欧鹏同学
Occasional Trader
1.8 Years
全职加密交易员｜深耕二级市场｜币安广场每晚21点直播｜弱小和无知不是交易障碍 傲慢才是 ｜🐧84367686｜手续费8折优惠邀请码 GMD9BQ4C ｜公众号：加密十分钟｜
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You think trading relies on techniques, but in fact, trading relies on 'human'.
Many people ask me, Oupeng, can you teach me a 'sure-win' trading system, can you give me the 'most accurate' indicator? They think the essence of trading is the technique itself.
But I must say something from the heart:
Techniques are just 'Shu'; what truly determines success or failure is 'human'.
You must remember one thing —
Among the five levels of Dao, Fa, Shu, Qi, and Ji,
'Qi' is the state, 'Ji' is the tool, 'Shu' is the technique, 'Fa' is the method, and 'Dao' is the essence.
And techniques are the easiest to replicate.
But I must say something from the heart:
Techniques are just 'Shu'; what truly determines success or failure is 'human'.
You must remember one thing —
Among the five levels of Dao, Fa, Shu, Qi, and Ji,
'Qi' is the state, 'Ji' is the tool, 'Shu' is the technique, 'Fa' is the method, and 'Dao' is the essence.
And techniques are the easiest to replicate.
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【Cryptocurrency Knowledge Simplification 60 Lectures】50: Bitcoin Second Fork, Hash Power Battle
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009｜Short-term, segment, long-term: which one suits you best?
There is no 'best cycle', only the 'cycle that suits you best'
Many people make a mistake in their first step when they start learning trading. They immediately ask:
'Brother Peng, is short-term trading more profitable?'
'Is segment trading more stable?'
'Is long-term holding the most worry-free?'
The result is——
I can't clearly say which one suits me best,
Yet I jump back and forth between three styles every day:
In the morning, I want to be a short-term sniper
At noon, I want to learn how to trade in segments
In the evening, seeing long-term big bull cases, I want to 'hold on for a main upward wave'
The final actual effect is only one:
Many people make a mistake in their first step when they start learning trading. They immediately ask:
'Brother Peng, is short-term trading more profitable?'
'Is segment trading more stable?'
'Is long-term holding the most worry-free?'
The result is——
I can't clearly say which one suits me best,
Yet I jump back and forth between three styles every day:
In the morning, I want to be a short-term sniper
At noon, I want to learn how to trade in segments
In the evening, seeing long-term big bull cases, I want to 'hold on for a main upward wave'
The final actual effect is only one:
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BNB 4-hour cycle long position has been opened! The BNB has stabilized around 890 on the 4-hour cycle, and the current price has surpassed the 20/60/120 market cost lines. ⚠️ At the same time, the same structure of ETH on the 4-hour cycle is also bullish!! December 8, 2025, 09:40:42
$BNB
$ETH
$BNB
$ETH
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BCH 4-hour bearish outlook
December 7, 2025 23:16:42
$BCH
December 7, 2025 23:16:42
$BCH
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12.05 released on Binance Square 4-hour cycle XMR short position, have you held on?
Live stream at 21:00 on Binance Square, watch the market, analyze the trends, free market viewing, waiting for you ❤
$XMR
Live stream at 21:00 on Binance Square, watch the market, analyze the trends, free market viewing, waiting for you ❤
$XMR
4-hour cycle opened a short position on XMR, with the previous high around 430. After that, the highs gradually decreased, and the recent K-line patterns have mostly been upper shadows with smaller bodies, a typical sign of momentum decay + high-level fluctuations. The segment on the left, which pulled up from 320, left a series of upward FVGs, and now the price is consolidating at the upper edge. Once the price breaks down, it will fill the FVG areas below.
