欧鹏

On the daily chart, the $IWM black short-term moving average has crossed below the blue 60-day medium-term moving average and the red 120-day long-term moving average. The moving averages have converged, and are now spreading out in a bearish formation. Historically, after the moving averages converge and then spread out bearishly, declines tend to continue for a while rather than reverse immediately.

From a trend-trading perspective, I’d prefer to wait for the decline to run its course. A better entry point would be when the price climbs back above all the moving averages, which then converge again and spread out in a bullish formation. The moving averages are still bearishly aligned, and although the price is low, the chart structure hasn’t yet given a clear reversal signal.

For now, I’m just watching to see whether it can find support during this pullback and climb back above the moving averages.
Do you think IWM will rebound from here, or will the decline extend further?

On the daily chart, BTC is currently at a key short-term turning point.
Price is hovering near the short-term moving averages. If it can get back above the black 20-day moving average, the moving averages will once again form a bullish alignment, giving the bulls the upper hand and making it easier for price to break higher.
On the other hand, if price continues to trade below the 20-day moving average, the short-term outlook will remain weak, and the pullback may continue. This is a key area to watch as bulls and bears battle for control, and the direction is not yet clear.
Do you think this move can get back above the 20-day moving average and form a bullish alignment again at $BTC ?

SpaceX’s Q3 results beat expectations, with revenue surging 161% year over year to $14.58 billion and net profit turning positive at $4.4 billion. Its AI superintelligence cloud business generated $7.6 billion in a single quarter. On the earnings call, Musk said computing capacity could exceed 13 gigawatts next year, ARR could reach $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027, and the payback period on computing investments has already shortened to less than a year.
$SPCX U.S. shares closed near $147 and climbed to around $160 overnight. The price has recovered from its previous low and is currently trading near its medium- and long-term moving averages. The stock reacted to the better-than-expected results overnight, but in the short term, we still need to watch whether it can hold firmly above these levels and move back above the moving averages.
The market currently has high expectations for demand for AI computing power. SpaceX is committing substantial resources to building ground-based computing infrastructure, with electricity and cooling emerging as the main bottlenecks. If the company can continue delivering on its computing expansion and ARR targets, there could be room for further upside. On the other hand, if expansion falls short of expectations, the price may continue to consolidate around current levels.

Do you think the overnight rally after SPCX’s results can continue, or will the stock need to pull back and retest support first?

$XMR is also holding strong—it’s been rising since early August and still hasn’t pulled back.
Is 600 a short-term peak now❓❓

Crypto-related stocks rebound in premarket; Bitcoin climbs above 82,800‼️
In U.S. premarket trading, $MSTR , $COIN , and $CRCL all moved higher, while Bitcoin also returned to around 82,800.
After breaking out from their lows, MSTR and Bitcoin have steadily retreated from their highs. MSTR is still trading below its short-term moving averages but above its long-term moving averages. It returned to around 139 in premarket trading, though it still has a long way to go to reach its previous high. COIN and CRCL show a similar pattern: both have continued to pull back from their highs and have recently traded in a range near their lows. They edged up slightly in premarket trading, largely tracking the improvement in sentiment around Bitcoin.
As for Bitcoin, its price has returned to 82,800, but remains below the key 85,000 level. The chart shows that the area around 85,000 has been a clear resistance zone recently. If Bitcoin cannot hold above it, upside will be limited; if it breaks through and holds, that could drive a further recovery in crypto-related stocks.
The three stocks currently share a common feature: their long-term downtrends have ended. Bitcoin’s price action remains the key variable, and the stocks’ upside potential depends on whether Bitcoin can hold above the key level of $85,000.

Based on the $BTC 1 weekly liquidation heatmap, I’m personally leaning bullish.
The current price is around 81,500, while the most prominent yellow liquidation clusters are concentrated above 84,000, with another band around 83,200–83,500. These levels correspond to liquidation points for a large number of short positions. If the price moves up toward these areas, forced buy-to-cover orders could provide fuel and push it even higher.

After recently pulling back from around 84k, the price has stabilized in the 81k–82k range. Liquidation density below is relatively low, suggesting that a round of long positions has already been flushed out. The current structure looks more like it’s building momentum to move higher and sweep up this short-side liquidity.

Of course, this is just my personal observation based on the heatmap. The actual price action will also depend on buying pressure and macro sentiment. If the price can decisively break above 82k and approach the 84k area, the odds of an upward liquidation move will increase; if it drops below 81k again, the outlook will need to be reassessed.

U.S. stocks plunged last night after CPI came in hotter than expected (S&P 500 -1.1%, Nasdaq nearly -2%). South Korean stocks continued to weaken after the market opened today, with both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ eventually triggering circuit breakers. Crypto markets came under pressure as well, with BTC and ETH posting notable pullbacks on the daily chart.
Looking at my daily chart of the dual moving-average structure, this pullback from the highs has not disrupted the long-term uptrend, and the longer-term outlook remains bullish. ETH rebounded for a time after its earlier retreat from the highs. Although it has pulled back again this time amid the macro shock, the long-term uptrend has not been fully undermined as long as this pullback does not decisively break below all key moving averages. Short-term bullish momentum has weakened, making this a technical correction amid a macro shock rather than a trend reversal.

The dynamics are consistent with the correlation between U.S. tech stocks and heavyweight South Korean semiconductor stocks:

Inflation data has pushed up rate expectations, while concerns are mounting over returns on AI capital expenditure and financing costs, weighing on risk assets overall. As a high-beta asset, ETH is more sensitive to interest rates and risk appetite, while crowded derivatives positions have further amplified price volatility.

🔵In the short term, macro data and derivatives liquidations are reinforcing each other, and prices remain in a correction phase. If inflation expectations continue to rise or risk appetite fails to recover, downward pressure may persist;
🟢Conversely, if U.S. Treasury yields retreat, market sentiment stabilizes, and prices hold above key moving-average support, a rebound could also gain momentum quickly.
For now, the focus is on observing the market. Key things to track include subsequent interpretations of CPI, the Fed's policy path, changes in on-chain and derivatives positioning, and whether moving-average support holds.
$BTC $ETH (Bitcoin is now at 81565; Ethereum at 2372)