrong path at first, but later realized: the key to small funds is 'stability', and the core of stability is controlling the pace.

Position management is the first hurdle. I only use 15%-20% of my capital for each trade. After making a profit, I immediately lock in part of the profit and set up a drawdown protection. I only make 3-5 highly certain trades each week, avoiding hot trends and emotional trading.

My real journey was: the first doubling took 12 days, the second 21 days, and the third 14 days, without relying on a sudden market surge, but slowly accumulating step by step through controlling the pace.
The fundamental reason many people lose money is 'gambling with luck': not stopping losses, over-leveraging, and blindly following others. Profits depend on discipline, not luck.

Among my followers, some turned $1,200 into $32,000 in three weeks, simply by strictly adhering to 'controlling the pace' — opening positions as planned, taking profits and stopping losses at the right times, and not being disturbed by short-term fluctuations.

The crypto world is never short of opportunities; what it lacks are people who understand the pace. There's no need to envy others' doubling, nor to worry about having little capital; as long as the method is right and discipline is strict, opportunities will arise.

My team and I have compiled practical experiences and insights. If you want to proceed steadily, feel free to follow @牛哥说趋势 #加密市场反弹 .

Last month, a fan sent me a message in the chat room, and his tone was very sincere. He said, "Brother Niu, I just entered this circle, and I only have 500U as capital. I don't expect to double it overnight; I just want to learn some methods steadily."

This sentence left a deep impression on me. Most people come to me and always ask which coin will skyrocket or how to quickly break even. Only he mentioned not getting rich but focused on learning.
I understand how challenging it is with small funds; 500U can easily go to zero with a slight mistake. So I told him to divide the money into ten parts and only use 50U to test the waters each time. If he makes a mistake, he should stop immediately and never operate consecutively.

He followed my advice completely, and his execution was impressive. Initially, he encountered losses in his first two trades, but he strictly adhered to the rules, stopped in time, and did not increase his position out of impatience. He even proactively provided feedback, saying, "Brother Niu, I remember your words; I'm here to learn to make money steadily, not to gamble with my life."

He set himself a very pragmatic goal: a daily profit of 2% would suffice. Gradually, he found his rhythm. One day, he made 5%, took a screenshot to send me, and said the extra amount had been transferred to a cold wallet for safekeeping, absolutely not being greedy.

This steady and methodical approach is rare in the market. Even when someone in the group shared a screenshot of doubling their investment, he just smiled and never disrupted his rhythm. He insisted on recording every trade, never touching the principal, and gradually increased his position using only profits.

The results were gratifying: in just over half a month, his funds grew from 500U to 1500U; after a month, it surpassed 10,000U; and another three weeks later, his account was close to 50,000U. The entire process was clear and transparent, with every step relying on small profits accumulated.

Later, he told me that now every morning he checks the profit-taking line first and then looks at the market, and his mindset is becoming more stable.

The cryptocurrency world has never been a casino; true success does not belong to speculators but to those who are patient and follow the rules. Small funds are not afraid of starting low but are afraid of being impatient, greedy, and not stopping. As long as the method is right and the rhythm is steady, small amounts can slowly snowball into something significant.

If you are also willing to settle down, not gamble or be impatient, and start steadily from small steps, I am always here. @牛哥说趋势 does not take gamblers, only teaches methods.
#加密市场观察 #加密市场反弹

Meet a friend who transitioned from mining; after the industry adjustment, he directly exchanged his digital assets for USDT and began engaging in contract trading. When he found me with only 2000U, he knew almost nothing about technical indicators and market news. However, with a simple method, he grew his funds to 100,000U within a year, and he never experienced a margin call.

His success was not based on luck or talent, but on a deep understanding of the market's "anti-human" characteristics— the more one pursues complex techniques, the easier it is to fall into losses. The core of his method can be summarized into three simple yet effective principles:
1. Only follow clear trends and do not predict market reversals.
He never tries to catch the bottom of declining cryptocurrencies; he only cares when the price stabilizes above the 30-day moving average and there is consecutive volume increase for three days. Only then does he test with 10% of his position, preferring to miss earlier gains than to take risks.

2. Strictly adhere to "increase position on profit, stop loss on loss."
After a trial position gains over 5%, add 20% to the position; when it rises another 10%, increase to a 50% cap. If losses reach 3%, immediately stop loss, eliminating any sense of lucky thinking.

3. Do not be greedy when taking profits; exit once in profit.
Set 15%-20% as the profit-taking point for small market movements, and not exceed 30% for larger movements, without pursuing the highest selling point. For him, missing out is much more acceptable than incurring losses.

Most people in the market incur losses due to frequent trading and chasing highs and lows, while those who achieve stable profits are often the long-term investors who adhere to rules and appear "foolish." This method may not be thrilling, but it helps investors avoid risks and continuously accumulate returns amid volatility.
#加密市场回调 #加密市场观察