This position was actually chosen among XMR, KAS, and CAKE, which was difficult to decide, but ultimately the 1-hour cycle favored a short position on XMR, while KAS and CAKE were also bearish. $XMR
{future}(XMRUSDT)
$KAS
{future}(KASUSDT)
$CAKE
{future}(CAKEUSDT)
This position was actually chosen among XMR, KAS, and CAKE, which was difficult to decide, but ultimately the 1-hour cycle favored a short position on XMR, while KAS and CAKE were also bearish. $XMR
{future}(XMRUSDT)
$KAS
{future}(KASUSDT)
$CAKE
{future}(CAKEUSDT)
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008｜Why can different people come to completely opposite conclusions from the same candlestick chart?
You must have seen this scene:
You are staring at a 4-hour candlestick chart, thinking 'it's about to take off'
A friend looked at the same chart and said, 'It's over, it's going to collapse'
Someone in the group posted a chart: one says 'the bullish trend has just begun', while another says 'shorting at this position is a sure profit'
In the end, you are confused:
'There's only one chart, how can everyone create a universe out of it?'
Today we will thoroughly discuss this issue:
Why can different people come to completely opposite conclusions from the same market chart?
And as a trading novice, who should you follow?
1. The market chart itself carries no conclusions, only information
You are staring at a 4-hour candlestick chart, thinking 'it's about to take off'
A friend looked at the same chart and said, 'It's over, it's going to collapse'
Someone in the group posted a chart: one says 'the bullish trend has just begun', while another says 'shorting at this position is a sure profit'
In the end, you are confused:
'There's only one chart, how can everyone create a universe out of it?'
Today we will thoroughly discuss this issue:
Why can different people come to completely opposite conclusions from the same market chart?
And as a trading novice, who should you follow?
1. The market chart itself carries no conclusions, only information
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【Cryptocurrency Knowledge Enlightenment 60 Lectures】49: In 2018, the De-bubbling of Blockchain
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The NEAR long position posted on Binance Square three hours ago has already taken off🛫
$NEAR
$NEAR
NEAR I took a long position near 1.709 during a 4-hour cycle, simply laying out my thoughts to inspire discussion. 1. NEAR had a long bearish candle that directly dropped from above 1.8 to around 1.6. The green FVG area marked on the chart is the 'cheap chip area' left by this downturn, which can also be understood as a short-term demand zone. 2. Recently, during a wave of bottom testing: the price dropped to near the bottom of the green FVG area, showing a lower shadow + increased volume to stop the decline; simultaneously, the TD count signals of 9 and 13 overlaying the bottom indicate that the energy after continuous decline has begun to deplete, and the cost-effectiveness of shorts in this range is decreasing.
3. The current K-line structure: higher lows, starting to bounce back from the previous low; the current price has returned above 1.70, beginning the action of 'leaving the demand zone to move up.' Therefore, I entered long near 1.709, essentially: betting on a rebound to fill the upper red FVG (range 1.75–1.88) under the resonance of the 4-hour demand zone + TD bottom signal.
4. Looking at the 1-hour chart: previously, there was a continuous downward pressure along the short-term moving average, a typical bearish trend; recently, after the price consolidated at the bottom for a short period, a relatively full bullish candle appeared, which first pierced the short-term moving average ribbon; this indicates a shift from 'rolling down with the moving average' to 'first consolidating → attempting to break through the moving average.' This is crucial for me: the 4-hour already has a support logic, and the 1-hour provides a local reversal signal with the moving average turning up + the price standing above the moving average, which is when I am willing to enter at 1.709, rather than blindly catching a falling knife during the decline.
$NEAR
{future}(NEARUSDT)
3. The current K-line structure: higher lows, starting to bounce back from the previous low; the current price has returned above 1.70, beginning the action of 'leaving the demand zone to move up.' Therefore, I entered long near 1.709, essentially: betting on a rebound to fill the upper red FVG (range 1.75–1.88) under the resonance of the 4-hour demand zone + TD bottom signal.
