阿广带单日记

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#加密市场观察 #比特币波动性

On the road of contracts, there are only two outcomes:

Either it pushes you up, or it directly clears you out of the market.

Many people are unwilling to admit this.

With a few thousand U charging into the market, fantasizing about turning things around in a few days, and eventually blowing up their accounts has become a routine, then defining the market as a scam.

I have also stepped into pitfalls.

In the early days, I used a small amount of capital for high-frequency trading, stayed up late watching the market, and once a floating loss magnified, my mindset immediately went out of control; a single needle could take away all my principal. Later, surviving was not luck, but finally understanding:

Blowing up your account is not an accident; it’s the tuition fee that recognition has to pay sooner or later.

Many people think that 3x or 5x is very stable, but it actually just pushes the risk further down the road.

Once leverage is magnified, losses are exponential, and when you add transaction fees, slippage, and frequent trading, the account is slowly being drained.

The more brutal reality is the math itself:

If you lose 50%, you need to double to come back;

If you lose 90%, you need 9 times.

So constantly adding positions and reinvesting will only lead to a faster return to zero.

What truly helped me get out was establishing an executable system.

For example, BOLL is not about watching signals, but about observing the contraction and expansion, to judge whether the trend is really coming.

Don’t open emotional trades, just follow the rules;

If it’s time to cut losses, then cut losses, and turn off your feelings.

If you are still relying on intuition to trade,

The problem has never been luck, but that you don’t have a system that can allow you to survive long-term.

If you want to go far, don’t bear the weight alone anymore.
#巨鲸动向

From the message itself, the Bank of Japan is not making a "one-time increase and done" this time, but is clearly signaling the market:

The interest rate hike cycle may not be over yet.

The key impacts can be analyzed in three layers——

First layer: Liquidity expectations, short-term bearish for the crypto market

Japan has officially raised the benchmark interest rate to 0.75% (a new high in 30 years), and the governor has made it clear:

If the economy and inflation meet expectations, further rate hikes may still occur in the future.

This essentially tells the market:

The era of low interest rates is completely over, and capital is no longer "infinitely cheap".

For assets that rely on liquidity (crypto, US stocks, some commodities), there is short-term pressure.

Second layer: Yen capital repatriation, passive pressure on risk assets

Japan has long been one of the world's largest sources of "carry trades".

Once the expectation of rate hikes continues, the logic of capital is very simple:

Sell high-risk overseas assets → Exchange for yen → Reduce leverage and risk.

This type of sell-off doesn't tell a story or pick currencies,

Whoever has good liquidity gets sold first——

BTC and ETH often bear the brunt.

Third layer: Timing issue, it's not done in one day

From the statements made, the Bank of Japan is very cautious, emphasizing "assess the impact before deciding the next step".

This means:

👉 The bearish impact is not a one-time hit, but rather a phase of repeated digestion.

The market is more likely to move:

Choppy downward pressure → Repeatedly testing the lows → Discussing recovery after emotions clear,

rather than "plummeting on the same day, immediately reversing".

Japan's interest rate hike is a short-term bearish signal for the crypto market with a slow pace,

it's not the end of the world, but it is definitely not a signal to bottom-fish immediately.

At this stage, controlling positions and waiting for emotions to clear is more important than guessing the bottom.
#巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察

$JELLYJELLY Many accounts of many people never grow large; the problem is not in technology, but in the sense of rhythm.

You can read K lines and understand indicators, but once it comes to real trading, it gets chaotic:

$ZRC Rushing to take positions without a clear direction, gambling when the direction is unclear, and immediately thinking about recovering losses after one losing trade.

In this state, even if the capital increases tenfold, it will eventually revert to the starting point.

$F Those who truly push their accounts from small capital to hundreds of thousands or millions have never done it through one or two big wins,

but instead work hard only during the phases with the "highest win rates," gradually magnifying the correct profits.

Trading is not about who takes more actions; the core principle is:

Only enter the market when you are sure, and stay out when you are not.

Rolling positions is not mindless adding to positions, but rather follows a sequence:

First stabilize profits → Use profits to accelerate → Then return to a stable state.

