美国糕手

2025/11/20预测帖（仅供参考）
$BTC 比特币:92500附近可空目标90000
$ETH 以太坊:3100附近可空目标3000

$BTC On-chain data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders and 'whales' have made large-scale profit-taking in the past month, marking the strongest sell-off activity since the beginning of 2024, which directly increased selling pressure in the market

Wednesday Operation Forecast (For Reference Only)
$BTC : Short near 93500 Target 91000
$ETH : Short near 3080 Target 2950

$ETH The overall Ethereum market is under pressure, showing a fluctuating downward trend. The price has repeatedly contested the key level of $3500, but ultimately fell below and failed to hold it. During this period, there was a technical rebound attempting to return above this level, but it failed due to insufficient momentum, subsequently further dipping to around $3440. Currently, market sentiment is bearish, with short-term support focusing on the $3360 line. If the $3500 level cannot be quickly reclaimed, a deeper adjustment may be faced.

This year, FOMC voting member and Boston Fed President Collins stated on Wednesday that she believes the threshold for further rate cuts in the short term is "relatively high," due to concerns about inflation remaining elevated. Collins voted in favor of rate cuts last month. "Unless there are clear signs of deterioration in the labor market, I will remain cautious about further easing, especially in the context of limited inflation data due to the government shutdown... In the current highly uncertain environment, maintaining the policy rate at the current level for some time may be the appropriate approach to balance inflation and employment risks." Her remarks highlight the deep divisions that exist within the Fed. Since the last rate cut, several Fed officials with voting rights, including Collins, have signaled increasing caution about further cuts. Collins believes that short-term borrowing costs are currently in a "mildly restrictive" range, while the overall financial environment still poses a tailwind for economic growth. The labor market has indeed shown signs of slowing, but the downside risks have not intensified since the summer. $BTC

$BTC
Bitcoin's weak performance in October may be setting the stage for a year-end rebound—this rebound is referred to as the 'Santa Claus Rally,' which historically boosts the cryptocurrency market in December.
Data from Coinglass shows that in the past eight years, Bitcoin has ended December with gains in six of those years, with increases ranging from 8% to 46%, indicating that the world's largest digital asset has a consistent seasonal advantage.
LVRG Research Director Nick Ruck stated in a Telegram message: 'We are observing the market shifting from panic selling to strategic accumulation by long-term holders... This recovery trajectory, supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts and institutional adoption, positions the market for a strong 'Santa Claus Rally.'
The 'Santa Claus Rally' refers to traders preparing for year-end optimism and the lighter trading during the holiday season amplifying price fluctuations, which leads to Bitcoin trending upwards in December. Historically, it has ended most years with monthly gains, sometimes recording strong double-digit growth.
This pattern reflects the seasonal dynamics of the market, where prices follow cyclical calendar trends driven by investor psychology, tax planning, and portfolio adjustments. In the cryptocurrency space, it typically marks a shift from profit-taking to re-accumulation as traders begin to look forward to the new year and set the tone for risk appetite and liquidity in the broader digital asset market.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has led to significant interruptions and delays in the collection of key economic data for September and October, with some data possibly lost permanently. This has made it difficult for economists, investors, and the Federal Reserve to comprehensively and timely assess the true health of the U.S. economy.
Main impacts and current situation:
1. Permanent data loss: Some survey data that require manual collection (such as certain special reports and household surveys) could not be completed due to the shutdown, meaning parts of the economic situation for October may never be known.
2. Severe delays in data release: The release of almost all economic data for September and October has been forced to stop. Even when the government reopens, statistical agencies will need time to clear the backlog of data and reschedule release dates.
3. Key data affected:
· Inflation indicators: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE, the inflation measure most closely watched by the Federal Reserve) for October face risks of delayed release.
· Employment data: The non-farm payroll report for September is expected to be released first, but the employment report and other data for October (such as PPI, retail sales, etc.) will all be delayed.
4. Impact on decision-making: The missing and delayed data has complicated the Federal Reserve's policy formulation, forcing it to operate in a "fog."
5. Economic outlook expectations: Despite the shock to the economy from the shutdown, institutions such as Goldman Sachs have still slightly raised their growth expectations for the fourth quarter. Hassett expects economic growth to return to positive territory by early 2026.
6. Solutions are imminent: With the Senate passing a bill to restart the government, the shutdown is about to end, and statistical agencies will begin to tackle the data backlog issue.

Short-term (next few weeks): Leaning bearish/volatile. The market will first digest the positive news of the government reopening but will soon face the reality of a "data vacuum" and "data delays." Existing signals of employment weakness and persistent high inflation will be magnified amid uncertainty, leading to increased market volatility with risks tilted downward.
Medium term (next few quarters): Leaning bullish. If the subsequently released data (despite delays) can confirm that the economy is indeed as Goldman Sachs and Hassett predict—that is, growth remains moderate.
#美国结束政府停摆 $BTC

$ETH
Future trend of Ethereum: cautious in the short term, optimistic in the medium to long term
Tokenized economy brings traditional assets into Ethereum, creating significant value; continuous technological upgrades like 'Fusaka' will enhance network performance and reduce costs; institutions show a clear willingness to increase holdings through channels such as spot ETFs.

“Federal Reserve Mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos: The internal divergences within the Federal Reserve have cast a shadow over the path to interest rate cuts. During the nearly eight years of Chair Powell's tenure, such a degree of disagreement has been unprecedented. Officials have split over which poses a greater threat: persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market, and even a return to official economic data may not bridge the divide. Although investors believe there is still a significant likelihood of the Fed cutting rates at the next meeting, this split complicates what seemed like a feasible plan less than two months ago. It remains uncertain whether officials will cut rates again at the December meeting. New data may help quell the debate. Some officials believe that the December and January meetings can largely be seen as interchangeable, which makes the timeline for a rate cut by year-end seem somewhat contrived. Another possibility is that a rate cut in December could be accompanied by guidance that sets a higher threshold for subsequent cuts. #美联储降息周期