4. Looking at the 1-hour chart: previously, there was a continuous downward pressure along the short-term moving average, a typical bearish trend; recently, after the price consolidated at the bottom for a short period, a relatively full bullish candle appeared, which first pierced the short-term moving average ribbon; this indicates a shift from 'rolling down with the moving average' to 'first consolidating → attempting to break through the moving average.' This is crucial for me: the 4-hour already has a support logic, and the 1-hour provides a local reversal signal with the moving average turning up + the price standing above the moving average, which is when I am willing to enter at 1.709, rather than blindly catching a falling knife during the decline.
$NEAR
{future}(NEARUSDT)
See original
The specific trading plan (my personal one) is just sharing my execution plan, not asking everyone to follow blindly.
Entry:
I have entered long positions in batches around 1.709.
Defense / Stop-loss:
The main defense is placed below the recent 4-hour low, which is the bottom edge of the green FVG area, roughly around 1.63–1.62;
As long as a medium bearish candle in 4 hours breaks through this range directly, I will decisively admit defeat and exit, indicating that the demand below could not hold, and this is not a good defense position.
⚠️ Target One (T1):
The nearest upper red FVG area, around 1.75–1.77.
This is the starting point of the previous accelerated decline and also the first supply zone in 4 hours:
When the price reaches here, I will first reduce half of my position, adjust the stop-loss to near the cost price, turning this trade into a "risk-free position."
⚠️ Target Two (T2):
If BTC and mainstream coins have a strong overall atmosphere, and NEAR can stabilize above 1.75 without quickly dropping back, I will look towards the second upper red FVG area, roughly 1.82–1.88.
This is the main target area I can accept for this rebound, and any further upward space will be left to the market to choose.
⚠️ Risk Control Details:
For this trade, I will control the overall position to a small part of the total strategy funds, because the overall trend direction is still a downward adjustment;
If during the process, a 1-hour candle shows volume surge and then immediately drops back, falling back below 1.69, I will consider reducing my position or closing out early, to avoid a rebound turning into consolidation and then downward.
💗What I want to show everyone behind this trade
This is not an emotional trade of "I think the price has dropped too much, so I'll gamble it will rise," but rather:
First, find the defense position:
The 4-hour green FVG demand area + recent low point is my defined defense position.
With a suitable defense position, I have the qualification to calculate the risk-reward ratio.
Then find resonance:
Bottom TD9/13, lower shadow line stopping decline, changes in trading volume;
The 1-hour level changes from "moving average suppression" to "standing back on the moving average."
Finally, it’s the entry:
When the price reaches 1.709, support is confirmed, and resonance is in place, then I will enter, rather than jumping in early based on feeling.
Many beginners do the opposite:
They rush in first, then look back for reasons, and then get kicked out by the stop-loss, finally blaming the market for the "stop-loss."
Lastly, remember to trade seriously.
$NEAR
Entry:
I have entered long positions in batches around 1.709.
Defense / Stop-loss:
The main defense is placed below the recent 4-hour low, which is the bottom edge of the green FVG area, roughly around 1.63–1.62;
As long as a medium bearish candle in 4 hours breaks through this range directly, I will decisively admit defeat and exit, indicating that the demand below could not hold, and this is not a good defense position.
⚠️ Target One (T1):
The nearest upper red FVG area, around 1.75–1.77.
This is the starting point of the previous accelerated decline and also the first supply zone in 4 hours:
When the price reaches here, I will first reduce half of my position, adjust the stop-loss to near the cost price, turning this trade into a "risk-free position."
⚠️ Target Two (T2):
If BTC and mainstream coins have a strong overall atmosphere, and NEAR can stabilize above 1.75 without quickly dropping back, I will look towards the second upper red FVG area, roughly 1.82–1.88.
This is the main target area I can accept for this rebound, and any further upward space will be left to the market to choose.
⚠️ Risk Control Details:
For this trade, I will control the overall position to a small part of the total strategy funds, because the overall trend direction is still a downward adjustment;
If during the process, a 1-hour candle shows volume surge and then immediately drops back, falling back below 1.69, I will consider reducing my position or closing out early, to avoid a rebound turning into consolidation and then downward.