Allow for drawdowns, but only on profits; the principal must be isolated and protected.

I have three requirements for small capital:

First, only trade in trending markets.

Trend segments, breakout segments, and corrective markets after extreme volatility.

Avoid trading in sideways markets; if the direction is unclear, it’s better to wait.

Second, always leave room in your position.

Do not go all in, do not gamble; have clear stop losses.

If you are wrong, you can withdraw immediately; if you are right, push the next segment with the trend.

Third, profits must be taken in stages.

Rolling positions is not about emotional amplification; it is about using the money earned to continue working.

A stable account leads to stable judgment.

Remember:

Completely capturing a segment of the market,

is much safer than ten small wins.

If small capital wants to go far, it relies on rhythm and discipline.
#加密市场观察

Japan's interest rate hike is imminent; how does the cryptocurrency world view it? Let's get to the point.

If Japan really raises the interest rate to 0.75%, this is not just an emotional news item, but a hard impact on the financial level.

Japan has had low interest rates for a long time, and a lot of global funds are borrowed in yen to invest in dollar assets for arbitrage. Once interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing goes up, and this chain has to reverse.

Now let's look at another key point:

Japan holds $1.18 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds.

Interest rate hike = increased debt repayment pressure = necessary adjustment of asset structure.

In simple terms:

Sell dollar assets, exchange for yen.

This type of selling has three characteristics:

Not concerned with good or bad, only with liquidity.

Not discussing emotions, only discussing efficiency.

Who can sell easiest, sell first.

So in the short term:

U.S. stocks, gold, BTC, ETH will all find it hard to stand alone; volatility will definitely be amplified.

But don't just focus on the bad news.

The market law has always been clear: only after concentrated risk is released can there be real opportunities.

For institutions,

extreme volatility = a window for restructuring and repricing.

The conclusion is simple:

Short-term bias towards impact, don’t hold on stubbornly;

After the event materializes, focus on the repair rhythm;

Once the asset replacement is finished, the market is likely to enter a new pricing cycle.

Opportunities often hide in the most chaotic times.
#加密市场观察 #巨鲸动向

12.18 Morning Analysis｜Weak Rebound

BTC is currently fluctuating around 86000. After reaching the upper band in 4H, it formed a long upper shadow, and the bullish momentum quickly weakened; although there was a technical pullback near the lower band, the bearish structure remains intact, with the upper middle band + MA30 forming the main resistance.

Indicators:

MACD red bars are expanding but the dead cross remains unresolved, indicating a weak rebound;

KDJ is falling into the oversold zone;

RSI is approaching 25, with insufficient rebound momentum.

→ Long positions do not currently have the conditions.

From the daily chart perspective: The K-line has effectively broken below the lower band, and the bearish rhythm continues. In the short term, we first look at the support of the previous low at 83900; if this fails, under the catalyst of data (CPI), it may drop to the line of 81150.

Strategy: Focus on shorting during the rebound

BTC: Enter short at 86800–87300, target 85500–85000

ETH: Same strategy, layout short positions under pressure during the rebound

Strict risk control, quick in and out.
#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

The seemingly dumbest cryptocurrency trading tactics are actually the least likely to fail (Key points for beginners)

In the cryptocurrency world, those who lose money often have issues not with technology, but with chaotic operations.

I later discovered that the truly stable way to make money is actually through methods with very few rules, relying entirely on execution.

This set of ideas consists of four steps: mechanical, simple, but very effective.

Step 1: Only trade trending coins

Look at the daily MACD, and focus on one thing — a golden cross above the 0 axis.

This represents a strong bullish trend, with funds present in the market.

A golden cross below the 0 axis may look good, but it's likely a false rebound, so just skip it.

Step 2: One moving average determines life and death

I only use the 20-day moving average.

If the price is above the moving average, the trend is still valid, you can hold;

Once it effectively breaks below, don’t look for reasons, just close out.

This is not prediction; it's risk control. If the main force has left, don't stubbornly hold on.

Step 3: Position layering, don’t go all in

If there’s no significant breakout, only use half your position to test;

When both price and volume are above the moving average, then consider adding to a full position.

