Lovely Trading

Bitcoin climbed to $86,950 Monday before reversing below $86,000 — its third rejection near $87,300 in two weeks. October Fed hike odds collapsed to 17.7% (82.3% hold probability) after September's 29,000 NFP miss, with markets now pricing a 68.7% chance of a December hike as the year-end base case. Oil fell 2%: WTI to $88.50, Brent to $99.79. The Nikkei jumped 2.5% on the rate repricing. Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in Q3 (70% vs 42%) but its market depth fell to 35-45% of Bitcoin's, down from 60%+ a year ago — thinner order books mean less capital needed to move price in either direction.Bitcoin Nears $87K Eight-Month High Before Reversing as Resistance Holds Bitcoin climbed to $86,950 Monday — within ~$500 of its September 21 high of $87,300 — before reversing below $86,000, remaining up 1.3% over 24 hours. Three rejections in two weeks at the same level ($85,500 on PCE Wednesday, $87,000 Friday post-NFP, $86,950 Monday) establishes active resistance rather than coincidence. The weekend rally accelerated through $86,000 on softer US jobs data and October hike odds falling to 17.7%, supported by the Nasdaq closing at a record high Friday. DOGE led majors at +3%, XRP/BNB/ZEC each +1-2%. A daily close above $87,000 is the first signal buyers are breaking through; continued rejection risks further consolidation after Q3's 44% gain. The broader technical picture: $87,300 sits below the 100-week moving average near $89,000 — a sustained break above both levels would be the structural confirmation.Nikkei Jumps 2.5% As Weak U.S. Jobs Data Cuts October Fed Hike BetsThe Nikkei 225 rose ~2.5% Monday as September's 29,000 NFP miss pushed October hike odds below 25% and the 10-year held near 5.25% — elevated but stable rather than surging. Tokyo Electron +5.2%, SoftBank Group +3.1%, TSMC +~3% on reports of talks with Terafab, Elon Musk's planned Texas chip venture. MSCI Asia Pacific gained ~1%. The Nikkei's 2.5% single-session gain contrasts with the KOSPI's worst quarter since Q1 2020 (-19.3% in Q3) — both are AI memory-heavy but Japan's more diversified sector composition and yen weakness near 157.8 provide a buffer Korea's Samsung/SK Hynix-concentrated index doesn't have. The 10-year at 5.25% vs the 5.36% overnight peak suggests the NFP miss has at least stabilized the long-end move without reversing it.Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin With 70% Q3 Rally, but ETH Liquidity Drops SharplyEther gained ~70% in Q3 against Bitcoin's 42% — its best quarter since Q1 2021 — but CoinGecko found ETH's median daily market depth fell to 35-45% of Bitcoin's (July 6-September 30) from 60%+ in the comparable period last year. At ~$13-14M of depth within 0.15% of price, ETH remains liquid for regular trading, but the year-over-year deterioration means the underlying order book didn't strengthen alongside the rally. Thinner liquidity amplifies moves in both directions — the same mechanism that enabled ETH's 70% Q3 gain could accelerate a reversal with less selling pressure required to break through available bids. Solana depth also fell: SOL's market depth within 2% declined from ~$28M to ~$20M year-over-year. XRP held steady at ~$30M total depth with a buy-side tilt ($18M bids vs $14M asks), despite generating 25% less average daily volume than SOL.Fed October Rate Hike Odds Fall to 17.7% as Markets Price 82.3% Chance of HoldCME FedWatch: 82.3% probability of an October hold, 17.7% for a 25bps hike — down from 64.2% hike odds a week ago. By December, the picture inverts: only 17.3% odds of rates unchanged, with a 68.7% probability of a cumulative 25bps increase and 14% odds of 50bps by year-end. The October-to-December shift is the analytically important reading: markets aren't removing tightening from the path, they're delaying it. A single month of soft data (29,000 NFP) has pushed the move from October to December — which means October 14 CPI, October's employment data, and any inflation reacceleration from oil could reverse the repricing. Bitcoin's $87,000 resistance test is happening in a window where rate relief is partial and temporary rather than structural. The 10-year at 5.25% and real yields above 2.8% remain the opportunity cost headwind regardless of what month the next hike arrives.WTI and Brent Crude Oil Prices Fall 2% as WTI Drops to $88.50WTI fell 2% to $88.50 and Brent declined 2% to $99.79 — Brent dropping below $100 for the first time since the conflict escalation peak. Saudi Arabia cut the price of its benchmark crude grade for Asian buyers, adding to the selling. Oil's retreat from its September high of ~$109 is the macro development most directly relevant to Bitcoin: the energy-driven inflation shock that pushed the 10-year to 5.36% and lifted October hike odds to 71% is materially easing. WTI at $88.50 vs the $106 September high represents a 17% decline — meaningful for core PCE's energy component and for the transmission chain that kept the Fed leaning hawkish all summer. EU countries considering releasing strategic fuel reserves under Trump administration pressure adds a second supply-side downward force.

The crypto market is set to receive $1.11 billion in token unlocks in early October 2026, with several major projects scheduled to release new supply. According to NS3.AI, Hyperliquid will unlock 3.75 million HYPE worth $340 million on October 6, and the project’s team previously said the unlocked supply will go to one institutional buyer.

Ethena will release 171.88 million ENA worth $41.52 million on October 5 for core contributors and investors. Aptos is also scheduled to release 11.31 million APT worth $9.06 million on October 11.

The unlocks may add volatility to the market and affect short-term price movements.