💗What I want to show everyone behind this trade
This is not an emotional trade of "I think the price has dropped too much, so I'll gamble it will rise," but rather:
First, find the defense position:
The 4-hour green FVG demand area + recent low point is my defined defense position.
With a suitable defense position, I have the qualification to calculate the risk-reward ratio.
Then find resonance:
Bottom TD9/13, lower shadow line stopping decline, changes in trading volume;
The 1-hour level changes from "moving average suppression" to "standing back on the moving average."
Finally, it’s the entry:
When the price reaches 1.709, support is confirmed, and resonance is in place, then I will enter, rather than jumping in early based on feeling.
Many beginners do the opposite:
They rush in first, then look back for reasons, and then get kicked out by the stop-loss, finally blaming the market for the "stop-loss."
Lastly, remember to trade seriously.
$NEAR
NEAR I took a long position near 1.709 during a 4-hour cycle, simply laying out my thoughts to inspire discussion. 1. NEAR had a long bearish candle that directly dropped from above 1.8 to around 1.6. The green FVG area marked on the chart is the 'cheap chip area' left by this downturn, which can also be understood as a short-term demand zone. 2. Recently, during a wave of bottom testing: the price dropped to near the bottom of the green FVG area, showing a lower shadow + increased volume to stop the decline; simultaneously, the TD count signals of 9 and 13 overlaying the bottom indicate that the energy after continuous decline has begun to deplete, and the cost-effectiveness of shorts in this range is decreasing.
3. The current K-line structure: higher lows, starting to bounce back from the previous low; the current price has returned above 1.70, beginning the action of 'leaving the demand zone to move up.' Therefore, I entered long near 1.709, essentially: betting on a rebound to fill the upper red FVG (range 1.75–1.88) under the resonance of the 4-hour demand zone + TD bottom signal.
4. Looking at the 1-hour chart: previously, there was a continuous downward pressure along the short-term moving average, a typical bearish trend; recently, after the price consolidated at the bottom for a short period, a relatively full bullish candle appeared, which first pierced the short-term moving average ribbon; this indicates a shift from 'rolling down with the moving average' to 'first consolidating → attempting to break through the moving average.' This is crucial for me: the 4-hour already has a support logic, and the 1-hour provides a local reversal signal with the moving average turning up + the price standing above the moving average, which is when I am willing to enter at 1.709, rather than blindly catching a falling knife during the decline.
$NEAR
{future}(NEARUSDT)
3. The current K-line structure: higher lows, starting to bounce back from the previous low; the current price has returned above 1.70, beginning the action of 'leaving the demand zone to move up.' Therefore, I entered long near 1.709, essentially: betting on a rebound to fill the upper red FVG (range 1.75–1.88) under the resonance of the 4-hour demand zone + TD bottom signal.
4. Looking at the 1-hour chart: previously, there was a continuous downward pressure along the short-term moving average, a typical bearish trend; recently, after the price consolidated at the bottom for a short period, a relatively full bullish candle appeared, which first pierced the short-term moving average ribbon; this indicates a shift from 'rolling down with the moving average' to 'first consolidating → attempting to break through the moving average.' This is crucial for me: the 4-hour already has a support logic, and the 1-hour provides a local reversal signal with the moving average turning up + the price standing above the moving average, which is when I am willing to enter at 1.709, rather than blindly catching a falling knife during the decline.
$NEAR
{future}(NEARUSDT)
See original
NEAR I took a long position near 1.709 during a 4-hour cycle, simply laying out my thoughts to inspire discussion. 1. NEAR had a long bearish candle that directly dropped from above 1.8 to around 1.6. The green FVG area marked on the chart is the 'cheap chip area' left by this downturn, which can also be understood as a short-term demand zone. 2. Recently, during a wave of bottom testing: the price dropped to near the bottom of the green FVG area, showing a lower shadow + increased volume to stop the decline; simultaneously, the TD count signals of 9 and 13 overlaying the bottom indicate that the energy after continuous decline has begun to deplete, and the cost-effectiveness of shorts in this range is decreasing.