Take profits with a rhythm:

If it rises by 40%, take one-third off the table,

If it rises to 80%, take another one-third,

Let the remaining profits run.

Step 4: Stop-loss must be unconditional

Cut losses if it breaks the line, even if it rebounds the next day, don’t regret.

The vast majority of significant losses are caused by waiting for “just a little longer.”

In summary:

Don’t guess tops, don’t bottom fish, don’t cling to battles, use rules to counter human nature.

In the crypto world, discipline leads to longevity, and compound interest will come.
#巨鲸动向

In the cryptocurrency world, technology can only come second; human nature always takes the first place.

What truly blows up accounts is not the inability to analyze, but three things:

Wanting to catch a rebound, wanting to break even, and not admitting when wrong.

When I first entered the market, I was the same, staying up late to watch the market, chasing prices, and my emotions would explode with every market fluctuation. I lost money, and I felt like I was falling apart. It wasn't until later that I realized the problem wasn't with the market, but with myself.

So I set up a set of "anti-human nature rules" for myself; they're not clever, but they work well.

First, don't act impulsively.

If there are no signals, do not trade; missing out on opportunities is fine, but placing random orders is a slow suicide.

Second, trade at fixed times.

I usually only operate after 9 PM; after news digestion, the trends are cleaner with fewer false fluctuations.

Third, indicators must be consistent.

MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands; at least two indicators must point in the same direction before considering entry; I only trust resonance, not feelings.

Fourth, prioritize stop-losses.

If I can monitor the market, I will raise the stop-loss in line with the trend;

If I can't monitor, I set a hard stop-loss at 3% to survive first before discussing profits.

Fifth, watch the right cycles.

For short-term trades, look at the 1-hour chart; consider going long after two bullish candles;

For sideways movements, use the 4-hour chart and only act near support levels.

Sixth, avoid junk coins.

Altcoins have many traps and toxic volatility; beginners can easily end up back at square one.

Ultimately, trading is not about who makes money faster, but who lasts longer.

Control greed, respect stop-losses, live long, and money will naturally come.
#巨鲸动向

12·17 Afternoon ETH View

ETH is currently still in a corrective phase after a decline, with prices operating below the middle Bollinger Band, and the structure is weak. The current rebound is a technical correction, not a trend reversal, and should be treated with a range-based mindset.

Technical Structure

Prices are pressured by the middle band, the lower band is flattening, and the downward momentum is weakening but has not reversed, leaning towards range-bound fluctuations.

MACD: The green bars are shortening, bearish momentum is diminishing, but it remains below the zero line, and a golden cross has not formed, limiting the rebound space.

Long Position Strategy (Buy Low)

Entry: 2910–2890

Target: 2970–3000

Stop Loss: Below 2865

Only participate at the lower edge of the pullback range, do not chase highs.

Short Position Strategy (Rebound Defense)

Entry: 2985–3010

Target: 2920–2885

Stop Loss: Above 3045

If it effectively stabilizes above 3030+, the short position strategy will be invalid.

Currently, it is a range-bound fluctuating market, do not bet on a one-sided movement. Until it breaks through 3030–3050 or falls below 2860, maintain a high sell low buy range operation.
#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察

$US ambushed again to achieve a gain of over 40% and made profits again! The third order ambushed successfully! Next order!
#美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储降息

Many people think that the most difficult thing in the cryptocurrency market is to predict the market trends.

But when you actually get into it, you'll find that the easiest thing to mess up is actually withdrawing funds.

A few days ago, a friend who had been trading with me for over half a year got into trouble.

In the early morning, he converted 600,000 USDT to fiat currency through OTC, and within less than two hours of the money entering his account,

his mobile banking app directly prompted: Non-counter transactions are restricted.

The balance is still there, but the card is basically unusable:

slow transfers, limits locked, emotions crashing directly.

He said a very heart-wrenching thing:

He managed to withstand the big ups and downs in the market, but didn’t expect to fall at the step of "withdrawing funds."

Such things are not uncommon; it’s just that many people do not take them seriously.

The problem is not in the market, but in the funding path.

OTC is not as simple as point-to-point.

