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“The Real Bottom Comes When Everyone Has Completely Lost Hope”
In a single tweet, Changpeng Zhao (CZ) states: The market has not yet reached its true psychological bottom because the majority of participants are still optimistic, buying every dip, and treating $100k–$150k Bitcoin prices as inevitable. According to him, the real bottom only forms when collective optimism turns into absolute despair and total surrender .
1. Distinction Between Price Bottom and Capitulation Bottom
- Price bottom: the actual lowest price point (e.g., ~$15,500 in November 2022).
- Capitulation bottom: the moment the very last long-term believer gives up and demand effectively drops to zero. This psychological low usually precedes or coincides with the final price low.

CZ explicitly places the current market in the final stage of a bull cycle: Distribution.
- In the classic Wyckoff schematic:
Accumulation → Markup → Distribution → Markdown
Signs of distribution he highlights:
- Retail continues aggressively “buying the dip” (weak hands replacing smart money that is quietly distributing).
- Extremely high price targets ($100k–$150k) have become consensus (euphoric expectations).
- Absence of widespread fear or collective pessimism.
3. Capitulation Indicators Explicitly Listed by CZ
- Complete silence about crypto in media and communities (total media blackout).
- Long-term holders from previous cycles (2017–2021 cohort) selling at massive losses while mocking their own past decisions (self-ridicule + full loss acceptance).
- Physical disposal of hardware wallets in the trash (ultimate symbolic surrender)
CZ reiterates that the only sustainable competitive advantage in crypto cycles is the ability to withstand psychological pain longer than the crowd (higher pain tolerance → superior time horizon).
👉 One-Sentence Simplification of CZ’s Core Idea
The price can still fall a lot, but the true bottom is not made by lower prices—it is made by the collective collapse of faith in the asset; and we are still very far from that collapse.”
CZ’s post is not casual commentary; it is a deliberate reminder that crypto cycles are driven primarily by crowd psychology rather than fundamentals or macro conditions. As long as hope and greed remain the dominant emotions, the major corrective phase (Markdown) has not yet begun. Any current bounce is merely a relief rally inside the distribution phase, not the start of a new bull market.

💡 What It Is
The Liquidity Grab Strategy is built on one powerful truth:
👉 Before the market makes a real move, it often hunts liquidity first.
Large institutions can’t just buy or sell instantly — they need liquidity.
So, the market pushes above highs or below lows to trigger stop-losses and fill institutional orders.
Once that liquidity is collected, price often reverses sharply in the opposite direction — revealing the true move.
⚙️ How It Works
1️⃣ Price builds a clear zone of liquidity (equal highs/lows, support, or resistance).
2️⃣ The market sweeps that zone — triggering stops and luring traders in.
3️⃣ A strong rejection or shift in structure follows (wick rejection, BOS, or ChoCH).
4️⃣ That’s your signal — the liquidity grab is complete, and the real trend begins.
🧭 How to Trade It
Identify obvious liquidity pools — places where traders hide stops.
Wait for a fake breakout (liquidity sweep).
Enter in the opposite direction after confirmation.
Place your stop just beyond the liquidity grab wick.
Target the next liquidity zone or key imbalance (FVG).
⚙️ Best Tools to Use
Equal Highs / Equal Lows → mark liquidity areas.
Volume Profile → confirm absorption during the sweep.
Order Flow / Footprint Charts → spot trapped traders.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG) & Order Blocks (OB) → find high-probability reentries.
💬 Pro Tip
“The market doesn’t move to your stop — it moves because of your stop.”
Learn where liquidity hides, and you’ll understand where price is heading next. 💰
$BTC $XRP