3. The current K-line structure: higher lows, starting to bounce back from the previous low; the current price has returned above 1.70, beginning the action of 'leaving the demand zone to move up.' Therefore, I entered long near 1.709, essentially: betting on a rebound to fill the upper red FVG (range 1.75–1.88) under the resonance of the 4-hour demand zone + TD bottom signal.
4. Looking at the 1-hour chart: previously, there was a continuous downward pressure along the short-term moving average, a typical bearish trend; recently, after the price consolidated at the bottom for a short period, a relatively full bullish candle appeared, which first pierced the short-term moving average ribbon; this indicates a shift from 'rolling down with the moving average' to 'first consolidating → attempting to break through the moving average.' This is crucial for me: the 4-hour already has a support logic, and the 1-hour provides a local reversal signal with the moving average turning up + the price standing above the moving average, which is when I am willing to enter at 1.709, rather than blindly catching a falling knife during the decline.
$NEAR
3. The current K-line structure: higher lows, starting to bounce back from the previous low; the current price has returned above 1.70, beginning the action of 'leaving the demand zone to move up.' Therefore, I entered long near 1.709, essentially: betting on a rebound to fill the upper red FVG (range 1.75–1.88) under the resonance of the 4-hour demand zone + TD bottom signal.
4. Looking at the 1-hour chart: previously, there was a continuous downward pressure along the short-term moving average, a typical bearish trend; recently, after the price consolidated at the bottom for a short period, a relatively full bullish candle appeared, which first pierced the short-term moving average ribbon; this indicates a shift from 'rolling down with the moving average' to 'first consolidating → attempting to break through the moving average.' This is crucial for me: the 4-hour already has a support logic, and the 1-hour provides a local reversal signal with the moving average turning up + the price standing above the moving average, which is when I am willing to enter at 1.709, rather than blindly catching a falling knife during the decline.
$NEAR
See original
007｜Who is your opponent? Are retail traders really just 'victims'? In the market, are you the opposing plate or someone else's source of profit?
Almost everyone who enters the market has been scared by a phrase:
'Stop it, retail traders come in to be victims.'
After listening for a while, you can easily picture a scene:
It seems that on the other side of the screen, there is a group of big shots specifically watching your orders and opposing you.
But the truth is not that simple.
It can even be said —
If you define yourself as a 'born victim,'
then you have already lost half in this game.
In today's article, we will discuss a question that many people have never thought clearly about:
Who is really on the opposite side of you?
Can retail traders really only be harvested?
'Stop it, retail traders come in to be victims.'
After listening for a while, you can easily picture a scene:
It seems that on the other side of the screen, there is a group of big shots specifically watching your orders and opposing you.
But the truth is not that simple.
It can even be said —
If you define yourself as a 'born victim,'
then you have already lost half in this game.
In today's article, we will discuss a question that many people have never thought clearly about:
Who is really on the opposite side of you?
Can retail traders really only be harvested?
See original
【Cryptocurrency Knowledge Primer 60 Lectures】48: The History of Bitcoin Forks $BTC
See original
4-hour cycle opened a short position on XMR, with the previous high around 430. After that, the highs gradually decreased, and the recent K-line patterns have mostly been upper shadows with smaller bodies, a typical sign of momentum decay + high-level fluctuations. The segment on the left, which pulled up from 320, left a series of upward FVGs, and now the price is consolidating at the upper edge. Once the price breaks down, it will fill the FVG areas below.