As long as a certain amount of funds in the chain is flagged (for fraud, money laundering, unusual circulation),

even if you are trading normally, you may be subjected to cooperative risk control.

Pay attention to two factual points:

✔ Risk control ≠ illegal

✔ In most cases, it can be resolved

But the cost is: time, energy, repeated cooperation, ranging from a few weeks to a few months.

So the focus is not on "what to do when something goes wrong,"

but rather on how to avoid problems as much as possible.

Here are three practical principles to avoid pitfalls:

First, use an OTC dedicated card

Completely separate from salary cards and living expense cards,

if there is a real issue, it won't affect basic living.

Second, only trade with established merchants

Long registration time, high transaction volume, low disputes.

Don’t take risks for a small price difference by dealing with new accounts; small bargains can be the most expensive.

Third, operational details must be stable

Large amounts in batches, operate during the day;

Wait 2–3 days after the funds arrive before taking any action;

Note down reasonable purposes.

In summary:

Knowing how to make money is a skill, but safely withdrawing money is a level of mastery.

Market performance tests cognition,

withdrawals test details.

Neglecting the last step renders all previous efforts futile.
#巨鲸动向

$PIPPIN I have seen the most exaggerated account curve:

With a principal of 5000 yuan, after half a year, it reached over a million.

But the more realistic side is——

$ZEC Some people made 500,000 the day before, then had a wave of retracement the next day, losing it all and going straight to zero.

This is not a joke; it happens every day in the cryptocurrency world.

$FHE Many people think the problem lies in technology, but the core issue is just one: not knowing how to roll or when to stop.

After stepping into countless pitfalls, I finally understood that rolling positions is not about trading every day, but only taking action during the most explosive market conditions.

Most people who incur losses in contracts lose for three reasons:

They enter during normal market conditions, they increase their positions aggressively after making a little profit, and they refuse to stop when retracement occurs.

Those who can really roll their positions are, in fact, very restrained.

My own rolling position logic is very simple and quite "against human nature":

First, make a profit on the first order and take out the principal

After the first profit, immediately withdraw the principal and use the profits to continue.

This way, even if there is a retracement, the loss is only the market's money, and the mindset is completely different.

Second, the more profit, the smaller the risk

When the position is profitable by 50%, raise the stop loss directly to the cost price;

If it continues to rise, at least lock in 30% of the profit as a safety cushion.

It's not about trying to earn to the limit, but about thinking "never go back to the starting point."

Third, only act when the opportunity arises

Rolling positions is not about frequency; it's about explosive potential.

Wait until the trend is clear and the volatility is sufficient, then decisively get on board;

If the market isn't right, it's better to stay out than to force a trade.

Many people aren't unable to make money; rather, they make money but can't hold onto it.

The real gap in the cryptocurrency world is never about who can seize opportunities, but about who can keep what they've earned.

Remember this phrase:

Those who can wait, take profits, and know when to stop, are the ones qualified to talk about doubling their investments.
#巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察

Have you noticed a strange phenomenon:

As soon as you enter the market, there's a callback, and as soon as you set a stop-loss, the price rises? $NIGHT

It's not just bad luck; it's because you're positioned incorrectly, just walking against the main force.

Many retail investors lose money, and the problem isn't in the technology but in not understanding the rhythm of capital. Let me break down the most commonly used "three-step" approach by the main force; if you understand this, at least you won't be repeatedly harvested.

Step 1: Rapid rise, creating emotion

Suddenly, a large bullish candle appears, breaking through key levels, and the chat groups and KOLs start to buzz. Retail investors are most likely to jump in at this step, but this is often when the main force is testing selling pressure and attracting liquidity.

Step 2: Pullback to wash out positions, clearing chips

Then comes a rapid drop, breaking through short-term support, triggering concentrated stop-loss orders. When emotions are at their lowest, it’s often the position for the main force to replenish their holdings.

Step 3: Secondary rise, confirming the trend

Once the positions are cleaned up, the price re-establishes itself within the key range, with volume and price expanding simultaneously, and the market truly starts. This phase is when the certainty is highest and the risk is lowest for profit.

