Morita_k

Review summary:
The curve for the past week has looked really good, but in the end, it's all about making profits through anti-single Martingale, going from 509 to 1608.
In the past two weeks, it has also climbed up 8 times from the hellish 195.

Then tonight, I attended a Mid-Autumn dinner, and I had already made a floating profit of 10 * 1.3% at the dinner table.
However, due to the market fluctuations in the past few days, I felt that today would still drop to 1035, so I set the take-profit line at 1025, after all, the 4-hour line is steadily rising.
So out of impatience, I opened some positions again around 983, wanting to leverage up to 20 times. By the time I woke up from the alcohol around 11 o'clock, it was already at 976, and the stop-loss line was at 959.

In fact, I did incur some losses from the simultaneous long and short positions; if I hadn't opened both, the earlier profits would have been higher. So I didn't open a short position, reduced some leverage, but still had some luck mentality. After all, I lost, and still have 550 (capital position), but if I make a profit, I can pull it to 2450 in funds. However, the stop-loss slipped, and the balance is only 495. 😂, I should wash my face during this time.

【Key Point】 However, after a brief review just now, I realized that this past week has not been happy for me. I almost hit the stop-loss every night, fell asleep at 4 AM, and got up after 1 PM. This kind of life is not enjoyable. In this round of real trading, my intention was to do ultra-short-term compounding, but in the end, a single position lasted at most more than three days, feeling anxious, and in the early stage, I even tasted sweetness.

So the conclusion is that starting tomorrow, I will return to the ultra-short-term strategy and restore my schedule to that of a normal person. The tentative plan is (1 + 0.5% * 10) ^ 8, because this way, I can follow the original plan to pull it to 5000u next week. 😤😤😤😤😤

Unable to sleep, suddenly enlightened, updating a pinned message:
1. The trading market is a chaotic system (a term from logic), influenced by countless factors, so candlestick charts can only summarize past occurrences and cannot accurately predict the future. It's like humans cannot accurately predict the weather a week from now.
2. The emergence and digestion of market information will cause all factors to trend towards a single direction, so you should pay attention to periodic news and sudden news.
3. Because it is a chaotic system, theoretically your profits depend on mathematical probabilities, whether going long or short.
4. In essence, the probability here is actually the win rate and the profit-loss ratio.
5. Please pay attention to calculating the actual mathematical expectation of profits, for example, a win rate of 90% with a profit-loss ratio of 1:4. In reality, the mathematical expectation of profit is 1*0.9=0.9, and the mathematical expectation of loss is 4*0.1=0.4, so even if the unpopular approach of 'take profit and run, endure losses' is used, as long as the mathematical expectation calculation is reasonable, you can achieve stable profits.
6. So why do all the 'coaches' and 'financial bloggers' tell you that Martingale is doomed?
7. A. Because when you made a profit using 5x leverage, you unfortunately used 10x leverage when losing this time, the overall mathematical expectation will be negative, so try to maintain consistent leverage.
B. When your assets grow to 100k, a 40% drawdown means you lose more money, your resolve is shattered, emotions affect your win rate, and the overall mathematical expectation changes again.
C. Classic mathematical expectation requires a sufficiently large number of occurrences, which means you need a sufficiently long trading career. If you unfortunately fall to a very low asset level, do you have enough time to recover?
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Do not get tangled in their claims that the profit-loss ratio must be positive, do not disdain a 1% profit, beating fees, a more stable win rate, and reasonable mathematical expectations are the essence. (This does not mean you shouldn't use stop-losses; try using wider stop-losses.)
#悟道

Thank you for the mercy of not killing the main force. This order is actually related to my brother's wedding banquet. I sobered up from the fall and didn't expect to pull it back within an hour, so I made a slight profit and ran.

I escaped the wave this afternoon, but couldn't escape the wave just now, such is life.

It seems that the settlement is just right for him

Unfortunately missed this wave in the afternoon

Small profits ran away, so today was a day without work, let's talk about tomorrow.

There are still 10 minutes, but instead, it started to pull back, what the heck $ETH

Did you send it too early?

9:30 is getting closer, the positions that have been stuck all afternoon, can you give me a take profit $ETH

Today's plot is still like this: Slightly resisting the single → Lightly taking profits after breaking even → Sold off and returned to the original profit-taking price → Rebuilt the position → Again resisting the single → Slightly floating profit without exiting → Resisting the single again → Simply did 2 trades → Resisted the single again during the drop → Added a large position, whatever happens, if I have to stop loss and close the position, I will accept it
$ETH

The explanation is that an older brother saw your post, went to open an order, and it looks like the position opened is not small.

This month, there are only a few successful positions for anti-single take profit and escaping the top $ETH , I really find it too difficult.

Indeed, high leverage gameplay is not suitable for me

What tools do you all use for messaging, preferably those exclusive to the cryptocurrency space $ETH

Sometimes resisting the single hit can lead to death, and sometimes not resisting the single hit results in losses at the lowest point😭

How I managed to have two market reversals, both losing at the lowest point

It's been a long time since I did an order, I'm out of practice

The meme plot of A-shares has always existed

$ETH Long and short double kill, repeated lateral movement, scary