This position was actually chosen among XMR, KAS, and CAKE, which was difficult to decide, but ultimately the 1-hour cycle favored a short position on XMR, while KAS and CAKE were also bearish. $XMR
$KAS
$CAKE
This position was actually chosen among XMR, KAS, and CAKE, which was difficult to decide, but ultimately the 1-hour cycle favored a short position on XMR, while KAS and CAKE were also bearish. $XMR
$KAS
$CAKE
See original
Why, in such a strong market, do you end up gambling more and panicking? The better the market, the easier it is for people to lose control: the three most dangerous actions in a bull phase
Many people tell me the same thing:
"Brother Peng, the market is so good right now, yet I dare not act; once I take a position, I panic."
Or a more realistic version:
"Clearly it's a bull market, but as I make profits, in the end, I either give it all back or incur losses."
It sounds contradictory, right:
The stronger the market rises, the more excited you should be, yet you end up gambling more and panicking.
In today's article, let's break this down:
In a bull market, what exactly are you afraid of?
What operations turned a 'good market' into 'high-stakes gambling'?
"Brother Peng, the market is so good right now, yet I dare not act; once I take a position, I panic."
Or a more realistic version:
"Clearly it's a bull market, but as I make profits, in the end, I either give it all back or incur losses."
It sounds contradictory, right:
The stronger the market rises, the more excited you should be, yet you end up gambling more and panicking.
In today's article, let's break this down:
In a bull market, what exactly are you afraid of?
What operations turned a 'good market' into 'high-stakes gambling'?
See original
Whether it's the BNB short position released the day before yesterday at Binance Square, the LINK short position from last night's live stream, or the PEPE short position from this morning's live stream, all three positions were accurate!!
Tonight at 21:00 in the Binance Square live stream, we will continue to broadcast orders, monitor the market, and discuss trading systems.
$BNB
$LINK
$PEPE
Tonight at 21:00 in the Binance Square live stream, we will continue to broadcast orders, monitor the market, and discuss trading systems.
$BNB
$LINK
$PEPE
From the market perspective, the BNB 4-hour K: TD indicator has reached 13, which is in a typical overbought range; it just hit the level resistance around the previous high. The red box drawn above represents the previous accumulation area; the latest K has formed a significant upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above, and bulls are starting to hesitate here.
At this position, chasing long positions is no longer cost-effective. It may be worth considering a light position to bet on a counter-trend short, with the idea being: the BNB 4-hour cycle has reached the previous high resistance area, TD has reached 13, and it is overbought in the short term. The long upper shadow above also indicates that chips are being continuously sold off. At this position, I personally choose to try a short position with a light load, placing the stop loss above the effective breakout of the resistance area. If there is a continued breakout with increased volume, I will admit defeat and exit; if the price pulls back in line with the trend, I will first look at the recent FVG area as the primary target for a rebound.
This trade is purely a short position betting on a correction at a high level; it is not a trend reversal signal, so position size and stop loss must be well-controlled.
Similarly structured markets include: SOL, ADA, AVAX, SHIB, TON
$BNB
{future}(BNBUSDT)
$SOL
{future}(SOLUSDT)
$ADA
{future}(ADAUSDT)
At this position, chasing long positions is no longer cost-effective. It may be worth considering a light position to bet on a counter-trend short, with the idea being: the BNB 4-hour cycle has reached the previous high resistance area, TD has reached 13, and it is overbought in the short term. The long upper shadow above also indicates that chips are being continuously sold off. At this position, I personally choose to try a short position with a light load, placing the stop loss above the effective breakout of the resistance area. If there is a continued breakout with increased volume, I will admit defeat and exit; if the price pulls back in line with the trend, I will first look at the recent FVG area as the primary target for a rebound.
This trade is purely a short position betting on a correction at a high level; it is not a trend reversal signal, so position size and stop loss must be well-controlled.