Our choice is not to chase highs or guess bottoms, but to wait for the structure to complete, and for the rhythm to confirm before getting on board. Understanding how to avoid emotional zones and following the capital flow will make trading much easier.

The market is never short of opportunities; what's lacking are people who understand the rhythm. $WET

A person can easily be led by emotions; having a system and communication allows one to go further. $ETH

#美联储降息 #聊天室领奖 #加密市场观察

🔥Still toughing it out alone? Why not change your thinking.

Brother Guang's community doesn't rely on shouting slogans; it relies on early layout.

Recently, the two targets that were tipped to fans in advance, $NIGHT , $WET , have both shown significant increases,

with NIGHT surging over 60%, the rhythm is clear.

What we do is not chase the rise, but rather lay in ambush in advance + wait for the main force to exert.

The process may not be quick, but once it starts, the profit margin is very real.

Many people think the results are simple; the real difficulty lies in the early judgment and patience, which is precisely the value of the community.

If you also want to: take fewer detours; see opportunities in advance; use a system and rhythm, rather than emotional trading

you can follow me, the chat room is ready.

Together in this market, let's turn information asymmetry and execution power into real profits.
#美联储降息 #美联储FOMC会议 #美联储官员集体发声

People often ask me:

Can 3000 yuan be turned into 1 million by multiplying it by 100? $ZEC

To be honest, I thought about this question back in the day, but the answer is harsh——

Relying on 'steadily making a few points every day' is almost impossible to reach the finish line.

This is the cryptocurrency world, not a financial product. $HYPE

If you want to turn things around, it's never about small fluctuations, but rather big trends.

Most people lose money, and the problems are very concentrated:

Entering too hastily, jumping in without fully understanding the market;

Having too heavy a position, going all in with no way out;

Not setting stop losses, stubbornly holding on even when clearly wrong;

Only watching minute charts, getting washed out back and forth.

Those who can truly make money focus on the cycles.

They watch daily and weekly charts, waiting for trends to emerge, filtering out noise, and only capturing the main segments.

The short-term ups and downs don't count as opportunities in their eyes.

The larger the market, the bigger the fluctuations, but the prerequisite is——

Your capital and risk control must withstand such volatility.

Using a small amount of capital to gamble on large fluctuations is essentially just giving money away. $PIPPIN

So stop doubting your efforts,

Most of the time, it's about being wrong in the direction.

Remember three points:

Survive first, then talk about doubling;

Follow the cycles, don’t compete with the market;

Wait for the big trends, not for daily trades.

Bull markets are rare, but opportunities are only left for those who can persist until the end.

#聊天室领奖

For someone who has been doing contracts for a long time, returning to a normal life is actually very difficult. The challenge is not technical, but psychological. $PIPPIN

I have examples around me like this. At first, it was just a trial, with a small capital of 1500, and in two days it grew to tens of thousands. At that moment, it's easy for people to create an illusion: it's not the market giving it, it's 'my own ability.' Confidence rapidly expands while risk awareness simultaneously declines. $FHE

Later, heavy positions, leverage, and holding onto trades led to the account quickly reverting to its original state. But the problem is not losing money, but rather—people have already been conditioned to the rhythm. $TANSSI

Every day watching the market late into the night, saying they won't touch contracts, but the moment the market moves, they're the first to rush in. Because the essence of contracts is not investment, but speed and stimulation. High leverage amplifies emotions, and quick profits can lead the brain to mistakenly believe this is a 'shortcut.'

In contrast, stock fluctuations are slow, while the volatility of cryptocurrency contracts is extreme; it's not uncommon for values to double or be halved in a day. Once you've experienced that thrill, you'll repeatedly tell yourself: just once more, I can turn this around.

But the reality is often the opposite; most people don’t turn things around but are continuously liquidated until both their capital and spirit are exhausted.

The most terrifying aspect of contracts is not greed, but that it disconnects people from normal rhythms. It feels like having a very real dream, and when you wake up, the price has already been paid.

