凡人修钱传

Tonight, there are continuous small negative factors, but $BTC has not fallen. There is indeed a demand for a rebound in the short term.
#加密市场回调

The Federal Reserve has released a "smoke signal"; Waller calls for inflation to drop while advocating for a rate cut in December!

Federal Reserve Governor Waller (Christopher Waller) spoke over the weekend, delivering a wealth of information that has left market sentiment in turmoil:
1. Dovish Signals 🕊️: He advocates for a rate cut in December, believing that inflation will eventually decrease and is "not a major issue." He also mentioned that the September employment data may be revised downward, indicating that the labor market might not be as hot as it appears on the surface.
This is good news for $BTC : Expectations for a rate cut are rising, liquidity may loosen, which is beneficial for risk assets (such as Bitcoin) to rise.

2. Hawkish Concerns 🦅: He also pointed out that the concentration of data showing no good signs and that inflation has risen.
This is bad news for $BTC : If inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay or cancel rate cuts, or even revert to a hawkish stance.

#加密市场回调 In the last two months, $BTC has been increasing on weekends, but as soon as the US stock market opens on weekdays, it immediately starts to decline.

It's almost time for the US stock market to open on Monday again. Will this week be different?

BlackRock has just transferred 2,822 $BTC and 36,283 $ETH to Coinbase.

Institutions are continuing the crazy sell-off of confidential assets.

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$BTC

Elon Musk's X platform officially launched the membership "Vanity Number" service, introducing a username trading market (Handle Marketplace), allowing users to purchase and claim previously inaccessible dormant accounts.
$BTC

$BTC

价格正处于箭头所处的位置

长线还有-50%的跌幅

$BTC
In the past two months, there has been a volatile upward rebound.
The rebound target is around 100,000.
After the rebound ends, continue the downward trend of the bear market.

$BTC Why is following trades bound to lose money?

Today, I opened a cryptocurrency (coin) I haven't checked in a long time and found a trader I had followed for quite a while. This trader experienced a huge drawdown during this one-sided decline, with profits down 77%.

I imagine those who followed midway are already facing significant losses.

Looking back, I found that this trader started trading live on June 27, 2024, just during the mid-stage of the BTC bull market.

Subsequently, the trader's profit curve remained consistent with BTC's price trend, with the drawdowns coinciding with BTC's pullback intervals.

During the uptrend, they continuously rolled profits, while during pullbacks, they held onto positions even increasing losses. They made a substantial profit during the bull market.

However, good times did not last long; BTC peaked on October 6, 2025. The trader's asset curve also peaked. The curve showed a sharp decline.

The trading habit formed during the bull market—adding to losing positions—turned into a deadly poison, plunging the return rate into the abyss until the account was wiped out.

Fortunately, they had previously withdrawn $160,000, retaining some gains.

But many retail traders following this trader weren't as lucky. Many noticed him only after his profits increased, joined the group, and followed trades on OK or Binance. Joining midway became the source of losses.

Retail traders following trades are absent when profits are made but are always present when losses occur. By checking the public trades on Binance and OK, they indeed align with expectations, with all following traders' profits being negative. There are also many who joined the group that cannot be accounted for in losses, which likely adds up significantly.

$BTC One possible trend going forward:

A two-month oscillating rise to around 100000, creating a bull trap to attract retail investors to buy in.
Then continue with a bear market one-sided decline, with a final target price around 50000.

$BTC Halfwood Xia has just released the latest forecast, believing that BTC has already reached the bottom, "The moment the bullet is chambered has arrived."

However, he believes that the bear market is not over yet and will need to continue to run sideways for a while; the price may be close to the bottom or may have already hit the bottom. Now is a good time to buy and hold spot in this price range.

Currently, Halfwood Xia's comment section is still not open.

$BTC Banmu Xia just released a prediction, believing that the probability of 80500 being the recent bottom is significantly increasing.

Banmu Xia has recently been very controversial, as the likelihood of wrong price predictions on the left side is quite high, leading to a low accuracy rate lately.

As an influential figure, Banmu Xia has closed the comments section, presumably due to receiving a lot of negative comments recently.

Michael Saylor: Even if Bitcoin falls 80%, we will still be fine

Strategy founder Michael Saylor stated in a recent interview with CNBC that he is not worried about further price declines, stating that the company "can withstand a 80%-90% drawdown and continue to operate." The company employs a strategy similar to smart banking, amplifying returns for common stock through preferred shares, which have no maturity date, and dividends are declared by the board rather than a fixed coupon, avoiding default situations. Currently, the digital credit it issues has no credit default risk.
$BTC

$BTC A few days ago, the US market fell during its hours, and rose during the Asian market hours.

Today, the Asian market also fell; have the retail investors in Asia finally run out of steam after bottom-fishing for 10 days?

$BTC Very weak, originally expected a rebound around 87500, but currently there is no support at all.
The risk of left-side trading is still too high, let's wait for the right-side trend to emerge.

$BTC continues to see a rebound to the range of 107000-108000. Only after the rebound can it continue to decline.

The market has already priced in the risk of not lowering interest rates in December, so there is an opportunity to bet on a rebound market by the end of the year.

MicroStrategy Vice President is selling his own MSTR stocks, with a total profit of about 19.69 million US dollars.

Starting from September 18, he sold the options stocks acquired at a low price in 5 batches at different prices, continuing until November 14.

$BTC

The current trend for $BTC is bearish, but that doesn't mean it will just keep falling endlessly; there will be various rebounds in between.

Around 91000, I have already bought some positions to take advantage of this rebound. I am continuously placing orders in batches from 86000 to 90000; if luck is on my side, I can catch some, and if not, that's okay.

It's fine not to trade rebounds in a bear market, just like I suggest not to trade pullbacks in a bull market.

In a bear market, it's better to rest and prepare for the bull market.

$BTC The mid-line is expected to rebound to the 108,000 level.

The trend can refer to 2022, when BTC fell near the monthly MA20 and started a rebound, creating a long trap, and then entered a deep bear market.

Currently, it has fallen near the monthly MA20, and the maximum drop to the 87,000-88,000 level will trigger a strong rebound.

$BTC went out to rest with the money given by the multi-headed brother.

BTC short-term looks like it has almost dropped to the point, and next, there will be a medium-term rebound to around 109000, which is also the last opportunity to escape.

After the rebound ends, the bear market will continue to decline.