Similarly structured markets include: SOL, ADA, AVAX, SHIB, TON
$BNB
{future}(BNBUSDT)
$SOL
{future}(SOLUSDT)
$ADA
{future}(ADAUSDT)
See original
[Cryptocurrency Knowledge Demystified 60 Lectures] 47: The 'Blockchain Revolution' of 2017
See original
Last night, the ASTER short position in the live broadcast room was closed for profit. First, the US stock market is rising before the opening. Second, there are more short opportunities tonight. At 21:00, we will monitor the market again in the Binance Square live broadcast room to look for opportunities. Those who are patient and willing to learn systematically from scratch are welcome.
ASTER 4-hour cycle, currently the overall structure is still a technical rebound after a decline. The previous wave dropped from 1.30 all the way to 0.88, and the recent rise only filled the gap and chips left by the previous decline, without truly changing the major trend.
1️⃣ Position: Rebound to the previous short-seller main battlefield
The black horizontal line on the chart (around 1.08) is the position where the previous consolidation broke down; the current price has just reacted back to here.
From the left side of the chip distribution, it can be seen that the area around 1.05–1.08 is a dense transaction zone, and there are many trapped chips above, making it easy to encounter selling pressure when rebounding.
The price has been continuously dipping near this black line and cannot go up, which indicates that this is temporarily a relatively clear short-seller defense position.
I chose to go short at 1.056, which is a typical example of 'rebounding to the previous support turning resistance' to enter short, with a more comfortable risk-reward ratio.
2️⃣ Signal: Weak upward momentum + Indicator divergence
The 4-hour chart has already produced a TD9 sell signal, indicating that the upward momentum of this rebound shows signs of weakening.
Although the MACD below is still above the zero axis, the bars have already begun to shorten. The price has made new highs, but the momentum has not kept up, which is a typical case of momentum divergence.
Increased volume decline, decreased volume rebound: This wave has risen from 0.88 to 1.08, and the overall trading volume is 'price up volume down', indicating more of a short covering + short-term capital game, rather than sustained large capital taking over.
Combining these factors, I tend to interpret this rise as a pullback in a bear market rebound rather than a new round of major upward wave.
3️⃣ Lower target: Prioritize looking at the FVG area for filling
The chart shows a few layers of light green FVG (price imbalance zone) below:
First target area: The upper edge of the FVG around 1.00–0.99, which is the profit-taking area I first focus on for this trade;
Second target area: The FVG around 0.97–0.95, if market sentiment weakens further, there is a chance to fill back here;
Extreme situation: If BTC and the overall market weaken together later, the FVG near 0.93 below may also be filled, which would belong to the extended target of this trade, not to be taken all at once, but will be reduced gradually.
Shorting this type of rebound structure, the idea is: prioritize taking the 'gap filling' section, the rest is the market's reward, do not force it.
$ASTER
{future}(ASTERUSDT)
1️⃣ Position: Rebound to the previous short-seller main battlefield
The black horizontal line on the chart (around 1.08) is the position where the previous consolidation broke down; the current price has just reacted back to here.
From the left side of the chip distribution, it can be seen that the area around 1.05–1.08 is a dense transaction zone, and there are many trapped chips above, making it easy to encounter selling pressure when rebounding.
The price has been continuously dipping near this black line and cannot go up, which indicates that this is temporarily a relatively clear short-seller defense position.
I chose to go short at 1.056, which is a typical example of 'rebounding to the previous support turning resistance' to enter short, with a more comfortable risk-reward ratio.
2️⃣ Signal: Weak upward momentum + Indicator divergence
The 4-hour chart has already produced a TD9 sell signal, indicating that the upward momentum of this rebound shows signs of weakening.
Although the MACD below is still above the zero axis, the bars have already begun to shorten. The price has made new highs, but the momentum has not kept up, which is a typical case of momentum divergence.
Increased volume decline, decreased volume rebound: This wave has risen from 0.88 to 1.08, and the overall trading volume is 'price up volume down', indicating more of a short covering + short-term capital game, rather than sustained large capital taking over.
Combining these factors, I tend to interpret this rise as a pullback in a bear market rebound rather than a new round of major upward wave.