#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

Many people think that small funds cannot turn around, but I rolled 3000U into 600,000 within a year, relying not on luck, but on a set of "slow and steady" rolling system. $PIPPIN

In the early days, I also blew up my account; the problem was not the market, but greed and chaos. Later, I completely changed my approach: no gambling, no speculation, no holding, only doing replicable compound interest. $HYPE

There are only three core principles.

First, prioritize risk.

For every trade, set a stop-loss first, controlling it within an acceptable range based on current volatility. Do not withdraw or change the stop-loss; survive first before talking about making money.

Second, start with a light position and advance in batches.

The initial position should not exceed 15% of the principal; if the market moves in the right direction, add more, and if it moves in the wrong direction, stop-loss immediately. If the position is too tight and the rhythm is chaotic, the account will definitely die.

Third, profits must be withdrawn.

After every profit, prioritize taking out the principal or part of the profit, and only use "market money" to continue rolling. Cut off greed, and the mindset will naturally stabilize.

In hot market conditions, I only follow the trend and do not fantasize about hitting the top with a full position. When prices rise, lock in profits in batches, and when volatility increases, hedge with a small position. The goal is not to make a fortune, but to maintain consistency.

On this journey, there were no miracle trades, only repeated execution:

Review → Place Order → Stop-Loss → Withdraw Capital.

Turning small money into big relies on discipline and time, not courage. Only those who can remain steady have the qualification to reach the end. $PROMPT

#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

🔥#ETH Short position made profit again!

The main reason for the sharp decline of $ETH last night was the imminent interest rate hike by the yen, leading to a depletion of market liquidity. Panic selling in the US stock market triggered a drop across the entire financial market, compounded by negative news from the biggest KOL. Majie has increased its long position for the Nth time, recognized as a contrarian indicator in the market. Yesterday, Guangge guided fans in placing a short position at 3245, achieving 2000 oil profits when it dropped to 3175. Unfortunately, it was sold too early, but the profit was still decent! Continuous positioning is ongoing during the day. If you want to follow the strategy, there is a chat room with ID @阿广带单日记
#加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析 $GIGGLE $BOB

Can an ordinary person earn 500,000 a year in the crypto world? Is it possible? It's not about luck; it's about whether you can implement the "method". $PIPPIN

Those who can truly make stable profits have never relied on a gamble to get rich, but on strategy, timing, and execution. $BOB

01｜Market has cycles; making money relies on timing

Most people lose money because of emotional trading—chasing when prices rise and panicking when they fall.

But those who make money only do one thing: go with the trend.

Bull phase: Invest in mainstream coins steadily and take small positions in hot spots.

Mid-bull phase: Only do swing trading, sell high and buy low without being greedy.

Bear phase: Lock in profits first; cash is king.

Capturing two or three trends in a year,

Turning 100,000 into 500,000 is not a pipe dream.

02｜The core of small capital is not getting rich but surviving first

In the 50,000 to 100,000 capital stage, there’s no need to fantasize about hundredfold coins.

First, solidify your fundamentals:

Can analyze structures: uptrends, pullbacks, reversals

Can analyze ranges: support, resistance, breakthroughs

Can analyze funds: main force flow, turnover strength

Can manage risks: position size, stop-loss, take-profit

If capital isn’t preserved, everything is empty talk.

03｜Returns come from systems, not from a single stroke of luck

Many people lose not because their trading is poor, but because they fundamentally have "no system".

You just need to choose a profit model that suits you and then execute it repeatedly:

Trend-based investment

Hotspot rotation

Range oscillation strategy

Indicator resonance buy/sell points

Every trade must meet the "three clarities":

Why buy, where to buy, and where to exit if it drops.

Trading without a plan is essentially gambling.

04｜The system should be comprehensive, not relying on a single method to confront the market

A mature framework should look like this:

Main uptrend captures the mainstream trend, cash out at 30-50%

30% of capital participating in airdrops/new launches/on-chain projects for incremental gains

When the trend is clear, use ≤10% of capital for contracts to amplify returns

Max drawdown controlled within 5%

Doing this allows you to enjoy profits and live long.

Rely on timing, rules, and execution, not luck.

As long as you can form a system based on "stability, accuracy, and decisiveness", earning 500,000 a year is not a dream, but a matter of time. $GIGGLE
#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析