3️⃣ Lower target: Prioritize looking at the FVG area for filling
The chart shows a few layers of light green FVG (price imbalance zone) below:
First target area: The upper edge of the FVG around 1.00–0.99, which is the profit-taking area I first focus on for this trade;
Second target area: The FVG around 0.97–0.95, if market sentiment weakens further, there is a chance to fill back here;
Extreme situation: If BTC and the overall market weaken together later, the FVG near 0.93 below may also be filled, which would belong to the extended target of this trade, not to be taken all at once, but will be reduced gradually.
Shorting this type of rebound structure, the idea is: prioritize taking the 'gap filling' section, the rest is the market's reward, do not force it.
$ASTER
{future}(ASTERUSDT)
See original
From the market perspective, the BNB 4-hour K: TD indicator has reached 13, which is in a typical overbought range; it just hit the level resistance around the previous high. The red box drawn above represents the previous accumulation area; the latest K has formed a significant upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above, and bulls are starting to hesitate here.
At this position, chasing long positions is no longer cost-effective. It may be worth considering a light position to bet on a counter-trend short, with the idea being: the BNB 4-hour cycle has reached the previous high resistance area, TD has reached 13, and it is overbought in the short term. The long upper shadow above also indicates that chips are being continuously sold off. At this position, I personally choose to try a short position with a light load, placing the stop loss above the effective breakout of the resistance area. If there is a continued breakout with increased volume, I will admit defeat and exit; if the price pulls back in line with the trend, I will first look at the recent FVG area as the primary target for a rebound.
This trade is purely a short position betting on a correction at a high level; it is not a trend reversal signal, so position size and stop loss must be well-controlled.
Similarly structured markets include: SOL, ADA, AVAX, SHIB, TON
$BNB
$SOL
$ADA
At this position, chasing long positions is no longer cost-effective. It may be worth considering a light position to bet on a counter-trend short, with the idea being: the BNB 4-hour cycle has reached the previous high resistance area, TD has reached 13, and it is overbought in the short term. The long upper shadow above also indicates that chips are being continuously sold off. At this position, I personally choose to try a short position with a light load, placing the stop loss above the effective breakout of the resistance area. If there is a continued breakout with increased volume, I will admit defeat and exit; if the price pulls back in line with the trend, I will first look at the recent FVG area as the primary target for a rebound.
This trade is purely a short position betting on a correction at a high level; it is not a trend reversal signal, so position size and stop loss must be well-controlled.
Similarly structured markets include: SOL, ADA, AVAX, SHIB, TON
$BNB
$SOL
$ADA
See original
005｜Why do you think you are 'investing' when you are actually just 'chasing highs and cutting losses'?
Many people tell me:
'Peng Ge, I don’t do short-term trades; I'm here for long-term investment.'
the result shows his actual operation—
Can't help but chase after two days of rising.
Can't hold on and cut losses after two big down days.
The account curve is more thrilling than a roller coaster.
What you say is 'investment',
What you do is all about chasing highs and cutting losses.
In today’s article, let’s break this down:
What exactly is the difference between real 'investment' and what you're currently doing—'chasing highs and cutting losses'?
First, what does 'investment' mean? It's not just holding for a long time.
Many people think:
'I didn’t use high leverage; I held it longer than others; I'm investing.'
'Peng Ge, I don’t do short-term trades; I'm here for long-term investment.'
the result shows his actual operation—
Can't help but chase after two days of rising.
Can't hold on and cut losses after two big down days.
The account curve is more thrilling than a roller coaster.
What you say is 'investment',
What you do is all about chasing highs and cutting losses.
In today’s article, let’s break this down:
What exactly is the difference between real 'investment' and what you're currently doing—'chasing highs and cutting losses'?
First, what does 'investment' mean? It's not just holding for a long time.
Many people think:
'I didn’t use high leverage; I held it longer than others; I'm investing.'
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